Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 12th, 2023

Today, given we are in the midst of the All Star Break and not a ton has happened since last week’s Hot Right Now, you are getting an abbreviated version focused on the players up for auction in the most leagues right now.

Current Auctions

Jacob Degrom – 35 current auctions

Degrom is still a) the best pitcher on the planet when healthy and b) not healthy. He is down to 36.86% rostered in Ottoneu but his average salary is still over $30 and his median is $27. These auctions are almost certainly just managers trying to reduce cap penalties.

Abner Uribe – 28 current auctions

I am a little bit surprised by the interest in Uribe. There are some really great things to like, namely that he strikes out a million hitters and gets grounders from almost everyone else. Across three levels this year, he has a 41.0% K-rate and a 59.0% GB-rate. Those are elite numbers are they are two of the most important numbers for any Ottoneu reliever.

But he has also walked 15.2% of hitters across those three levels and that is also elite, but in a really bad way. You can succeed with a walk rate like that, but it isn’t easy.

Over the last five years, including this one and the shortened 2020, there have been 24 relievers who posted a walk rate over 15% and pitched enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard – this is out of 803 total reliever seasons, so it’s pretty rare to walk that many and even get to keep pitching.

Of those 24 reliever-seasons, only two had an FIP under 3.50: Brandon Workman in 2019 and Aroldis Chapman this year. Chapman is doing it with the highest K-rate of all of those high-walk pitchers at 43.2%; Workman had the third-highest at 36.4% (the one in between is another high-walk Chapman season) and they were both only a bit over 15% (15.2% for Chapman, 15.7% for Workman) not pushing up over 16% or 17%.

Uribe is walking a tight-rope. Any increase in his walk rate in MLB vs. his high-minors performance probably means he is done. Any decrease in his K-rate probably means the same. I get the intrigue – I might even take a gamble on him for $1 if I can and if I am in serious need of relief help – but buyer beware. It’s not a particularly stable profile.

Cristopher Sánchez –  26 current auctions

He was covered in this very space last week, where Lucas Kelly called him “a mid-rotation starter for the Phillies the rest of the way” after noting that he doesn’t look like the kind of high-K guy you typically want, but that “in his four 2023 starts, Sánchez has a good 9.31 K/9, compared to the average of 8.44 K/9 among MLB starters in 2023, and it’s paired with a decent 1.86 BB/9 (2023 MLB starters average: 3.05 BB/9).” Then he went out the next day and threw 4.1 solid innings at Tampa, giving up 1 R on 4 H (a solo HR). He only struck out two but he didn’t walk anyone. I don’t think we are seeing a breakout in the making, but he’s a decent streamer option to have in your rotation.

Dane Myers –  21 current auctions

Prior to this season, Myers was a Tigers prospect who struck out too much and walked too little while flashing unexciting power, at least until a 25-homer surge last season. This year he has maintained the power but completely flipped the script with his plate discipline. That drove him to his first significant run of success in the high-minors, earned him a look in Triple-A, and a quick promotion to the Marlins.

Given he is 27-years-old, that quick trip through three levels isn’t a huge surprise, and it looks like he might get a real shot with the fish, at least for now. The question with any late bloomer is “why now?” followed by “why should I believe?”

For Myers, the answer might lie in his past. Myers joined the Tigers org as a pitching prospect and only became a full-time position player in 2021. There are two different stores here and they have very different interpretations: “27-year-old career minor leaguer finally puts together a couple months of good plate discipline and gets a shot” is sort of where I startered, and it’s a story that leaves me nervous and dubious that this is more than a hot streak.

But what bout this story: “in his third year hitting minor league pitching, prospect breaksout and gets a shot with the big club.” That sounds like a pretty typical prospect timeline.

I want to see more from Myers, but if he can continue to show good plate discipline and hit for some power, I may be buying. He’s a watchlist guy for me now.

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