Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 10, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Current Auctions

Rece Hinds – 107 current auctions

When you start your career the way Hinds has started his, you are going to attract a lot of attention. Two games, 8 PA, 2 HR, 2 2B, 1 3B. Holy smokes.

But in order for a player to have THAT debut lead to THIS many auctions, he also to be more-or-less a non-prospect and that is basically the case here. Eric Longenhagen ranked 40 Reds prospects down to a 35+ FV and Hinds didn’t make that list. Of Hinds, among a group of “Power Prospects I’m Worried Won’t Hit,” he wrote:

Hinds is the most developed athlete and upper-level performer, but when you’re striking out a third of the time in the minors, your chances of consistently succeeding at the big league level are remote.

Not a ringing endorsement. That was back in April, so maybe he has changed the narrative this year by striking out less? Well, no, He is striking out over 38% of the time in Triple-A this year. He did bring that down to 36% since the start of June and 31.8% in his final ten minor league games, but now we are getting into super small samples that aren’t telling us much. If I narrowed it to his last 9 games instead of 10, he would be at 35% again.

As a counterpoint, Jhnonkensy Noel is similar – big power, concerns about strikeouts – but he brought his K-rate down a lot last year and even more this year (to 21.1% in Triple-A this year) which forces you to reconsider his potential. Hinds hasn’t done that yet.

Which all makes it sound like I would stay away from Hinds, but that isn’t where I am going to land. Maybe the Reds have seen something I am missing, which is why they called him up. Maybe he’s had improvements to his approach that will pay off moving foward. Given his power potential, I am willing to take a shot that things work out better than it appears they will. My expectation is that Hinds finds himself in a Cold Right Now column pretty soon, but I like the upside and where I have cap and roster space, I am iintrigued.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

Luis L. Ortiz – 95 current auctions

Jake Mailhot wrote about Ortiz in his Drip yesterday and I would suggest you read that.

Verdict: Don’t Go Crazy.

Angel Martinez – 77 current auctions

Martinez has long been one of those prospects who seems to do a lot of things well without doing anything great and gets identified as a utility guy rather than a true starter. But this year a couple of things have raised his profile. In addition to getting promoted, I mean.

First, his power has increased. His .221 ISO in Triple-A is the highest he has posted at any level and his six HR across 149 Triple-A and MLB PA puts him on a 20-25 HR pace.

Second, his K-rate has come way down. He has never had a strikeout issue, per se, but in the high minors, he was striking out 17-20% of the time. This year, he brought that number down to 12.3% in Triple-A.

At 22-years-old, Martinez has always been young for his level and this looks a lot like a guy growing into his tools and aging into his talent. He’s also joining a Cleveland team that seems to really value the type of utility defense he offers. We have seen them move Tyler Freeman to CF, play Daniel Schneeman all over, try out Jhonkensy Noel in the OF, use Gabriel Arias in multiple spots. Martinez can play anywhere on the IF and has been flashing a solid glove in the OF, as well. Oh, and he has been hitting second in the lineup everyday since July 4 – and that is a pretty solid lineup.

As a Cleveland fan, I have been waiting for Martinez expecting him to be a solid role player, but he is showing the kind of improvements that could make him a lot more. The upside isn’t the same as what Hinds shows, but he looks like a better player, more likely to stick and make a difference.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

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Roster Adds

Andrew Heaney – Add% Change (7 Days) – 20.1%

Much like I did with Ortiz, I am just going to point you to Jake’s piece from yesterday. I’ll just add my own caveat that as hot as Heaney has been, we have been on his roller coaster before, so don’t be surprised if the ride crashes down before the end of the year.

Verdict: Don’t Go Crazy.

Jacob Wilson – Add% Change (7 Days) – 20.1%

Wilson has an elite hit tool and puts the bat on the ball, plus he has the potential to be a very strong defensive shortstop. The kind of guy who holds down a starting job for years, plays a key role for his team, and never really has a fantasy impact. There is just very little power in the bat and there isn’t much speed in his game, so he is something like a poor man’s Nico Hoerner, without the stolen bases. That isn’t a profile that should cause much excitement in Ottoneu.

He does have 7 HR this year, which is pretty fascinating, as it is a level of power no one would have projected. Four of those came in Triple-A, in one of the most homer-friendly parks in the minors, but he was hitting in Double-A, in a less-friendly environment. That is enough reason for people to take a shot on him.

Wilson has been on my watchlists for a while, but I haven’t been willing to start auctions yet. I still feel that way.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Byron Buxton – (11.2 P/G)

This year started looking like another potentially lost year for Buxton, with poor performance and days off, but he has been on fire lately and it is hard not to think he is finally healthy and finally back. How long that lasts is anyone’s guess. Not only do you have to keep worrying about injuries, but he has a .426 BABIP dating back to June 7. He is controlling the strike outs, walking a lot, hitting for power, but also getting a lot of luck.

Luis L. Ortiz – (7.6 P/IP)

Yes, I already covered him, but over this two-week stretch, he is second in P/IP among pitchers with 10+ innings thrown and that is worth noting. The only player ahead of him is Tarik Skubal.