Ottoneu Hot Right Now: August 7, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Edwin Uceta– 29 current auctions

The Dominican-born 26-year-old reliever has 63 major league innings stretched across stints with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Rays. He has never recorded a save, but this season has recorded his first three holds and finds himself as a middle-reliever in the Rays’ pen. It’s not clear what is causing this spike in Ottoneu auctions. Maybe it’s his above-average ability to get strikes:

Uceta:          CStr%: 18.2%, SwStr%: 15.0%, CSW%: 33.2%

MLB AVG:  CStr%: 16.4%, SwStr%: 10.9%, CSW%: 27.4%

In addition, Uceta’s K% of 33.3% is well above the 22.3% MLB average. This season, he added a cutter that has played nicely off his sinker:

Baseball Savant

Stuff+ gives him excellent overall scores (Stuff+: 115, Location+: 108, Pitching+: 109) and the adjustments he’s made in 2024 are grabbing fantasy managers’ attention. The question is, will his team take notice and move him into more high-leverage roles that will increase his value?

David Festa– 27 current auctions

A 2.22 HR/9 and a 2.22 BB/9 combination is scary, not just because the numbers are exactly the same, but because home runs and walks don’t mix. The 24-year-old now has 24.1 IP under his belt and 10 of those innings came before a demotion. He returned to the big leagues on July 24th and has improved his walk rate since, bringing him to that better than average 2.22 BB/9. It’s difficult to determine whether a young pitcher has fixed their command issues in just a few starts, so he’ll likely need to be monitored closely rather than rolled out into the starter position in fantasy lineups. Festa’s 109 Stuff+ grade on his fastball is promising and he backs it up with a good slider (Stuff+ 120), but he doesn’t necessarily have a good third pitch just yet.

Victor Vodnik– 19 current auctions

RosterResource now has Vodnik listed as the Rockies closer. He’s certainly worth an add for the saves and holds but he is a pitcher with risk at only 24 years old. In his last 10.1 innings, he’s only given up one run, and collected a win and five saves. His 20.9% K% is below what the average major league reliever generates, and that combined with the fact he plays in Colorado should give managers with ERAs to consider some pause.

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Roster Adds

Hayden Birdsong – Add% Change (7 Days) – 32.3%

Before last night’s start against the Washington Nationals, Birdsong’s ERA was a nice, sub-three, 2.97. After giving up seven earned runs on five hits including two home runs while walking three, his ERA has rocketed to 4.73. This can happen. Mike Podhorzer wrote about Birdsong’s peculiar swinging strike rates given the stuff grades on his pitches, and pointed out his inflated LOB% and lack of control. Here is a table summary:

Secondaries good, fastball bad. This is typically not a sustainable combination and perhaps the Nationals were the first team to take notice. He certainly seems like a long run play in Ottoneu as he’s only 22 and has a lot of room to grow. But, keep an eye on his BB% and HR%. He may be the type of pitcher who could either bring your fantasy team big positive or big negative points with each start.

Brandon Sproat – Add% Change (7 Days) – 18.5%

The 23-year-old Mets prospect was recently promoted to AAA. He threw a clean inning in the Futures Game and Eric Longenhagen wrote about Sproat in his Notes on Every Top 100 Arm:

He’s getting comfortable locating his fastball to the parts of the zone where its new movement plays best, and this should theoretically help it miss more bats than his college version did. He’s kept throwing hard amid the changes and has been living in the upper-90s without incident for several years now. The delivery tweaks have added depth to Sproat’s breaking pitches, too, but cost him some changeup tail. Especially if he can keep throwing strikes the way he has since his promotion to Double-A, Sproat is going to have multiple plus pitches and starter-quality command.

He seems like a good future pickup for building teams.

Austin Wells – Add% Change (7 Days) – 17.2%

The 25-year-old past prospect is now the Yankees catcher who has increased his batting average in each month of the season in 2024:

Mar/Apr: .196   ->   May: .213   ->   June: .238   ->    July: .277   ->   Aug: .417

While he’s not a .400 hitter, he’s figured out how to strike out less often. His K% may still be above 20% on the season, but he’s moving in the right direction:

Statcast pitch values tell us that Wells still has room to improve when hitting fastballs and changeups, but he’s dialed in on breaking balls. His Zone-Contact% is slightly below the major league average while keeping a somewhat aggressive approach, so we may not be looking at a full breakout season just yet. However, he’s showcasing the ability to make adjustments in the major leagues.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Santiago Espinal – (11.1 P/G)

The Reds utility man has a .383 slugging percentage on the season, but he is “Hot Right Now” with three doubles, two home runs, and two stolen bases in the last 14 days. During that time he has posted a .476/.476/.905 slash line. He may still be a bench player, but he can play all over and his bat has been so good of late that he lined up in the DH spot once in this sample.

Alex Call – (9.6 P/G)

After some time in AAA, Call has come back with a vengeance and he’s slashing .429/.500/.643 in August. He has stolen a base and hit three doubles in that time. He brings the added benefit of not having a platoon tag and if he continues to hit, there’s not anyone likely to fight him for playing time.

Chad Kuhl – (6.2 P/IP)

Am I suggesting running to auction for the 31-year-old White Sox reliever? No. Like the lifeguard at your local pool, I’m screaming, “Walk!” Just consider it, ok? RosterResource has him second in line to the closer, John Brebbia. Yes, Kuhl has had 67.1 career innings as a reliever with a 5.08 ERA, but his slider is suddenly grading out with a 147 Stuff+ measurement, and that places him 25th among relievers with at least 30 IP.

Tanner Gordon – (6.5 P/IP)

Listed as one of the Rockies top prospects, Gordon now has four major league starts on his stat sheet. The lastest two were great from an Ottoneu points perspective as he gave up only one walk across both starts and zero home runs. He did, however, get blasted for six homers in his first two starts. This command first pitcher has a low 17.6% K%, but he pairs it with a low 3.3% BB%. An above-average sinker (Stuff+) keeps the ball on the ground and may give him what he needs to be successful in Colorado.