Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 7, 2025

We’re now more than a full week into the season, so clearly we have enough data to actually evaluate these auctions and adds and hot starts, right? Right?

Ok, we don’t, but we are going to try anyway!

 

As in previous years, I am also going to rate each player on an updated version of the scale I used last year. The big change is that I am combining the two tiers (Don’t Go Crazy and Don’t Lose) into one (Don’t Miss Out). I found that last year the “Don’t Lose” tier just never came up. There are free agents I like a lot, but I was never willing to say “yes, go get this guy at all costs, no matter what it does to your team.” So I won’t try. The updated scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as the only cuts I have to make are guys I am okay dropping.
• Don’t Miss Out – I want this player on my roster and I am willing to make an aggressive bid to do get them. How aggressive depends on how much cap space I have and what cuts are available, but I am willing to go beyond the obvious “this guy isn’t helping anyway” cuts and make some tough choices to make this work.

Current Auctions

Ben Casparius – 44 Auctions

If your analysis of Casparius is “for all the talent the Dodgers have, they seem to be relying on this bullpen arm more than anyone, so he must be good,” I can’t really argue. Jack Dreyer passed him on IP, but going into play Sunday, Casparius led all Dodger relievers in innings and was second in appearances. He already has three holds in five appearances, which, for context, puts him on pace for more than 70 appearances and more than 40 holds. He clearly isn’t the Dodgers top high leverage guy, but the beauty of a team being on pace to win 734 games (roughly) is that there will be more than enough holds to go around.

Relievers who get a lot of holds are valuable in Ottoneu points leagues. Good relievers who get a lot of holds are very valuable in Ottoneu points leagues. Good relievers are valuable in Ottoneu 4×4 leagues. And good relievers who throw a ton of innings are even more valuable.

Which gets us to an important question – is Casparius good? The answer might depend on his walk rate. Casparius has very consistently, at every level, walked more than 10% of hitters he faces. This isn’t a good thing for a pitcher to do. For most relievers, the worst-case scenario is that you walk a lot of guys and then give up a lot of fly balls, leading to a lot of HR with men on base. I’ve done some analysis and it turns out HR with men on base are not good for pitchers. Shocking, I know.

Casparius doesn’t get a ton of grounders, which couples with his historical walk rates to make me very, very nervous. And yet in 15.1 MLB IP, Casparius has never given up a HR. Not one! That’s a pretty small sample of innings, but 0 HR is still a good – and surprising – number. He has been able to limit hard contact and therefore avoid the long ball.

And, getting back to those walks, this year they aren’t as big of an issue. His walk rate is just 7.7% which isn’t some world-beating, elite-command type number, but it is much better than anyone should have reasonably expected coming into the season. And it follows up on an even better number (6.1%) in Spring Training. Thought he did give up a HR in Spring.

All in all, I see a guy with good but not great swinging strike rates who doesn’t induce much chase from hitters, and gives up a lot of fly balls. If he can control the walks, he could make that work, but I am not quite ready to trust him. His zone rate isn’t special nor has it really improved and the improved walk rate (in such a small sample that it might not be real) is driven by getting ahead of hitters with first pitch strikes. Without getting more chase or more whiffs, I think he will see one of two things happen: hitters will get more aggressive and jump on those first pitches or he won’t be in the zone as much on first pitches and more walks will come around (plus more hitter’s counts so more HR).

Verdict: Don’t Stress. Nothing wrong with streaming the hot reliever and seeing if it sticks, but I don’t think you will regret skipping this one.

Geraldo Perdomo – 43 Auctions

It feels like we do this every year with Perdomo. No one really believes in him, he goes on a hot streak, the Diamondbacks make it clear they believe in him, and he gets picked up a bunch of places. And then, in the end, he isn’t useful for Ottoneu. He’s never finished a season over 4.2 P/G and that season he had only 37 PA. He draws walks and puts the ball in play, so if you are playing 4×4, you at least get a solid OBP out of him, but with a weak SLG and very few HR. For all the OBP skills, his career high in runs is 71 and he’s not even a lock for 10+ SB for you 5×5 players.

And yet, here we are, with Perdomo getting auctioned in a bunch of leagues. Has anything changed this year? Yes, and no. Yes, he is putting up numbers in a small sample that blow away his 2023-2024 numbers. He already has a HR (and two SB). His already-low K-rate is way down, though he is also walking a lot less. He has a .457 SLG and .335 wOBA which would both be career highs.

But also no. That decreased K-rate doesn’t result from any major change at the plate. He is chasing a little less but that is mostly because he is swinging less overall. He is making a bit more contact but that is entirely on O-contact. His SwStrk% has improved but going from 4% last year to 3% in 9 games is very likely just noise. His average EV is up to 89.1 from 87.1, but in such a small sample that is hard to read into and it comes with 0 barrels and a decrease in his hard-hit rate. And all those statcast number were from before a game Sunday in which he O-4 without contact over 89 MPH, which will bring those numbers down further.

And even if you look at the results in the context of a sample this small, this isn’t some new level of performance for Perdomo.

This isn’t the best 9-game run he has had in his career, by slugging or wOBA. It doesn’t even represent a particularly unique run for him. Basically, this is part of the Perdomo experience. Sometimes he hits a HR, and when he does, he carries a high SLG and high wOBA for a bit. Sometimes he runs into BABIP luck and when you walk a decent amount and don’t strike out much, good BABIP luck will mean good overall results. But in the absence of any real reason to believe he has changed, this looks like yet another good, brief run from a guy who will end the year well below replacement level.

Verdict: Don’t Bother.

Quick Hits

• Jorge Polanco – 41 auctions – Polanco is off to a great start and his 2024 was a bit better (not good, but better) under the hood than it looked on the surface. 2024 was a real downturn for him but it was smaller than you might think and I would be happy to bet on him returning the guy we thought he was before 2024.
• Kyren Paris – 36 auctions – Having two HR already is definitely an interesting result, but the sample is even smaller for him than others and I am pretty skeptical that he is about to experience a power breakout. That said, he is only 23, he is pulling the ball more, and he is already making a lot more hard contact than we would have expected, so I get taking a shot on him.
• Jake Magum – 36 auctions – I am always skeptical of late breakouts. Late breakouts that come with a low ISO, no HR, limited walk and a high BABIP? I am out.

Roster Adds

Emilio Pagán – Leagues with Adds (7 days) 40.5%

In last week’s Hot Right Now, I said not to bother except in 5×5 where you need saves. My summary was basically this:

But other than that, how much do you want to bet on a homer-prone reliever bringing down his HR/FB rate while pitching half the time in Great American Ballpark? And how much do you want to bet on a 27 pitch sample reflecting a true (and massive) change in the quality of his stuff?

Since then, he has made two appearances, throwing 2 IP with a walk, a strikeout and a hit. His Stuff+, up to 160 a week ago, is down to 120 as of today. which is still better than 105 last year, but gives you a sense of where things are trending.

Oh and he has not had a save in that time. That is primarily because the Reds haven’t had a save in that time, and he did get the 9th in a game they won 11-7, but were only up 10-7 before a top-9 run took away his save shot. So he is still probably the closer, for now, but I am not sure how long he’ll hold the job given I don’t trust his performance and he isn’t exactly piling up saves in the meantime.

Verdict: Still Don’t Bother.

Jordan Hicks – Leagues with Adds (7 days) 39.0%

Sunday was pretty disappointing on the surface, but there was some good signs, as well. He managed 10 whiffs on 37 swings and a 32% CSW. He struck out five over 5.1 IP with just one walk. He gave up two HR and that basically sunk what was otherwise a pretty good start. Those two HR are killers in most Ottoneu leagues, but he was two outs from a quality start and the overall line wasn’t terrible.

The frustrating part was that the two HR came in his home park, where he should be less susceptible to HR, and to the Mariners who haven’t been hitting much of anything. That said, getting taken deep by Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh is no cause for shame.

Last year he faded after a strong start. This year the strikeouts are up and the whiffs today were a good sign. I don’t know that I want to hold him through September and I will be willing to move on if he struggles more, but I think he’s a nice potential add where you need pitching.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

Quick Hits

• Otto Lopez – 35.9% – He has really struggled since I called him a “Don’t Stress” last week, but where I have him, I am still holding.
• Gavin Sheets – 34.7% – Sheets is a platoon bat but he is a good platoon bat in a good lineup. Watch his usage – if he is pulled often for PH, it will limit his PA per start and hurt his value. Otherwise, he’s super useful.
• Luke Jackson – 32.8% – I liked him last week and he has been good since then, so nothing has changed for me.

Hot Performers

High P/G or P/IP performers over the last two weeks (or, for this week, since opening day), with an eye on players rostered in less than 50% of leagues.

Edmundo Sosa –  6.1% Rostered, 9.8 P/G

You should check out Leo Morgenstern’s piece on Sosa’s hidden season, because it is both interesting and a nice profile of Sosa. You should then note that Sosa is super valuable to the Phillies. You should then also note that Sosa has extreme platoon splits and that he is on the small side of the platoon. And you should then note that Sosa won’t start a ton except when guys are hurt or need days off and when he does start, you only want to use him vs. LHP and he will be at risk to be pulled for a PH at any time.

None of that means he will never be useful – if there is an injury in Philly and Sosa gets a regular job, you can absolutely pick him up to be a small-side platoon bat. His defense should help him stay on the field and maybe not lose PA to PH every time he starts.

For now, there is no action to take here. But if he starts playing vs. every LHSP and getting 4-5 PA in those starts, he could be worth a buck.

Mitchell Parker – 31.2% Rostered, 5.2 P/IP

Parker has made two starts and they have both been pretty good for Ottoneu managers, yet nearly 70% of leagues are leaving him on the wire. That is up from a week ago and with 10 auctions going right now, it will likely be up more a week from now, but it is still pretty low given how many pitching-starved managers I talk to.

The problem with Parker, though, isn’t the what, it’s the how. Parker has a 0.73 ERA with a 3.26 FIP and a 5.20 xFIP, which is what happens when you lack strikeouts (14.0%), give up too many walks (12.0%), and are surviving with a 93.3% LOB% and a .243 BABIP. He will eventually give up HR and unless the walks and strikeouts move dramatically, it that ERA is going to go flying up towards that xFIP. And that is why is he is rostered in less than a third of leagues and why I would be fine leaving him in free agency.