Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 3, 2024

The season is going full speed ahead and while it is still too soon to draw any grand conclusions from early performances, that won’t stop us from trying to find an edge here or there. Being quick to grab a potential breakout performance comes with risk. You have to make a cut to add that player. You have to spend budget.

But acting fast also comes with upside. A guy who looks risky now and therefore only costs $1-$2 may look less risky in a couple of weeks and cost you $5 or more. And so we, our first truly in-season Hot Right Now of 2024.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

But, for one more week, we are skipping hot performers. We’ll be back with that when the performances have gone on a bit longer. It hasn’t even been a week yet!

I am also going to try something new today and I would love your feedback. I am going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Current Auctions

Ronel Blanco – 124 auctions

Throwing a no-hitter in your 8th MLB start will certainly drive up interest in you. And when you are rostered in just 5.6% of leagues going into that start, there are a LOT of leagues out there that can start auctions. So this is no surprise.

But before we go off the deep end, let’s remember a few things. First, there were reasons no one was super interested in this guy a week ago. His previous MLB experience has been not impressive. Prior to 2023, the last time he made more starts than relief appearances was 2016, in rookie ball. He has never had a particularly impressive showing in Double- or Triple-A. Which is why he debuted at 28, was still a rookie at 29, and just had his first successful MLB start at 30.

Let’s also remember that throwing a no-no, while an incredible accomplishment, is not always a sign of things to come. The list of pitchers to throw a no-hitter is long and peppered with stars, but it also includes a large number of journeymen (or worse) who found greatness for an evening.

Given his track record, I am a bit skeptical, as you can probably tell. He did shift his strategy significantly in his start Monday, going with 34% changeups, 32% sliders, and 30% fastballs. Last year he was 49% slider, 40% fastball, and just 9% change (he also throws a rarely-used curve). So if you are looking for a reason to believe this career minor leaguer who showed no real signs of MLB success is suddenly worth rostering in Ottoneu, that might be the best one.

But I am staying away. I don’t think the next start will be nearly as good and as the Astros get healthy (Justin Verlander, in particular), I don’t think Blanco stays in the rotation.

Verdict: Don’t Bother.

Oswaldo Cabrera – 84 auctions

I might have been a year early on Cabrera, as he was a favorite of mine going into 2023. He was solid in 2022, not elite by any means, but interesting. He played a bunch of positions, so he could be used all over your lineup.

But the Statcast data was not great (.287 xwOBA) and the plate discipline was acceptable (25.7% K-rate, 8.8% BB-rate) but not good enough to carry that batted ball profile. He had carried higher ISOs in the minors and I was hoping to see some plate discipline improvement with a bit more pop in 2023.

I got the former, but not the latter. He was more patient in 2023 than 2022 and made contact at a higher rate, perhaps in part because he was being more selective about what pitches to swing at. But his hard-hit and barrel rates went down and so even the shiny new strikeout rate couldn’t save him from a drop in xwOBA (down t0 .259). And so I cut bait – this is what he is, right?

Five games into 2024, Cabrera has a .501 wOBA (.501?!) and his barrel and hard-hit rates are up! No wonder everyone is jumping in! But under the hood, he is still the same guy. His K-rate is up (he has again decreased his swing rate in the early days and is making contact at a higher rate, but the patience has maybe gone too far) and his barrel rate is up to 7.1% (6.3% in 2022) and his hard-hit rate is up to 35.7% (34.8% in 2022). His xwOBA is actually down to .257.

For Ottoneu Prestige League teams, I get the interest – as long as he is playing, he serves a nice role for that competition – but otherwise, I think this is just a hot start that will fade fast.

Verdict: Don’t Bother (or, for OPL, Don’t Stress).

Daniel Hudson – 70 auctions

On the one hand, Daniel Hudson is 37 years old and threw only three innings last year. On the other, he has already thrown three this year and his 30 innings since coming to the Dodgers in 2022 have been terrific. The Dodgers usage of him, however, does not suggest a lot of high-leverage innings. He got his one hold pitching the 6th inning of Sunday’s game against the Cardinals with the Dodgers up 2-0.

He did face the Cardinals 9, 1 and 2 hitters, so you can make a case he was getting high-impact outs, but I don’t think he is going to be a key cog in that pen. For example, as I am writing, the Dodgers are trying to close out a 5-4 win over the Giants. Monday, Hudson didn’t pitch (Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly, and Dinelson Lamet did). Tuesday, as I am working, they got through 8 IP with Brasier as an opener, 4.1 from Ryan Yarbrough in a bulk role, 0.2 from Alex Vesia, and 1.2 innings from Michael Grove, and just turned to closer Evan Phillips for the the last out of the 8th and presumably the entire 9th.

As effective as he has been and with the large number of games the Dodgers are likely to win, I don’t think you can rely on a ton of holds or, to be honest, on a ton of innings. I love my cheap bullpens and he is a good fit, but I am not breaking the bank.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

Brady Singer – 60 auctions

Remember 2022, when Brady Singer was the 25-year-old ace for the Royals, putting up great rates despite limited strikeouts by limiting walks and fly balls? Then 2023 happened.

But in his first start of 2024, Singer went 7 IP, striking out 10 and walking just 1. He also had a 78.6% ground ball rate which is both unsustainable and a great way to avoid homers. This was a bit shocking coming off a brutal spring training in which he looked like the bad version of himself.

So why should we trust that start? Well, I am not totally sure we should, but there were some interesting things at play. Singer has been over 50% sinkers every year of his career. Sunday, he threw 54% sliders, 28% sinkers, 14% four-seamers, and 4% changeups. That is a pretty significant shift in repertoire. He also had increased the velo on both of his fastballs.

Having said that, the general pattern here – sinker/slider mix – is still more or less what he has always done and he lacks a true third pitcher (though maybe that four-seamer can kind of help if he can use it effectively). So there is still a lot of risk here. He had two starts of 55+ points last August, so this start (55 exactly) isn’t really an outlier. And even with those three starts in there, his last ten starts have been worth 3.81 P/G, thanks to two -20 point starts balancing things out.

I think he is worth a shot to see if this is a real change. Maybe going slider first and foremost, with a more even mix on his fastballs will make all the difference in the world. Or maybe the White Sox (who put up one of those -20’s last year) will torch him this week. I might start him against the Sox, but it is a risky play and you are going to have to be careful about matchups for a while.

Verdict: Don’t Stress.

_________________________

Roster Adds

The two most added players this week were Yimi Garcia (added in 36.56% of leagues) and Luis Gil (31.56%) and I covered both in last week’s Hot Right Now.

Only one other player was added in more than 20% of leagues.

Ian Hamilton – Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 23.75%

Hamilton has had up-and-down performances in the minors, with walks a consistent harbinger of bad news. But he was very strong for the Yankees last year and was one of my primary bullpen targets in auctions this year, in part because he was being overlooked by others. Which is why he was available to be added in nearly a quarter of leagues.

The walks were still not ideal last year, but he got enough strikeouts to make up for that and a 55% groundball rate helped limit damage even after a walk. In the early going this year, he is still slider first, with two fastballs behind it, but he has added velocity to the heat. He is yet to issue a walk in three innings (though his zone% is down, which is a little concerning).

If he is still out there for you to add (and he is available in nearly 40% of leagues), he is a guy I want to add. He’s a reliever and I never like to go crazy for relievers, but I am willing to make room for him. I would cut a more expensive reliever. I would bid a few dollars if I have plenty of cap space. Don’t go cutting a productive OF or a useful SP, but if you can easily make room, you should.

Verdict: Don’t Go Crazy.