Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 12th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Kris Bubic– 202 current auctions

That is not a typo. When a player is up for auction in more than 200 leagues, that’s HUGE movement. But rather than break him down in a couple paragraphs, I am going to give you three quick notes:

1. I am bidding on him everywhere I can with my bid based on how much cash I think I can reasonably spend. I love the upside.
2. He’s made huge strides in his Stuff+ ratings, which can be a great early indicator.
3. Our own Jake Mailhot is excited.

Hmmm, actually, reading #1 and #3, it occurs to me Jake is in two of my leagues. I am going to go increase my bids.

Anthony DeSclafani – 79 current auctions

I covered Desclafani less than a week ago in my first start wonders piece and since then he made a second start and it was, if anything, better than his first. Ok, it was against the Royals so maybe it wasn’t that exciting. But he did what he needed to do. I am still buying.

Bryce Elder – 74 current auctions

Pitching has been less impressive this year than last and it shows in these auctions. That is a lot of teams fishing for innings. In Elder’s first two starts, the basics have looked good – more than a strikeout per inning and walks mostly in control. He’s managed a 0.00 ERA and 2.50 FIP, with some batted ball luck (BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB%) helping out.

Just how much batted ball luck becomes more obvious when you look at his xERA. Based on the Statcast data on Elder, his xERA is 5.78. He’s getting hit hard and hit hard often and hitters have nothing to show for it. Why are they hitting him so hard? His 66 stuff+ rating might have something to do with that.

I have been bidding on Elder where I need pitching, but having taken a deeper dive, I am going to back out those bids. There is a correction coming and the winners of these auctions are going to feel it.

Orlando Arcia – 70 current auctions

In all the Vaughn Grissom excitement, people missed that Arcia was quite good last year. His .321 wOBA was a career-best and he was on pace for about a two-win season. He set career-highs in EV, Max EV, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. Now in 2023, he is picking up right where he left off, improving even further.

The .414 BABIP won’t stay and I am not willing to buy into Arcia as a player with a consistent 25% HR/FB rate. But he doesn’t need to be that. He was a 4.5 P/G bat in 2022 (pay no attention to the 3.77 number on his Ottoneu player page – he wasn’t getting a full 4+ PA per game and now he is) and might be even better this year. Grissom is still around and could displace Arcia, but as long as he is playing, he is 2B/SS/OF eligible and useful at all three spots.

Geraldo Perdomo – 52 current auctions

Perdomo has been on my radar for a few years. I love guys who can draw a walk and limit strikeouts. But he’s always lacked enough contact quality to make that plate discipline stand up.

This year, things have been different. Kind of. He’s walking like always, but this year he has a .375 ISO, suggesting power gains that could make him a viable Ottoneu SS. MI is always thin and feels even more so this year, so a “viable Ottoneu SS” has real value. And, as a result, I am one of the managers who recently started a Perdomo auction.

But don’t ignore that “kind of” from the last paragraph. Perdomo’s max EV is 100.9. He has 0 barrels (yes, zero). The hard-hit rate is a very bad 16.7%. So why am I tentatively buying in? The walk rate is good. He isn’t hitting the ball hard, but he is hitting it on a line and you don’t have to hit it hard for a line drive to turn into a hit. His xwOBA is .334 – that’s still pretty solid.

My guess is I’ll use him for a month, maybe two if things go well, as a backup MI option, and then he’ll end up as a cut. But if he can keep hitting line drives and walking, he can piece together a solid season.

–

Roster Adds

Brice Turang, Leauges with an Add (7 Days) – 50.64%

Let’s start with 5×5 leagues: Go get Turang in 5×5 leagues. He’s a threat to steal 30 bases and he can easily carve out a fantasy role a la Jorge Mateo, Jon Berti, etc., even if he brings nothing else to the table.

But in your 4×4 leagues? Your points leagues? He needs to do more. And so far he hasn’t been bad. 4.41 P/G isn’t great, but it’s not bad and it is hiding an even better performance. On April 1, he pinch ran, stole a base, and later went 0-1, getting just 0.9 points in a game he didn’t start. On April 5, he came on as a PH and went 0-2. On April 8, he came on as a defensive replacement. In his seven starts, he has put up 45.2 points, for 6.46 points per game as a starter. That’s pretty great.

I don’t think that level of performance is sustainable, but as discussed with Arcia and Perdomo above, it doesn’t take THAT much to be a useful MI in Ottoneu. He is showing he can do that.

Brian Anderson, Leauges with an Add (7 Days) – 50.32%

Anderson had some good years with the Marlins but fell on hard times the last couple of seasons. Getting out of Miami seems to have reinvigorated Anderson. Being on a team with playoff aspirations in a park that doesn’t swallow flyballs will do that.

The good for Anderson is a big jump in walk-rate and excellent contact quality, seemingly driven by improved patience. Anderson is swinging at the fewest pitches of his career, leading to an obscene 18.4% walk rate, but also a career-high 31.6% strikeout rate. The increased selectivity may also be allowing him to tap into his power more often, with a career-best 47.4% hard-hit rate and a downright silly 31.6% barrel rate.

I think the sample is still too small to get too excited, given the track record we can look at. But Anderson, at just under 30, is still young enough to recover his form and get back to his prior performance. The changed approach gives me some hope he has made the necessary adjustments to be effective again.

Adam Duvall, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 48.08%

Duvall was covered in this space last week and I don’t have much to add except to apologize to all those managers now that Duvall has a broken wrist. I suspect he’ll appear in Cold Right Now next week.

Orlando Arcia, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 46.79%

He’s covered above!

Pierce Johnson, Leagues with an Add – 37.5%

Like Turang, he is worth adding in 5×5 because he appears to be the closer in Colorado and being a closer makes you a must-add in 5×5. In other formats? I am staying away. I just don’t trust Colorado relievers and there are plenty of other relievers with up-and-down track records and interesting skills to pick up who don’t have Coors as their home.

That said, I was always out on Daniel Bard, as well. So if you want to be more risk-seeking than I am, go for it.

–

Hot Performers

How many posts can you add to post-hype to accurately describe Victor Robles? Through two cups of coffee in 2017 and 2018 he looked like a star and in his rookie 2019 season he looked solid and then…well, then things weren’t as good.

But this year. Oh this year! So the question is, do we trust it? For 5×5, I do. He is swinging more aggressively in the zone and making contact at a much higher rate, bringing down his swinging strike rate and his k-rate. For a guy who lacks power, he needs to be putting the ball in play more often than he did in the past and he is doing that. But he’s still not hitting the ball well (.059 ISO, 3% barrel rate) and I don’t really see any reason to think that will change. I think he can put up a high BABIP and produce some value that way, but he’s still not going to be a game-changing hitter, at least outside leagues with SB as a category.

Carlos Santana is barely rostered but he is doing Carlos Santana things – being patient, taking walks, showing some power – and as long as he is doing that he is worth a look as an extra 1B/util bat. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha has a 5.64 P/IP this year including a 56.2-point start this week. And he put up 4.2 P/IP last year, which is pretty solid. Expect more like ’22 than ’23 the rest of the way, but that is a pretty nice line to have available on your bench when needed.