Ottoneu: Get Your Money Right! Pitcher Edition

Last week I detailed how I am preparing for an upcoming Ottoneu re-draft and how I set my hitter targets. In this post, I finish the job and detail my approach to targeting pitchers. I should note that this is an iterative process. It is necessary to go back and forth to figure out a good balance between hitting and pitching and so much of that is dictated by who you have on the free-agent list. Regardless, I’m a planner and need to set my targets ahead of time. I need to see what happens if Plan A fails and what Plan B really looks like. Sadly, I was never the kid in school who could just roll out of bed, head to the exam in their pajamas, and get an A without studying.

Remember that it’s important, before setting your draft targets, to ask yourself:

1. How much money do I have?

2. Where do I need to spend?

3. How is inflation impacting your league?

Here’s an updated look at my roster when taking into consideration the max price I could pay to acquire my hitter targets from my previous post:

Roster: 28 of 40
Cap: $282 of $390 ($10 held out)
Ready to spend: $108

Needed Starters:
SP – 4
RP (CL) – 2
RP – 1

Needed Bench:
SP – 2
RP – 1

The best thing that you can do for yourself in any fantasy baseball league or baseball analysis, in general, is to figure out how to merge, concatenate, and join data sets from various sources. Whether you do it in excel python or R, it’s important to be able to utilize FanGraphs’ .csv downloads. Just like I did with hitter data, I’m merging the following datasets together to find my targets:

-league free agents
-2023 projections (steamer)
-2023 auction calculator values (steamer, FanGraphs points leagues)

I created a projected P/IP column in my dataset but sorted by total points projected descending. I also created one target subset for starters and one for relievers. Here are the best players according to total points in both subsets:

–

Note on inflation:
Notice that the adjusted dollars column accounts for inflation more than the hitters’ adjustment in last week’s post. It seems reasonable to assume that inflation would be somewhere around 20% in this league matched with the fact that pitching is usually sought after a little more aggressively. While it may not be the right approach to adjust hitters and pitchers differently, I’d prefer to price my pitcher targets higher given the huge drop-off outside of the top starting pitchers available as free agents. I’m also not adjusting players with a negative value. The  “Dollars” column will do just fine with helping determine where they stand relative to other players.

Needed:
SP – 4
Julio Urías $18-$20
Charlie Morton $15-$18
Lucas Giolito $7-$9
Jesús Luzardo $6-$8

RP (CL) – 2
Josh Hader $20-$25
Kenley Jansen $12-$15

RP – 1
Jonathan Loáisiga $2

Possible Max Cost: $97

When I first saw Cole as the best pitcher available, I thought, I’m all in! Then, I gave him a healthy $60 expected salary and everything fell apart. There’s plenty of inflation in this league and I know that he was cut at $57 in January so I’m overestimating, but don’t think I would be far off. Once I ditched that plan, I saw a wildly better plan appear. Spreading that possible $60 salary around the FA pool makes my prospective team appear stronger. It will allow me to pick up a solid Urías/Morton combo with a hope for a Giolito rebound and a Luzardo return to what he was in early 2022. However, the really beautiful part of this plan is that I have money left over for Hader and Jansen. I’ve accomplished my need for four starters and two closers and have $11 (plus $10 for in-season moves) to play with when looking to fill out my bench and room for plenty of flexibility. I like the idea of keeping that money, but using it early for relief pitchers. I have the added benefit of writing the FanGraphs Bullpen Report at least once a week, and because of that, I feel confident picking up relievers after the draft and once the season begins. It’s also another reason you should read the Bullpen Report!

After a quasi re-build, I have a lot of dough to dish out at the draft and I’m looking forward to building a competitive team. For some of you Ottoneu veterans out there, this may seem like elementary pre-draft planning. However, for first, second, or even third-year Ottoneu players, the re-draft can seem daunting. The key is to check in on your money, see who’s available and put together a plan that both gets you the players you need while also having some money to play with at the end of the draft. In addition, and this is very important, I’ve made sure I have enough money to cover my roster. In other words, this plan I’ve laid out still leaves me with five roster spots to fill, so I must have at least $5 to fill those spots. It’s another reason I’m deciding not to go after Cole. This plan is solid, and this plan is sound, but like Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Luckily for me, getting punched in the mouth is a metaphor for someone else outbidding me on the Morton/Urías combo and while that will hurt emotionally, my beautiful mug will be just fine.