Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Sept 9, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts/Injuries

Jeff McNeil, Add% Change (7 days): -20.1%

McNeil is being dropped because his season is over, thanks to a fractured wrist. Given that, the question in front of Ottoneu players is whether they should be holding onto McNeil for next year (or picking him up if someone else dorpped him) or moving on.

McNeil looks like a guy who has had crazy swings in his career, from near-elite wOBAs to near-DFA wOBAs, but when you look at little deeper, he has been pretty steady in terms of his skills. Walk rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate, hard hit rate, exit velocity, launch angle have all varied in pretty limited ranges. His pull rate has bounced around, with four seasons at 38.9% or higher and three seasons at 35.6% or lower. And it’s not a huge surprise that the high-pull years are also the only years in which he has double-digit HR (2020 being the one year he had a high pull rate and didn’t get to 10 HR).

The wild swings in results have been heavily based on BABIP:

If you want a positive sign, McNeil posted the highest pull rate of his career this year and the second-highest ISO (.146 this year, .142 in both 2018 and 2020, with a .214 in the 2019 Rabbit Ball year).

This does show some upside, but boy are there are lot of risks. If the wrist heals well and doesn’t impact his swing, and if he doesn’t experience meaningful skill decline at age 33, and if he maintains that pull-rate, and if he gets a bounceback in his BABIP, and if the Mets don’t view him as a player that can be upgraded and moved to a bench role…well then there is a chance for a rebound. That’s a lot of “ifs.”

Max Kepler, Add% Change (7 days): -16.6%

From July 4 through August 13, Kepler had a really nice run with a 132 wRC+, helped by a .412 BABIP. When that went south, so did his overall performance. After a brutally bad two weeks, he was placed on the IL with patellar tendonitis, which may or may not end Kepler’s season – and his career with the Twins.

Set to be a free agent, Kepler had a chance to get a pretty nice contract if his 2024 had looked like his 2023. Unfortunately (that stellar stretch aside), it did not. Kepler is a guy I have liked for a while, as the skills are there for him to be a reliable, productive fantasy OF. He has shown us that for a season here or a season there, but never consistently. And as a result, he isn’t a keeper or a guy I am targeting this off-season. He’ll be a “late auction, do I need an OF, oh Kepler is out there, okay, sure” addition in auctions next year (pending where he lands).

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Rafael Devers, -0.1 P/G

Devers started the year with concerns about a lingering shoulder injury. As early as April, there were stories about how he was going to manage. He skipped the All Star Game. And while he was crushing all year, he has now missed time and his performance has dipped. You can’t (and won’t) cut Devers right now, but as the Red Sox fade (now 4 games out of the last wildcard spot and needing to leapfrog three teams to get in), you have to prepare for the possibility he gets shut down and misses the end of the season.

Justin Verlander, -1.3 P/IP

This category doesn’t often feature two stars, but it does today. Verlander’s days as a star appear to be numbered, though. His xFIP and SIERA both pointed to some real risk coming into 2024. Verlander has gone from being a strikeout machine to needing to get outs on balls in play and it isn’t going well for him. With Verland set to come up well short of vesting his 2025 option, he will be a free agent after the season and you have to wonder if he just calls it quits (or if MLB teams take that choice out of his hands).