Ottoneu Cold Right Now: May 6, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

NOTE: Today’s post reflects data through Saturday, May 4th (does not include stats from Sunday, 5/5)

Roster Cuts

Matt Brash, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 34.1%

Brash has a reputation as an elite reliever that outpaces his surface-level performance, but his underlying numbers are very impressive. But this drop has nothing to do with performance. Brash has been on the shelf due to elbow inflammation and had a set back a week ago.

He seemed ready to go on rehab assignment but instead didn’t feel right after throwing and had to be shut down. That shut-down is indefinite so who knows when he might be back. Waiting on Brash made sense but at this point, I don’t blame you for bailing. The reality is Brash, at 7.67 P/IP, was barely a top-30 RP last year by points per IP (minimum 20 IP, he was 27th). I have a hard time sitting on any reliever for an extended period. Sitting on an injured reliever with an unclear timeline who may or may not be the same pitcher when he is back and who wasn’t really elite last year just isn’t something I would be willing to do.

Abner Uribe, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 25.3%

The story here is the same, but different, but still the same. Uribe, like Brash, is a super fun pitcher when he is on. Uribe, like Brash, was highly sought after by the end of last year and through the off-season. Uribe, like Brash, was outside the top-25 RP (20 IP min) in P/IP (he was 26th, just ahead of Brash). Uribe, like Brash, isn’t pitching for an MLB team at the moment.

The difference is that Uribe was healthy and struggling and was sent to Triple-A. That is arguably worse – at least is Brash came back you don’t have a month of poor performance staring you in the face as you decide what to do with him. It’s also arguably better – if he throws well, he could be back by Mid-May, and Brash is certainly not on that timeline.

The net result is the same. Once you have another use for that roster spot, I wouldn’t hesitate to make a cut.

Adbert Alzolay, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 23.4%

Let’s just cover every version of this story! While Urbe was 26th in P/IP last year and Brash was 27th, would you believe Alzolay was 28th? Cause he was!

His story is more like Uribe – he simply isn’t performing, rather than being hurt – but he hasn’t been demoted. Yet. The strikeouts are down and the walks are up, but the real story is that his pitches are getting tattooed. He’s nearly doubled his barrel rate and has already allowed as many HR this year (5) as he did last in about a 5th of the innings (13 this year vs. 64 last). Alzolay has been bad.

And you can already guess where this is going – you can cut him. If he were a top 10-15 RP, I could see waiting on him, but that’s not a fair expectation and now he is actively hurting you now – far more than Uribe or Brash. It appears to be a mechanical issue for Alzolay, so you may be tempted to let him work through it. I am more inclined to move on and buy back in later, if he finds it again. If he has been cut in your league, I would throw him on a watchlist and see if he gets right. But I don’t want him on my roster right now.

Recent Injuries

Joe Musgrove – 15-day IL, right elbow inflammation

Ah, it was just a week ago that we were carefree in April, and Lucas Kelly was telling you that he would not be benching Joe Musgrove. And sure enough, Musgove threw a gem. And yet he finds himself back in this godforsaken article once again, this time due to injury. The good news is there is nothing new to report on the performance concerns, beyond what Lucas shared last week. Musgrove is still doing good things, he has had slow starts before, and he just showed a few days ago how good he can still be. The Padres are calling the IL stint “precautionary” so maybe (hopefully) this is just a minimum stay and we will see him back on the bump in less than two weeks. Regardless, I am holding and waiting.

Steven Kwan – 10-day IL, hamstring strain

Everyone wants to talk about the corresponding move to Kwan hitting the IL, but don’t let that overshadow the fact that Kwan is hitting the IL. Kyle Manzardo is exciting, but Kwan is an established, productive MLB player who was off to a great start. He is leading the AL in hits and average and is second in OBP. His 6.89 P/G would be a career-high. We don’t know yet what the extent of the injury is. Kwan has a history of hamstring issues dating back to his college days so it appears the team and player want to be cautious here. When we get further reports and have a clearer timeline, my advice might change but for now, he is an easy hold.

Trea Turner – 10-day IL, hamstring strain

Turner is set to miss about six weeks which is really frustrating if you roster him. But there isn’t much you can do about it. Just wait out and plug him back into your lineup when you can. Given how many injuries there have been this year, if you do NOT roster Turner, I might poke around the roster he is on in your league. If that manager is dealing with a plethora of injuries, now might be a decent time to try to buy low on Turner if you can give up healthy, active players and take the 6-week hit.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Trevor Rogers – -0.6 P/IP

Rogers is moving into, “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice…” territory. I keep waiting for him to return to form and he keeps showing signs. He was excellent to start the season and now it is all falling apart. And this graph might not 100% explain the issues, but it is pretty telling:

Yeah, that isn’t great. I am moving on once more, and this time I won’t get fooled again.

Reid Detmers – 1.2 P/IP

That 1.2 P/IP over two weeks encompasses three starts, and three bad starts when you are only seven starts into the season sounds really bad. But looking closer, it is really only one bad start. Well, two, but one you can excuse. He started this stretch facing Baltimore and if you hadn’t noticed, the Orioles can hit a bit. Sitting Detmers against Baltimore wasn’t a tough call. Then he was nearly 4.0 P/IP against Minnesota, which isn’t good, but you’ll take that as a bad start – it won’t kill you. Then the Guardians teed off for three HR and slapped him with a -6 point start. The velocity had dipped and the strikeouts with it, but it came back a bit vs. Cleveland. Detmers gets Kansas City next and I will probably risk using him in some leagues where innings are at a premium.

José Abreu – -0.6 P/G

Abreu paired that performance with a demotion to Triple-A. There is probably a long and interesting bit of analysis that could be written about what Abreu needs to do at Triple-A. But we’ll keep it short and sweet – you can cut him.

Matt Mervis – -0.4 P/G

Mervis got all of 28 PA before the Cubs decided they were done with him yet again. In those 28 PA he did nothing to demand he stay in Chicago, but it was only 28 PA! The Cubs seem to have absolutely no faith in him and if that is the case, there is no reason for him to stay on your roster either. Until it looks like he is getting consistent playing time, in Chicago or elsewhere, just don’t bother.