Ottoneu Cold Right Now: June 3, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Ronald Acuña Jr., Leagues with a Cut (7 days): 40.3%

I am going to give this entire section to Acuña today. Enough ink has been spilled on Acuña that we don’t need to spend a ton of time on his injury, or recovery timeline, or anything like that. But we should talk a little Ottoneu strategy. Because Acuña was a cornerstone piece on a lot of teams at $60 or $70 or more, and now he is being cut widely and that leaves managers in most leagues with two questions:

Should I cut Acuña? The simple answer here is yes. He’s eating up way too much money for a contender – you’ll be better off finding other players to churn through and giving yourself near-unlimited cap space to pick up players and fill in roster spots as needed the rest of the way. And if you are not contending, he is no longer a keeper nor is he worth much via trade. Again, you are better off with the cap space to find possible keepers.

Should I go acquire Acuña via trade or auction? This comes down to price for me. I don’t want Acuña at $50 or more. I do want him at $30 or less. In between, it gets fuzzy, and depends on roster construction as well as what you expect from him in the future. Across my leagues, I have done the following:

• League 1: $62 Acuña was cut and, as of yet, has not been re-auctioned. There are three teams with $20 or more in cap space that could bid on him, all in the bottom half of the standings. But all of them would have to clear at least a few more dollars just to meet the $31 min bid. My team is in 6th and has no cap room. I am still back and forth between buying and selling, overall, but there is no world in which I am bidding $31 or more on Acuña with this team and this cap situation.
• League 13: He is still being held at $59 by a team that could still make the playoffs (sitting 8th right now at 8-10, with 10-8 being the cut off at the moment). That team has $17 in cap space and could be waiting to need the cash before making a cut. My team in that league has plenty of cap space ($39) to go after Acuña if he were cut, but it is an OPL team. I won’t be placing a bid unless it’s after that team is eliminated or the OPL knockouts have started.
• League 32: Again, he hasn’t been cut. He is $65 and the team holding him is in 6th place. He could be planning to just hold him either because he believes in Acuña at $67 next year or to avoid giving someone else a $34-$40 Acuña. I have very little cap space and still have hopes of contending, so I am happy to see him held. I won’t bid if he is cut anytime soon.
• League 670: I cut my $69 Acuña. He was picked up at auction for $35 and offered back to me via trade. I turned that down – this is an OPL team and I didn’t have space for him. The team that picked him up is currently in first place and was able to flip him for a $27 Pete Alonso to a team in 7th. I love that move for the first place team – great way to use cash to improve his roster. I don’t love it for the team that acquired Acuña. We saw what he did after coming back from his last knee injury, plus how he was playing this year. 2023 feels like an outlier. He’s an easy keep at $37, for sure, but I am not sure he is that exciting at that price. We’ll see.
• League 1199: $63 Acuña was cut and yet to be reauctioned. My team is in 8th, has $30 in cap space, and could probably get to $40. Here is a case where I might be willing to make a bid, probably in the $35 range, if an when he is put up for auction.
• League 1372: $57 Acuña was cut and reuactioned. I put in a $35 bid, based on having plenty of cap room, but two teams outbid me and he went for $44. I am fine losing out at that price.
• League 1443: He was cut at $72 and still sits out there as a free agent. I don’t have the cap space to bid on him without gutting my team and I am not willing to gut my team for a $36 (minimum) Acuña.

What I am finding is that I am happy to bid mid-30s where it is easy to bid mid-30s. I might trade something small for a mid-30s Acuña where I am rebuilding. But otherwise, I think I am okay letting others take the risk.

Recent Injuries

Blake Snell – Groin injury

Snell left his start early and we later learned he had a groin injury that has him destined for another IL stint. Snell had been struggling, anyway, but with the late start to his season, it was easy to believe he was going to work his way back into shape. He is a two-time Cy Young winner and even when he isn’t at his best, he is typically quite good. Snell had already commented that missing Spring Training hurt his preparation. It’s entirely possible it also negatively impacted his readiness to stay healthy for the season. It remains to be seen how long he is out, but he is a tough hold at this point. If you have him at $25 or more, I get moving on. A $30 version was cut in one of my leagues BEFORE the injury. At less than $20, though, I think you need more info on his timeline. He could still be a difference-maker down the stretch and the long-term value is high. He isn’t being widely cut (under 2% of leagues) but if those cuts start rolling in, I would be interested in buying him.

Lars Nootbaar – Oblique

A fan favorite pegged with high hopes coming into 2024, Nootbaar was having a good season that had turned great over the last three weeks or so. From May 6 to May 29 he was hitting .313/.421/.563 for a 183 wRC+ including four homers. Everything under the hood looks good for Nootbaar, so you just have to grin and bear it for the 4-6 weeks I assume he will be out. We don’t actually have a timeline yet, but that’s generally what we see. If you aren’t lucky enough to have Nootbaar on your team, now might be a good time to poke his manager and see if he can be acquired via trade.

John Means – UCL surgery

For the second time in his career, Means will be undergoing surgery to repair a torn UCL. I focused the section above on Acuña this week, but means is actually the second-most cut player at 35.9%. He is still rostered in over 35% of leagues – that should drop to zero this week (it won’t, but it should). There is no reason to roster Means.

Alek Manoah – Second opinion on elbow

Manoah looked like he might be turning a corner, then looked like maybe that was a fluke, and now he is hurt. I was adding Manoah in places not long ago, but the combination of inconsistent performance and a possibly bad elbow injury have sent me scrambling for the cut button. And I am not alone – he was the third-most cut player this week, at 25%. A second opinion is still just information gathering and so we don’t yet know what to expect. But I don’t expect the news to be great. The “positive” outcome here is probably a prolonged absence that doesn’t end his season. Even if we hear that, I don’t see any need to hold Manoah.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Tyler O’Neill, -3.7 P/G

I was intrigued by O’Neill pre-season and early on it felt like that was justified excitement. That still shows in his overall line. Yes, the strikeouts are way up (33.7%) but his career-best 2021 season came with a 31.3% K-rate, so we know he can succeed through whiffs. And his contact has been elite this year. On top of that, he is walking at a career-high rate. But this isn’t just a two-week slump. Dating back to April 28, he has at 43.5% K-rate which is just barely lower than his 46 wRC+. Suffice it to say, if you’re wRC+ and K-rate are that close together, something is wrong. He is on the IL now and expects to be back Wednesday. It’s too soon to act, but keep watching those results, because we have seen what happens when he goes bad and this could get ugly.

Jonny DeLuca, -0.7 P/G

DeLuca came out on fire when he joined Tampa in early May, but has cooled off considerably since. At this point his overall line looks pretty bad, but a .214 BABIP is almost certainly playing a role. He is walking at a decent clip, his strikeouts aren’t a major issue. The lack of high-end exit velocities is a concern but his barrel rate doesn’t look bad (though who knows if he can maintain a double-digit barrel rate without better overall EV – I suspect not). I am not going to tell you that you have to make a cut, but I am starting to shed DeLuca in some places where I am in need of immediate production. His role in Tampa isn’t guaranteed to last, the performance is bad, he isn’t hitting the ball hard, and that is enough for me to be willing to jump ship.

Triston McKenzie, -0.9 P/IP

I want to write this off as a result of McKenzie getting a start at Coors (and 5.8 points over 5 innings at Coors didn’t help) but the real killer was a three home-run, -14.9 point, 5 inning effort against the Mets in Cleveland the start before that. McKenzie had a rough start to the season, but after getting roughed up by the Yankees in his third start, he had gone six starts and 34.1 IP putting up 167.06 points, for 4.87 P/IP. He had a 4.02 FIP over that stretch, as a .232 BABIP helped control his P/IP. Walks are absolutely haunting Sticks and he is also suffering a career-high HR/9. Maybe he can get back to performing like he did in that stretch between the two New York teams, but he’s not a guy you can trust right now and how much do you want to pay for a guy you can’t trust?