Ottoneu Cold Right Now: June 25, 2025

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Tyler Fitzgerald, Add% Change (7 days): -20.6%

Fitzgerald was super-fun last year, and whatever the opposite of that is this year. In 2024, he had 15 homers, 17 stolen bases, and a .357 wOBA. He was valuable in basically every fantasy format. But his stock wasn’t all that high during draft season. He was still attractive in 5×5 leagues, where a MI with that power-speed combo can get away without being a great hitter and still have value, but most Ottoneu managers were understandably wary of his potential P/G or 4×4 production. His .380 BABIP and .292 xwOBA, paired with a high strikeout rate, were red flags that were hard to miss.

This year, however, has been worse than expected. His batted ball quality, per Statcast, got much worse, so that even as he cut his K-rate, the power entirely dried up. His EV, hard-hit rate, and barrel-rate are all down. Through 200 PA, he had just 2 HR. Yes, he was still running, stealing 9 bases, but his 600 PA pace went from a 25/30 season to a 5/25 season. Even in 5×5, that wasn’t going to play.

It’s not going to play in San Francisco, either. Fitzgerald was sent down to Triple-A this week, spurring a slew of managers to make cuts. Fitzgerald is still rostered in nearly 60% of leagues, but I suspect that number will decrease as managers win auctions and jettison Fitzgerald from their rosters.

Jorge Soler, Add% Change (7 days): -15.3%

Soler is on the IL with a back issue, so he could go in the category below, but he’s not being cut because he was injured – the injury is just giving managers an excuse to take action on a disappointing season.

I was high on Soler before the year. Angel Stadium is the best power park he’s ever played in and Soler has demonstrated the ability to hit for power even in pretty adverse situations. After consecutive seasons of .361 and .340 wOBA, I thought we’d see something at or above that .340 mark again, especially with this new home helping him out.

Instead, Soler has a .281 wOBA (with a .286 xwOBA to nearly match). Soler has seen drops in his hard-hit (from 43.7% to 40.4%) and barrel rates (from 12.3% to 9.9%). This is perhaps a result of a concerning trend in his bat speed, which has dropped each of the last two years (from 75.8 to 75.4 and now to 73.9). He still has above average bat speed – in fact, quite good bat speed – but it isn’t as good. His fast-swing rate has followed the same trend going from 61.5% in 2023 to 56.6% in 2024, to 40.1% this year. Again, 40.1% is still good, but not what we would expect.

Soler is also striking out more and walking less than he has since 2017 (leaving aside the shortened 2020 season). And that seems to stem from pitchers just challenging him more. His zone% is 41.2% and this is the first time it has been over 40% since (you guessed it) 2017.

At age 33, it feels like Soler might be showing signs of time catching up to him. The decreasing bat speed and the fact that pitchers clearly feel more comfortable going after him are both, potentially, pieces of evidence that Soler is in decline. That isn’t to say he is toast – he still hits the ball hard! But they aren’t great signs.

I think he is a fine cut for now, but if/when he is back in the lineup, look to see if maybe some rest and recovery boosts his bat speed or fast swing rate.

Injuries

A.J. Puk, Add% Change (7 days): -26.4%

Puk’s not being dropped more than this only because a) he was already on the 60-day IL so he isn’t using a roster spot and b) so many people had already dropped him. His injury saga has dragged on most of the  year and has ended with the announcement that he’ll be having elbow surgery that will end his 2025 and likely keep him out most of 2026. There isn’t much reason to stash a reliever that long. Even one with Puk’s upside.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand,  -1.4 P/G

I covered CES back in April, when he was hurt and being cut, and noted that I was still interested in holding him or picking him up. And then he came back and hit HR in three straight and I was super ready for him to show up in a Hot Right Now and instead…yeah, it went back to ugly real fast. I am not giving up on this bat, but it is getting hard to feel optimistic. Thought he was 2-4 with a double Tuesday night…

Kerry Carpenter, -1.2 P/G

Speaking of guys bouncing back Tuesday night, Carpenter hit his 4th HR of the month Tuesday, but it was his first since he hit three in a game on June 2. Carpenter still has a wRC+ over 100 and is still hitting the ball hard, but he isn’t walking at all (including none in that three week stretch between homers) which is dramatically lowering his floor. With a 7% walk rate, he was finding ways to provide value even when the ball was neither carrying nor dropping. Now, when the bat goes cold, there’s nothing left to fall back on. Like CES, I have been high on Carpenter and I remain high on him. but he is becoming a player who I would trade away to get a higher priced, safer player if I am buying.