Ottoneu Cold Right Now: July 3, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Luis Urías, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.51%

Urías went from underrated to overrated to disappointed to productive player to injured and has now gone back to the minors. After missing more than a month with an injury suffered on Opening Day, Urías simply has not produced for the Brewers, posting a .145/.299/236 slash line and just 2.05 P/G for his Ottoneu managers.

Some of the issue is certainly poor luck – his .179 BABIP and 12.5% line drive rate are both unsustainably low. But Urías just was not making strong contact in his limited time this year. Never a guy with elite contact quality, his brief (so far) 2023 has been a big step back and re-raised concerns from his prospect days that he simply won’t hit the ball hard enough to be an impact player. He showed in 2021 and 2022 that he can hit just hard enough to be a successful MLB hitter, but this year he just isn’t doing it.

You can see in that chart, his HH rate was stuck well below league average until 2021, and has been trending down so far this year. If you want to take something positive from this, his brutal June looks an awful lot like other slow patches for him in the middle of 2021, and a couple of times in 2022. Given still-strong plate discipline numbers, there is good reason to think Urías can play his way out of this.

I don’t mind cutting him now, especially if you are spending $10+ on him (median salary is $6), but watch his minor league performance. A hot week could be more than enough to get him back into the Brewers lineup and producing like he did in 2022.

Kris Bubic, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 16.35%

Just another round of Bubic being auctioned and cut to decrease his cap penalty. And still no other reason to be nominating or bidding on him.

Matthew Boyd, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 15.06%

Boyd has looked so good in flashes, but the performance hasn’t been consistent and now he is going to miss the rest of this year and maybe all of next after having Tommy John Surgery. No reason to stash him. He is still rostered in almost 16% of leagues and that should fade to 0 as the year goes on.

Josh Rojas, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 14.74%

Rojas was an exciting player a couple of years ago, with a decent amount of hype in fantasy circles, and he delivered two decent-ish seasons. But this year has been ugly.

The greater than 10% walk rate that helped give him a high floor has dropped t0 8.6% this year. Always a guy who hit a relatively high number of line drives, Rojas kept that rate up at 25% this year, but his exit velocity on line drives fell from 92.1 in 2021 and 93.4 last year to 90.7 this year. That lower quality of contact has brought down his BABIP and his HR/FB% (to zero, which isn’t ideal) and left him without much value.

There are only 12 qualified hitters with a LD% higher than 25% and none has an xwOBA lower than Ezequiel Tovar’s .292. Rojas had an xwOBA of .268. Hitting a lot of line drives is a good thing, but you still have to hit the ball hard for that to matter.

You’ll notice a lot of past tense in those paragraphs – that’s because Rojas has been sent down to Triple-A. And he really isn’t hitting any better there. There is no good reason not to move on from Rojas if you haven’t already.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Bo Naylor, 2.1 P/G:

When Naylor got the call, I was quick to get him into my lineups and he has not really delivered. He has only had 40 PA since coming up and his P/G is hurt by PH appearances, but not enough to explain away 2.1 P/G. The strikeout rate is high and Naylor is clearly struggling to adjust.

But I want to urge patience on Naylor. His first couple of weeks of Triple-A in 2022 were not good, before he adjusted and took off. His first taste of Double-A in 2021 was not good, before he adjusted a took off.

Naylor has shown a good approach throughout his pro career, drawing a lot of walks and flashing big power. His first MLB HR was no cheapie – a 417-foot shot he hit out the other way in Kauffman Stadium, a notoriously bad power park. There are going to be growing pains, but if you can let him work through them, the prize could be big.

Jack Suwinski, 3.33 P/G:

This is all part of the Jack Suwinski show, as his high K-rate leaves him susceptible to cold streaks. The concern for managers, of course, is what if the league has just figured him out and the cold streak won’t be followed by another hot streak?

Here are some numbers for you:

• Suwinski’s average EV on the season: 91.6. Over the last two weeks: 93.4.
• Suwinski’s hard hit rate on the season: 48.6%. Over the last two weeks: 56.5%.
• Suwinski’s strikeout rate on the season: 31.7%. Over the last two weeks: 30.2%.
• Suwinski’s walk rate on the season: 15.5%. Over the last two weeks: 16.3%.

So what is driving this slump? His BABIP (.190) and HR/FB rate (13.3%) are both just extremely low, especially given the continued hard contact.

If you, like me, are getting frustrated, take a deep breath and wait for him to start mashing the ball again. It’s coming. And if you don’t enjoy the roller coaster, the next time he hits four homers over a four-game stretch (a feat he has accomplished twice so far this year), get him on the block and sell. I’m holding, enjoying the peaks, and accepting that the big picture is still very good, even if the valleys prevent it from being great.

Johan Oviedo, 2.89 P/IP:

This guy is maddening. He looked quite good to start the season before running into a tough start against the Dodgers. And he actually fared kind-of-okay, giving up 5 R (4 earned) over 5.1 IP against LA. And you had to feel good starting him against the Nats next time out and he got LIT UP. The he had another rough go against the Jays, before he settled back in.

After that run, from May 12 until June 25, he made 9 starts and posted 4.70 P/IP. Things looked good and if you are like me, you weren’t too worried about Milwaukee on July 1. But he threw another stinker, giving up 8 ER on 9 H and 3 BB over 5 IP, good for -5.70 points. Brutal.

The nice thing is things are easy on you for the moment. He gets the Dodgers next and there is no way I am risking that. Then he hits the All-Star break. But when he gets back, he should get either the Giants or Guardians at home in Pittsburgh and both of those are tempting.

For now, I am in wait-and-see mode with Oviedo. There are some really intriguing signs, but the season numbers are just a bit above replacement level. If you need pitching, he is an acceptable arm, but you have to play matchups and be okay with the risk that comes from a guy who has given up big games to the Nats (23rd in wRC+) and the Brewers (28th).