Ottoneu Cold Right Now: July 22, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Justin Slaten, Add% Change (7 days): -10.7%

When April ended, Slaten had a pristine 0.52 ERA. Since then, he has a 5.33 ERA.

When April ended, I thought Slaten was a pretty interesting reliever for Ottoneu. I now think he might be more interesting.

How do you end up with someone calling you “more interesting” when your ERA balloons almost 10x? Check out these numbers:

I could try to argue that he has been meaningfully better and that is somewhat true. The increased K more than make up for the increased BB. The xFIP is better. But it would be more accurate, I think, to say that he has been equally good. And he has been good! Look at those underlying numbers! Yes, the ERA has exploded, but his hard-hit rate is actually down and his barrel rate is barely up (and still very low at 4.1%. He is also getting more high-leverage opportunities, including holds in two of his last three, five of his last seven, and six of his last nine appearances.

So why is he getting cut? The ERA is part of it, but the bigger issue is that he got injured. He is on the IL with elbow inflammation and that isn’t a great thing for a reliever. But I would watch the news. If it really was just inflammation and not an issue that requires surgery or anyhting, he’ll be back and an interesting pick up. That doesn’t mean you have to keep him now – I hate sitting on injured RP – but keep him on that watchlist.

Abner Uribe, Add% Change (7 days): -9.1%

This one is a little easier – Uribe is done for the year after having knee surgery, and there is no reason to hold him.

Miguel Andujar, Add% Change (7 days): -8.8%

Coming into action Sunday, Andujar had a 111 wRC+ since July 4, which makes it kind of fascinating that he is on this list. He has been hitting! And he has been hitting near the top of the order! He is OF-eligible! Oh, and Sunday he went 3-5 for a home run!

Look, it is 2024 and you are familiar with who Miguel Andujar is. I am not going to try to convince you that he is on the verge of a breakout. He lacks power and doesn’t walk and limits strikeouts, so he goes as his BABIP goes. But OF is painful right now and there are almost certainly worse options being rostered in your league right now. If you can waiver claim a $1 Andujar and have him available as a bench bat until things turn sour, I would do it.

Injuries

Reed Garrett, Add% Change (7 days): -7.8%

He was in this space last week, but he still has the 4th largest negative Add% change, so go back and read last week’s article for an update on him, if you missed it.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Justin Turner, -2.2 P/G

Turner has a career 15.4% K-rate and has sat between 10.3% and 18% every season of his career, so the fact that he has crept up over 30% since July 7 is a little concerning. It is only nine games, but he has very rarely gone even that long with a K-rate this high. He has 12 strikeouts in his last nine games; if he strikes out once in his next game, it would tie the worst ten-game stretch of his career, in terms of strikeouts. At his age, any particularly cold streak could be the beginning of the end. I am not bailing on him over a nine game stretch with an All-Star Break in the middle, but I am watching.

Ben Lively 라이블리, 1.0 P/IP (prior to a 21.87 point, 5.1 IP start Sunday)

Lively has been a fun story this year and has done some great work for the Guardians, who have desperately needed him to help keep their rotation duct-taped together. But don’t expect him to deliver much in the way of Ottoneu value the rest of the way.