Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Aug 26, 2024

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August 26, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Matt Waldron, Add% Change (7 days): -25.4%

The man who threw the knuckleball 38.2% (Statcast) in 2024 now finds himself in AAA after being conquered by major league hitters. Waldron was written about in an “Ottoneu: Hot Right Now” piece just weeks ago. Then all hell broke loose against the Marlins on August 10th (5 ER), then again in Colorado on August 16th (7 ER), then again versus the Twins on August 21st (10 ER), swelling his month of August ERA to 10.35. It’s a mystery to me what went so wrong for Waldren. In his last few starts his K% dipped, but his BB% continued to trend down. It seems most likely that the scouting report improved on Waldren as the season went on. See how his batting average against increased through the months:

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June: .183  –>  July: .248  –>  August: .326

Overall his batting average against swelled, and so it did when isolating the knuckleball in his four most recent starts:

Aug 4th: .000  –>  Aug 10th: .250  –>  Aug 16th: .400  –>  Aug 21st: .800

He did start throwing his sinker and sweeper more often in those last few starts, dropping the knuckleball’s usage, but according to Stuff+, neither of those is above, or even equal to, average pitches. Someone get R.A. Dickey on the phone. Waldron needs to plan out a quest to find his knuckleball again.

Héctor Neris, Add% Change (7 Days): -17.6%

It was rumored that the Cubs would release Neris and it became a reality on August 20th. By August 24th, he was a Houston Astro. RosterResource slots him in as a setup man behind Bryan Abreu, the man next in line to closer Josh Hader. Neris had 17 saves, three holds, and eight wins on the season for the Cubs. In his first appearance with the Astros, he was awarded a win. While he certainly loses fantasy value in his ability to get saves, he could be a sneaky holds/vultured-wins pickup in leagues where he has been dropped. However, Ryan Pressly is on the mend and likely to return from a back injury in the next few weeks, which may shake up the bullpen hierarchy even further.

Andy Pages, Add% Change (7 Days): -14.1%

In the 17 plate appearances Pages has accumulated in AAA since being demoted on August 19th, he has slashed .250/.294/.625 with two home runs. That’s not far off his MLB slash line of .246/.305/.388 if you put your finger over the slugging percentage portion. He showed flashes of power while up in the big leagues:

Pages Roling ISO/SLG

Pair those periods of peaks with an above-average (7.9%) statcast barrel rate of 10.6% and an above-average statcast hard-hit rate (38.7%) of 39.8% and you start to wonder what Pages could become with more time in the majors. He needs to develop his eye skills while in the minors. This season in the big leagues, Pages swung at pitches outside of the zone more than the average hitter and swung at pitches inside the zone less than the average hitter. He could also benefit from recognizing and hitting the fastball better. His K% on four-seamers in the big leagues sits at 30.6%. Lastly, Pages did not fare well against right-handed pitching, which a hitter typically needs to be good at. He hit only .217 against righties while beating up lefties for a .337 average. They say you can make a beautiful living only hitting lefties, but that’s not super helpful in fantasy baseball.

Injuries

Jeimer Candelario, Add% Change (7 days): -16.9%

A broken toe may take longer than 10 days to heal, but Candelario is listed on the 10-day IL. There are a lot of players on the Reds bench including Ty France, Will Benson, and Amed Rosario who could easily slot into the DH spot, and a few who could slot into the 1B spot. Candelario was only slashing .213/.250/.393 in August after slashing an even less impressive .181/.243/.319 in July so it doesn’t seem like a rush back to the lineup will be helping your fantasy team.

Alex Cobb, Add% Change (7 days): -11.0%

Cobb returned from the IL and then went back on the IL like a turtle emerging from his shell only to retreat again. He threw 10.1 innings in 2024 before breaking a nail. Hopefully, he’s able to recover quickly but it seems risky auto-starting him in any format until we get a few more looks at his stuff in 2024.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Isaac Paredes, 0.0 P/G

Paredes only has four hits in his last 45 plate appearances and while his K% is up and his BB% is down, both only slightly, he is being BABIP’d at .125. That’s not the only cause as his batting average on the year is .227. Underlying stats say he should be doing better but not by a ton.

Ben Rice, -1.4 P/G

Rice has cooled after having a huge start to his career. With a larger sample available, we see he’s now striking out 26.7% of the time and only slashing .178/.273/.363. He has dropped in the batting order and with Anthony Rizzo rehabbing in AA, may find himself sent back down to the minors.

Max Meyer, -1.4 P/IP

Walks and home runs have hurt Meyer in his last two starts, mostly due to a poor-performing four-seam fastball. Three of the four homers he gave up in his last two starts came off the four-seamer. It grades well below average in the Stuff+ department and he throws it 40% of the time.

George Kirby, 0.1 P/IP

With three starts in the last 14 days, Kirby continues to walk batters at a low clip but in his August 13th start, he gave up a season-high 12 hits, a start that only lasted 3.2 innings. His velocity appears steady, though it dropped off somewhat in his most recent start. Last season he threw 190.2 IP and he’s now on pace for 192.0 in 2024. Keep an eye on him as he hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in two of his last three starts and hasn’t made it beyond the sixth inning in any of the three.





 

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