Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Aug 14, 2024

Sorry for the late start this week – August is vacation season! Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Angel Martínez, Add% Change (7 days): -24.8%

Martinez really cooled off after a hot start and found himself outside the Guardians plans, at least for now. At just 22-years-old, he has dominated Triple-A and held his own in the bigs. He can play all over the diamond. Like so many other Guardians prospects, he walks, avoids strikeouts, puts the ball in play, but has not shown much in the way of power output. His 14 HR across two levels last year are a career-best. He may make a run at that again this year, but it isn’t a given. And his Statcast data doesn’t suggest there is a ton more power in his bat, at least for now.

That’s twice in one paragraph that I said “at least for now.” Martinez is still an intriguing prospect for Cleveland and we will likely see him in MLB again soon – though maybe not this season, depending how things go. The problem is, from an Ottoneu perspective, he doesn’t really flash the right skills to be a fantasy asset. There is a chance he develops into a 15-20 HR bat with 10-15 SB and good OBP, but that is far from a given and there are more interesting prospects to sit on.

Camilo Doval, Add% Change (7 days): -21.3%

Doval has been a personal favorite and boy does that look silly now. He’s had a dreadful 2024. The K/9 is still there but he’s a great case study in why K% is a better metric. Doval is striking out 27.6% of hitters this year, vs. 30.2% for his career coming into the season, but his K/9 is up slightly (11.45 vs. 11.31). How does that happen? Inflate your K/9 with this one neat trick: walk more hitters.

Doval is now walking 14.3% of hitters (vs. 9.6% coming into the year). That extra 4.7% of hitters walking are not making outs, which means innings are lasting longer, which means he faces more hitters per inning, which means he can strike out a lower percentage of hitters while keeping up his K/9. Basically, K/9 can be calculated as K% (which is K/batter face) * TBF/IP. Walks drive up TBF/IP, which means they also drive up K/9, assuming a steady K%.

Doval is getting a similar rate of chases, more called strikes, and more swinging strikes – but he is also finding the zone a lot less, hence the big jump in walks. He is also giving up more hard contact and more HR, possibly because he is not commanding his pitches, as well. Missing out of the zone leads to more walks. Missing spots in the zone can lead to more hard contact. And now he finds himself in Triple-A, trying to figure out what went wrong. Doval was 7.55 P/IP in 2022 and 8.84 P/IP in 2023 before struggling this year. And he is still at 6.73 this year, which isn’t terrible!

I get why people are dropping him but I would be tempted to hold unless I really needed the roster spot (or the cash – his $12 median salary is pretty high and I am far less likely to keep at $10+ than at lower prices). Where he is being cut, I would not pick him up immediately, but see what he does in Triple-A and watch for a buying opportunity if he seems to be finding himself.

Jhonkensy Noel, Add% Change (7 days): -14.7%

Noel is on a downward trajectory, having his just one HR Tuesday after hitting two on Monday. At this rate, he will be hitting negative HR in no time.

Ok, to be fair, Noel was actually trending down prior to Monday. Before that game he had a 68 wRC+ since July 24, including just one HR. But Noel has been showing some real promise. Besides the 158 wRC+ overall in his rookie campaign, Noel has made great progress in an area that looked problematic. Noel has posted some high K% in some of his minors stops, including taking multiple attempts at Triple-A before he could get his strikeouts under control.

Then, through his first 40 PA, he had a 40% K-rate, and while the 148 wRC+ over that stretch looked good, it wasn’t hard to wonder when the bottom would fall out with that much swing-and-miss. But look at this beautiful graph:

I mean, how can you not love that. Sure, more walks would be great, but a rookie barely a month past his 23rd birthday showing that kind of progress? *chef’s kiss*

He still has a high K% for the year, but his last 50 PA, his K% is 20%. It is 12.5% over his last 32 PA. Are those small samples? Yes, of course. But the trend is so good looking and he is continuing to tap into his power (his wRC+ has gone up over the 50 most recent PA). Yes, there was a cold stretch. Yes, he was playing less. No, you should not cut him. Yes, you should pick him up where you can.

Injuries

Brusdar Graterol, Add% Change (7 days): -26.3%

Graterol has established himself as an effective reliever for the Dodgers, but after missing all the first-half of the season, he came back – briefly – in early August and found himself back on the IL. There were concerns that he might be done for the year, and while that does not appear to be the case, his hamstring injury will keep him out until September, at least. I see no reason to hold him at this point. He is on the 15-day IL, not the 60, so he uses up a roster spot. Plus you can’t be confident he’ll be effective when he finally does get back.

Colin Holderman, Add% Change (7 days): -23.5%

Holderman started the year incredibly strong. And “started” isn’t really doing him justice. He was having a great season, right up until July 28, when everything fell apart. After a few poor outings, the Pirates placed him on the IL with a wrist sprain. Could that be the cause of his struggles? Sure. But, as I usually note, I can’t see holding an injured RP unless they are a truly elite RP, and he is not at that level. Add in the risk that the struggles are unrelated to the injury and you have a guy you can drop and look to add back later.

Wenceel Pérez, Add% Change (7 days): -21.3%

Obliques are the worst. And at this point in the season, with the Tigers not contending anyway, it likely ends Perez’s season. But on top of that, Pérez really hasn’t been very good. After a terrific April, his wRC+ has gone down every month and not down like “from great to above average.” The first month of the year he posted a 176 wRC+; May, June and July were 84, 82, and 74. August was 73 before being cut short. I don’t really see the interest here. He reminds me a bit of Angel Martinez, who we discussed earlier, but the plate discipline isn’t as good, the prospect pedigree isn’t as good, and he is two-years older.

Blake Treinen, Add% Change (7 days): -18.5%

Treinen has been excellent this year, but is on the IL and is another guy not in the “you have to hold this reliever through injury” category. He’s on watchlists, though, for when we get word of a potential return.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Luis Robert Jr., -1.4 P/G

Robert is having a down year, is now stuck playing for a bad team that is somehow trending worse and worse, that has traded away some of their best players. You probably aren’t going to cut him, but if you did, I don’t think I would blame you. And if you are looking to make a stretch-run acquisition to boost your OF, I would look elsewhere.

Hayden Birdsong, -4.9 P/IP

He looked really interesting right until the Giants traded away Alex Cobb in part to keep room for him, the month turned to August, and he got shelled by the Nationals and Tigers, who are not the shelliest of teams. I still like the potential, but I am not sure I want him in my lineup for his next start.