Ottoneu Cold Right Now: April 3, 2025

Last year, Cold Right Now, included a section on injuries, one on players being cut and a third on players performing poorly. This year, I am not going to cover the “injuries” separate from the players being cut. If a player is injured and not being cut, he probably doesn’t need to be covered here. If he does, I can always make an exception.

That means our two sections will be:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

Roster Cuts

Jason Foley – Leagues with a cut (7 days) – 33.4%

It isn’t often that a guy enters camp as the presumptive closer (or at least one of the presumptive closers) and ends up missing the Opening Day roster entirely, but that is what happened with Foley. Last year, Foley had 28 saves and 8 holds, with just 4 blown saves. This coming off a season with 7 saves, 28 holds, and just 2 blown saves.

Now, that isn’t to say he has been a lights-out relief ace. Over the two seasons he had a solid 2.86 ERA, but just a 3.24 FIP, 3.78 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they aren’t “elite closer” good, either. And he doesn’t get to his saves the way most closers do, striking out just 19.2% of hitters over that two year stretch. Foley had the 22nd most saves in MLB from 2023-24. No one else in the top 30 had a K-rate under 20%. Only Foley and Trevor May had a K-rate under 20% and more than 7 saves over those two seasons. Foley was living dangerously and getting away with it. So losing his job wasn’t super surprising. Losing his roster spot though?

The results were good and very few teams have a deep enough bullpen to toss aside a guy with those kinds of results. Foley seemed to lose his job with a 6.14 spring ERA, but oddly that came with a big jump in strikeouts (30.3%) and zero walks. He allowed one HR. It’s hard to look at that and think Foley was performing worse, despite the ERA. And in his first Triple-A outing, he faced three hitters and set them all down, including one strikeout.

The problem is that the low-K, high-leverage version of Foley was posting 7.47 P/IP. That is good, but not elite. In 2024, 30 relievers went 40+ innings with a higher P/IP than Foley.

For me, a reliever who sits just outside the top 30, with some risk to fall further given the low K and the fact that he will have to work his way back to high leverage innings, isn’t worth holding while he toils in the minors. He should be on watchlists, because he has been successful before and relievers are always worth churning through. But for now, he is a safe cut.

Jurickson Profar – Leagues with a cut (7 days) – 28.5%

I had Profar in one league and I already cut him. His 2024 was great but I was already slightly skeptical of his ability to repeat that performance. Now he is out half the season, we have even more reason to doubt his 2024, and you have to wonder how Atlanta uses him when he is back, knowing that he won’t be in their post-season roster. I could see picking him up in June or July, when a return is imminent, but I am not wasting the cap now.

DJ Herz – Leagues with a cut (7 days) – 24.2%

Herz was already a flyer type, and now he is on the 60-day IL getting a second opinion on his elbow. If you don’t need the cap space, sure hold onto him. He doesn’t use up a roster spot, so why not? But the moment you need the cap space, he can be let loose.

David Bednar – Leagues with a cut (7 days) – 20.3%

I was pretty bought in on a David Bednar bounceback. I had been a huge fan before the implosion in 2024 and I kind of assumed it must have been injury related, or maybe a mechanical issue that could be addressed.

Now? Yikes. He had a full season of struggling and trying to right the ship. He had a full off-season to get healthy, rest up, and work through these issues. He had a normal spring training to lock into shape. And he hasn’t been better and is now in Triple-A.

It looks like last year he saw a loss of horizontal break on his splitter, which coincided with him going to his splitter more often. This year (in a very limited sample) that break is even less and he is getting less break on his curve, as well.

He also seems to have a drifting release point over the years, which might be related.

This continues to make me think this is a mechanical issue that he can address. The problem is continuing to roster him while he works through this is using up a spot on a relatively low impact “prospect” stash. However, unlike Foley, Bednar has been truly elite in the past, with seasons of 8.17 and 9.01 P/IP.

I wouldn’t bother holding him, but he would be on my watchlist and I will be actively tracking his Triple-A performance. If he gets right, I want to buy back in.

Cold Performers

For this week, we will look at players off to a rough start who are rostered in at least 70% of leagues.

Dylan Crews – 100% rostered, -2.5 P/G

Crews has been awful. Crews is also a super intriguing prospect. And it has been less than a week. But a K-rate over 50% isn’t a great look. Crews is by no means a cut but, at least for now, he really can’t be in your lineups.

That said, the real question on Crews is if he is a buy or a sell. I think the answer at the moment is that he is not a buy low, mostly because I don’t think his managers will sell low. I would consider shopping him if I had him on a roster but my ask would be treating him as what he is: an elite prospect with a clear path to full time PA right now.

I actually don’t have to answer the “should I be selling Crews” question because I wasn’t willing to pay the price for him this off-season. I don’t think some growing pains are a huge surprise and if I did have him, I would rather stay the course than sell low.

Tanner Houck – 98.8% rostered, -1.8 P/IP

Houck’s calling card last year was his control. I prioritized him in a league outside Ottoneu that uses K/BB ratio as a category because it felt like one area he would be useful. But his first start was ugly, with just 2 K and 3 BB in 5.2 IP.

For now, I would hold on Houck, but his limited strikeouts make for a low ceiling and if he doesn’t clean up the walks quickly, I will have no problem walking away, either in a sell-low trade or, if it comes to it, by cutting him loose.