Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Apr 24, 2025

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Brandon Marsh, Add% Change (7 days): -24.5%

Marsh has been a reliable producer the last couple of seasons, putting up 5.10 and 4.82 P/G as a starter. But 2025 has been off to an awful start, putting up just 8 points over 17 starts before hitting the IL with a hamstring injury. But Marsh is supposed to start a rehab assignment today and that means he should be back soon. But given his production this year, do you really want to hold him – or pick him up – even if he is back soon?

As bad as Marsh’s results have been, there is a lot of underlying data to like. Yes, the 31.4% K-rate is ugly, but that’s always been part of the package for Marsh. That 31.4% mark exactly matches his ’23 and ’24 combined. And his walk rate is up to 13.7% vs. 11.5% the last two years. His hard-hit rate (46.4%) and EV (90.3) are down, but not by huge amounts and both are still quite good. His 7.1% barrel rate seems to represent a bigger drop, but the gap is less than one barrel – one more ball hit slightly harder or slightly lower or slightly higher and his barrel rate would be up slightly.

Looking at bat tracking, his average bat speed is basically steady (71.7 mph vs. 71.8 and 71.9 the last two years) while his fast swing rate is up (15.3% vs. 14.9% and 14.5%).

The issues seem to be in his line drive rate, which is an unsustainably-low 7.4% helping contribute to a .115 BABIP. And this from a guy typically carries a LD-rate over 20% and has a .367 career BABIP in 1,720 PA. His BABIP is not only destined to go up, there’s good reason to think it will triple.

Marsh has a median salary of $3. Where he has been cut, you can likely start an auction with a low minimum bid. I would hold Marsh – or pick him up – at those low prices. He’s not showing some new level of production, but if you can get something between his 2023 and 2024 numbers, pushing 5 P/G as a starter, that has value.

Jordan Romano, Add% Change (7 days): -19.9%

We’re going to keep this short and sweet: Romano has been getting absolutely lit up. There is no reason to keep rostering him or to pick him up, until he shows he can get outs consistently. I still think he will eventually find it again, but right now, the risk is too high and the reward too low.

Jake McCarthy, Add% Change (7 days): -15.0%

McCarthy got sent down to Triple-A after losing his job to Alek Thomas. In 5×5 leagues, and maybe even 4×4 leagues, McCarthy was pretty interesting. He gets on base, he scores runs, and that has value. But in FanGraphs Points league, you  were looking for a breakout to really get excited and that has clearly not happened.

McCarthy is still the same low-power, weak-contact, ball-in-play machine he has always been, and so he is still as reliant as ever on BABIP and the BABIP gods have frowned on him this year. His .083 BABIP makes Marsh’s .115 look good.

Part of my thinks the Diamondbacks were a little rash to send him down so quickly, though they had other options performing better, so it is hard to blame them. But for our game, he just isn’t that exciting, even if the BABIP comes back. He’s never put up more than 4.54 P/G and that was back in 2022. If that is his ceiling – and it might be – then he isn’t worth holding on your roster. If and when he is back and hitting near the top of the lineup, he could be an acceptable OF depth piece, but that’s about it, and that might be asking too much.

 

Injuries

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Add% Change (7 days): -20.5%

CES hit the IL with low back inflammation and it sounds like it should be short-lived, but his managers are not up for the minimum-10-day wait, it seems. And it is hard to blame them. Since his breakout 2023, Encarnacion-Strand has played just 34 games and put up just 79.6 points, good (“good”) for 2.34 P/G.

And yet – I think I am intrigued. Encarnacion-Strand has brought down his K-rate over his first 60 PA this year, all the way to 21.7%, nearly 7 percentage points lower than his previous two seasons. He is chasing too much, which has cratered his walk rate, but it hasn’t hurt his strikeout rate because he is making contact at a higher rate than ever before. On top of that, his bat speed and fast swing rate are both back up to where they were in that great 2023 debut. Increased bat speed can often come with increased swing and miss and the fact that CES is swinging harder while making more contact and striking out less is a great sign.

The one truly concerning sign – that massive O-swing rate – could easily be a young player pressing to re-establish himself. Maybe a ten-day IL stint will both help his ailing back and give him some time to reset his approach. I know Spring Training isn’t a great thing to rest your hat on, but this March, he was showing the improved K-rate while still hitting the snot out of the ball. The improved swing speed may be evidence that he’s about to combine those things in the regular season, as well.

He’s not a free agent in any of my leagues, yet, but I am holding him at $1 in one league and will be watching to see if he gets dropped in any others.

Beau Brieske, Add% Change (7 days): 19.9%

Brieske is a bit like Romano except he is also injured, sitting on the 15-day IL with right ankle inflammation. If you want to be optimistic, it isn’t an arm injury and that seems like a good thing. But the performance has been weak and there are other options in that bullpen to handle any high leverage innings. I would move on.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Joc Pederson, -2.9 P/G

Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. I was interested in Pederson this year as a low-cost option, but never had room for him as a util-only bat on any of my rosters, so I never picked him up. And boy has it been ugly. His bat speed and plate discipline numbers look fine, but his EV, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate are all down and concerning. Because the bat speed still looks good, I want to believe the quality of contact will rebound, but it is hard to bank on that for a guy who was always a challenge to roster, due to eligibility issues, and who just turned 33 years old. I am happy to move on, but maybe put him on your watchlist, just in case.

Michael Massey, -0.7 P/G

Massey, on the other hand, I had on multiple rosters, but that number is dwindling as we speak. Massey lacks on-base skills and so he needs to hit for power to have any value and he is not doing that. Whether you look at the ISO (.038) or Statcast data (everything is down), there just isn’t much to get excited about. If Massey were an established star, I wouldn’t bail on him after just three weeks. But he was always a fringe-y guy to roster and you’re better off riding the hot hand.

Nick Lodolo, 1.2 P/IP

Lodolo has run into some homeritis, giving up three between his last two starts, and that has really sunk his value. Over 10.1 IP, his 10K, 3BB, and 12H really don’t look that bad until you see that three of the 12 hits were homers. This will be an issue for him at home. For his career, his ERA is 1.38 runs higher at home than on the road. His K are a little lower and BB a little higher at home, but it is the big increase in HR/FB rate at Great American Ballpark that really sinks him. I think you have to be selective about starting him at home. He’s a must-start for me on the road, but at home, I am playing matchups and maybe even watching the weather.