Ottoneu: Chad’s Keep or Cut Decisions at OF

We hit a bit of a lull over the holidays, but we are back in full swing, continuing our series of tough keep/cut decisions as we get closer to the Ottoneu keeper deadline (1/31). Lucas covered his decisions back in December, now here are mine.

Juan Soto, OF
Salary: $60, $68
Average Salary: $60.69
2023 P/G: 7.06
Proj 2024 P/G: 7.56

Let’s go big right off the bat. Juan Soto is one of the elite players in all of MLB and after a down (by his standards) 2022, he was back in a big way in 2023. Now he is leaving a pretty bad park to go to a pretty good park, so he should only get better, right?

Well, the park change isn’t quite as great as it might seem at first glance. While that short porch gives Yankee Stadium a reputation as a power haven for lefty bats, it also limits the opportunities for balls that don’t clear the fence to find grass. Yankee Stadium’s HR park factor for LH hitters is 123, second in baseball (and a massive improvement from Petco’s 5th-worst 84), the overall park factor for LH hitters in just 96, barely better than Petco (95).

On top of that, Soto isn’t the ideal player to take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s strengths. He isn’t a big fly ball hitter. Over the last three years, of 226 qualified hitters, his FB% (32.7%) is 180th. He doesn’t pull the ball a ton (36.1%, 181st of that same group). He hit 35 HR in 2023 and, per Statcast, had he played every game in Yankee Stadium, he would have hit 27. Then again, the ideal Yankee Stadium LH bat – 2nd in that group in FB% and 2nd in pull rate) – is Joey Gallo, so maybe that isn’t the best measure.

That said, Soto still brings elite plate discipline and incredible contact quality. He doesn’t need the perfect park to be one of the best hitters in the game.

Keep or cut?
My two Soto’s are actually in different formats – one if 4×4 ($60) and the other is SABR Pts ($68) and I plan to keep them both. Soto is somewhat unique in that format doesn’t matter much for him, except for 5×5. Most elite players have less value in 4×4, because roto leagues have lower top-end values, but Soto is a better 4×4 player, thanks to that OBP, than he is a points player, which keep his values pretty even. He shows up in the Surplus Calculator around $55-$57 in all three of FanGraphs Points, SABR Points and 4×4. In 5×5, the lower top-end values, the lack of SB, and the use of AVG instead of OBP all limit his Surplus Calculator price to the mid-$30s. But where I have him, I think he is an easy keep up to nearly $70. He’s a near lock for top-10 production and he is one of a small set of players who could be the #1 player in either points format or 4×4.

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Luke Raley, 1B/OF
Salary: $3, $5, $6, $6
Average Salary: $4.72
2023 P/G: 4.75
Proj 2024 P/G: 4.32

Raley is a great example of a player whose value is not fully reflected in his P/G. Being a Ray means a lot of things: playing in front of empty crowds, knowing you will be traded the moment you cost more than $0.75 per game, and being used in very specific roles that maximize your value through heavy use of platoons, PH, defensive replacements, etc. Raley got only 43 PA all season vs. LHP and that meant both getting PH and PR appearances in games started by LHP. As a result, he had a number of low-scoring games that kept his P/G under 5. But when he was in the lineup, he posted 5.42 P/G. For context, that is what Nathaniel Lowe and Triston Casas posted overall.

Unfortunately, that’s not the only Raley split that stands out. If it were, he would be an easy keep. But Raley started the season on fire and then faded. Here is his wRC+ by month: 146, 146, 188, 116, 78, 86. His K-rate went up and BB-rate down, but a rolling chart doesn’t scream that this was what went wrong:

Instead, his HR/FB% went down, but while that can be a noisy stat, it’s backed up by a decrease in Sweet Spot (the rate at which he hit the ball at ideal launch angles). He hit more grounders and popups, and his results suffered, backed up by a drop off in xwOBA.

His rolling xwOBA dipped below league average in early July and then went below .300 a week or so later, and never recovered.

Keep or Cut?
I think I am out. Raley has attracted no trade interest this off-season and while I like what he is capable of – just look at that first half! – there are some big red flags. It’s not just the second-half fade, it’s the fact that the second-half fade looks a lot like what he had done earlier in his brief MLB career. He still looks primed to play a key role for the Rays, but I think he is more of a guy to target late in auctions for $1-$3 if he fits your roster than he is a guy to keep at $4+ today. The one $3 version, I am still thinking about, but even at that price, I am not sure I want to tie up a roster spot with him going into the auction before I know how my bench will shape up.

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Max Kepler, OF
Salary: $3, $5, $8
Average Salary: $4.67
2023 P/G: 4.98
Proj 2024 P/G: 5.13

Like Raley, Kepler was hurt by PH appearances, as he posted 5.58 P/G when he was in the starting lineup. This was really his first useful season since 2019, when he went nuts with the bouncy ball and looked like a star. I have been waiting for this year for a while and I was thrilled to see it (which you can see from the three teams I have Kepler on).

What changed for Kepler? Well, Mike Petriello has a pretty good thought:

Max Kepler had such a quietly good year last year. I think people will assume it’s because of the shift ban and maybe that helped a little, but I think it’s also a little more about the “I am going to hit the hell out of the ball in the air and if I whiff a little more, so be it” pic.twitter.com/IXI5Oq6xhl

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) January 3, 2024

Kepler makes contact at a pretty good rate, so that jump in his K% really isn’t a problem – he’s not striking out 30% of the time or anything. And his his decision to “hit the hell of out the ball in the air” came with some pretty smart decisions. His O-swing rate didn’t change (27.7% last year, 27.8% for his career), but he attacked pitches in the zone at a higher rate (74.3% last year, 68.4% for his career) while maintaining his contact rates.

Keep or cut?
Oh, I am all in. I have been in on Kepler for years, just waiting for that breakout. This really looks like it. Steamer is projecting Kepler to give back some of those gains, and you can see it in the projected ISO, but that projection still looks like a $10 OF. There is upside for more if those gains stick.