Ottoneu: Chad’s 2026 Keep or Cut Decisions at CI and C

Jake Mailhot kicked off our series of articles reviewing our toughest keep or cut decisions on Monday, looking at some tough calls at C and CI. Today, I’ll follow his lead and go over my toughest calls at those spots, looking at one tough call each at 1B, 3B, and C.

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Royce Lewis, 3B
Salary: $11, $17
Average Salary: $13
2025 P/G: 3.67
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.17

A quick caveat that I am looking at 4×4 Lewis, so those P/G aren’t an ideal representation of this value, but they do point out the obvious struggle with Lewis: he was bad last year, but has the talent to be very good. That P/G is using Depth Charts projections and that projection comes out to $8-$10 in points and $13-$15 in 4×4. He’s more valuable in 4×4 in large part because the value curve for 4×4 is just different – the top bats are not worth quite as much as they are in points leagues, but the mid-tier guys are worth more.

At first glance, that makes this a short discussion – he’s worth more than $11 but less than $17, done. But with inflation, that $17 price isn’t bad. And then, of course, do we really trust that projection? Depth Charts right now is only using Steamer, but we have a ZiPS projection for Lewis and, well, it isn’t as rosy:

ZiPS looks a lot like 2025, with a bit of positive regression and even adding the 163 extra PA he gets from Depth Charts, ZiPS isn’t touching the value Steamer sees. ZiPS sees a $5 4×4 player, and that extra playing time, if we trust DC more for playing time, doesn’t do enough to get him to double digits.

I am tempted to see something closer to Steamer. In 2025, Lewis decreased his K-rate in part by chasing less, but also by making more contact outside the zone. He gained bat speed and put up exit velocities and a hard hit rate reminiscent of his breakout 2023 season. His barrel rate came way down, this despite all that harder contact and an increased in his Statcast Squared Up rate. This feels like a lot of positive news, doesn’t it? Chasing less, swinging harder, making more contact, making harder contact…his 2025 seems like it could have easily been better than his 2024, and that Steamer projection is basically “a bit better than his 2024.” Not to mention that elite bat we saw in 2023 might still be lurking.

Keep or cut?

I am going to cut the $17 Lewis, but I am in wait-and-see mode on the $11 version. The short answer is that I think he is a decent keeper at that price, in 4×4. $8-$10 feels like a fair expected value, but between inflation and breakout potential, going up to even $13-$15 in an auction seems reasonable. The reason I am in wait-and-see mode is that I have a $12 Isaac Paredes and a $6 Matt Shaw and a $4 Connor Norby and a $3 Noelvi Marte on that roster. Marte can slot into the OF, but I really can’t keep all those 3B and Marte gives me the flex to keep as few as one other 3B. So I’ll wait and see. Do we learn that Paredes is going to play some 2B? Or that his hamstring injury is lingering forever? Do I find a good trade for Norby or Shaw? Or Lewis, for that matter? In a vacuum, that $11 Lewis is a keeper. On this roster? We’ll see.

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Moises Ballesteros, C
Salary: $4
Average Salary: $4
2025 P/G: 4.78
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.74

Let me start with this – you should probably keep a $4 Ballesteros. There really isn’t much reason not to. He projects to being worth $4, he has upside beyond that, and you can’t realistically get him back cheaper at auction.

But he’s a challenge for me due to format and roster construction. My $4 Ballesteros is in a H2H FanGraphs Points league. Comparing H2H to season-long, there are a few differences (replacement level production is lower, volume matters more, etc.) but one in particular matters here: you only get one C slot on your lineup page. Season-long Ottoneu leagues use two catcher slots (but a max of 162 total games at the position) which means you can get away with rostering two catchers who play 80-100 games each and find your 162 total. Even if they both play every Saturday and sit every Sunday (Sunday being a common day-game-after-a-night-game day off for starting catchers), you can use them both Saturday, no problem.

But in H2H, you can’t. On this roster, I also have a $4 Drake Baldwin (who you should also probably keep). But both of these guys have playing time questions. Baldwin could be the primary starting C for Atlanta, but Sean Murphy will play and it isn’t obvious that there will be many DH PA for those two, depending how Atlanta deploys their OF. Ballesteros is less-obviously locked into a role with the Cubs, as he appears to be their 3rd catcher and the Cubs are crowded at DH/1B/COF.

If I had these two on a team with two catcher slots, I would feel good that I could get 162 out of them. But in H2H, there’s real risk that I get weeks where they each play 3-4 games, but most of those overlap, and I am leaving the C slot empty 2-3 times. I hate doing that in H2H.

Keep or Cut?

I should probably shop these two a bit, but my plan is to keep both. My preference is to roster only one C in H2H, but I am going to end up rostering three here, because I don’t think I can rely on just these two. In an ideal world, I can add Murphy at auction and have confidence that I can start SOMEONE every time Atlanta plays. If Ballesteros becomes an everyday DH, I can trade the Atlanta duo and be back to my preferred roster build.

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Charlie Condon, 1B
Salary: $3, $6
Average Salary: $5

I rarely analyze prospects, and I am only kinda-sorta going to analyze one here, but this is one of my tougher keeper decisions. Condon was a high draft pick and for good reason, but his stock has definitely fallen. After a struggle of a pro debut in 2024, Condon handled High-A easily in 2025 and held his own in Double-A. That jump to the high majors is a big milestone for how I think about prospects, so seeing him succeed at that level turned my head.

But there are still obvious warts, including a strikeout rate that pushed over 28% in Double-A. You can succeed with a 28% K-rate in the majors, but if you are at 28% in Double-A, you need to improve to stay at 28% by the time you reach MLB. He also hasn’t quite gotten to his power yet, hitting just 14 HR with a .175 ISO in 433 MiLB PA. That isn’t bad but for a power-over-hit guy who is going to have to slot into the fantasy lineup spot with highest bar, that isn’t really enough.

All in all, I see a guy who could be a solid MLB bat, but is not guaranteed and may be more of a mid-tier 1B than an elite fantasy bat – especially if he ends up as a low OBP guy with 20-25 HR instead of 30-35.

The counterpoint to all of this is that he was already good in Double-A and could be in MLB – and Coors Field – as soon as this season. At a low price, Condon could be a useful option in that scenario, even if he is just slotting in as your 1B or DH for home games only. And there is pedigree for him to turn into a lot more.

Keep or cut?

One of each, I think. The $6 version is expensive enough that I would rather reallocate those dollars. And if I find myself in the auction, wanting to add another prospect, and he’s the best option out there, he is unlikely to cost me more – he’ll probably cost less. That $3 version, though, is worth holding. He could take a step forward. He could help me by late this year. And if he doesn’t do those things, I can always cut him in June and move on.