Ottoneu: Arbitrary Arbitration Salary Increases

by
November 8, 2024

Arbitrary (ar·bi·trar·y)

  1. based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system.

My Ottoneu arbitration strategies have varied over the past few years. I’ve been overly analytical, downloading .csv after .csv, splicing and merging and concatenating until there was more data than I cared to actually do anything with. I wrote last year about measuring salaries against the average and tipping the scales on already overpriced players. Sometimes it can be more fun to simply add a few dollars where it feels right. That’s what I did this year. Here are a few notes and thoughts I recorded as I dished out my dollars:

  • Find Paul Skenes and add as much as possible ($3) to his salary.

There seems to be no right amount of money to roster Skenes. Don’t let one of your league mates roster him for the $13 2024 average. He’s simply too good and he’ll continue to dominate for years to come. His 6.3 P/IP was the third-best mark among pitchers with at least 100 IP in 2024. Above him were Blake Snell (6.6 P/IP) and Chris Sale (6.5 P/IP). Strikeouts and home run suppression are pillars of a points castle in Ottoneu points leagues and Skenes’ 33.1%(!) K% in 133 IP was over 10% higher than the MLB average (22.0%) for all starting pitching. His 0.68 HR/9 wasn’t necessarily elite, but it was significantly better than average (1.21) among the same >=100 IP starter group. He’s 22 years old, and still developing his ability to “pitch”. He deserves a raise.

  • Find Tarik Skubal and add as much as possible ($3) to his salary.

Skubal finished right behind Skenes with 6.2 P/IP and a K% of 30.3%. Skenes may have been must-watch-tv in 2024, but Skubal was steady and reliable. His total points (1191) dwarfed Skenes’ (843) thanks to 192 innings pitched. Like Skenes, Skubal’s average salary is around $13, but unlike Skenes, he has mileage on his arm. In Skubal’s case, that’s a good thing as his breakout came as a 26-year-old, his likely Cy Young season came as a 27-year-old, and he will certainly be a top-ranked, if not the top-most ranked, pitcher going into 2025.

It’s not all about pitching, but these three pitchers (Skenes, Skubal, Crochet) finished in the top ten in 2024 and have average salaries nowhere close to what a top 10 pitcher should be rostered for. Sale’s average is $16 and Snell’s is $24. Ske-Tar-chet are easy targets in this season’s arbitration.

Given pitching’s general volatility, hitters may be a better place to focus in your league. Players like Witt Jr. and Henderson (…and Elly De La Cruz) follow a similar pattern of quick growth. We don’t need to see the graph below to understand how good Henderson and Witt Jr. are and have been, but I’ll post it anyway:

Gunnar/Bobby WAR by Age

 

Witt’s salary has already soared ($30 average), but Gunnar’s hasn’t caught up just yet ($20) and he could be a good target for arbitration dollars.

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Ok, you want to be a little more analytical about things? Here are a few strategies to employ:

Try to put a finger on each team’s given situation

There are many teams who you may be tempted to up the salaries for their star players. Consider the $84 Juan Soto. Anyone who keeps a player at a salary this high can go ahead and do so for all you’re concerned (…and we didn’t even have to be nasty about it.) Don’t waste money. A smart player who took on a huge salary with a loan during a trade knows well enough to cut an overpriced player. Just like you shouldn’t run to put all your money on that $84 Juan Soto, you shouldn’t run to put all your money on a $5 Jurickson Profar. He had a great season, we loved it, but will he do it again and again? No. Now, a team with no players overpaid at the top and a $6 Elly De La Cruz? Beware of that team.

Keep Watch on the Sneaky Returners

There are always wildcards in the deck. Shane Baz of the Tamp Bay Rays, in that case, is a duece. His 1.06 WHIP and 3.06 ERA in 79.1 IP means he finished the season strong. His fastball averaged 95.7 MPH and didn’t reach the highs of two years ago. Yes, his K% and SwStr% were both down from 2022. But, finishing a season strong after an injury is a great indicator (insert great analytical study proving this statement here) of what’s to come in the following season. Shane McClanahan, also of the Tampa Bay Rays is another sneaky return to keep an eye on. Félix Bautista, Jacob deGrom, and the beat goes on…

Put the Hurt on Prospects

There are plenty of up-and-comers like Kyle Manzardo, Noelvi Marte, and Colson Montgomery, but they haven’t done anything yet. Smoke and mirrors. If that’s all your opponent has, then so be it. I once stole second base when my team was up by 13 runs in an adult league baseball game and the first baseman said, “Hey…we usually don’t steal in this league when a team is up more than 10.” I said, “Got it.” and took an extra big lead off second. I’ve also had fellow Ottoneu players tell me, “Gentlemen don’t up the salary on a prospect who has yet debut.” You get to chose what type of player you want to be. That’s one of the extra fun parts.

Take Out the Top

This may be the third or fourth mention of the “cut the head off the snake” strategy, but sometimes teams end up with Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, and Tarik Skubal and you think, “A normal winter thermostat setting is 49 degrees. Just put on more clothes…” Don’t let the rich grow palm trees in their plush downtown sky-rises all winter. Put a few dollars on these teams’ best players and plan to spend at the March re-auction.

Good luck, god bless…and may all your best players sneak through arbitration.





 

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