Optimal ADP Clusters: End Game Outfielders

“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.

• Playing Time (and Role)
• Health/Durability
• Skills/Categorical Contributions
• Context of Team Offense

ADP Cluster: Post-300 Outfielders

ADP from 17 NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC) drafts over the last five days (March 12 – March 16)

• Jasson Domínguez, New York Yankees (ADP 304)
• Cam Smith, Houston Astros (308)
• Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins (309.7)
• Cedric Mullins, Tampa Bay Rays (310.3)
• Carson Benge, New York Mets (310.5)
• Jung Hoo Lee 이정후, San Francisco Giants (310.8)

These outfielders are drafted in the Rounds 25-26 of OCs, typically as an OF5. For shallower 12-teamers with 23-25 rounds, some of these hitters may be early-season waiver targets. Carson Benge is the only one here without major league experience. Jasson Dominguez is rumored to start the season in the minors. Cam Smith, Matt Wallner, Cedric Mullins and Jung Hoo Lee are projected as everyday starters in their respective lineups. Domínguez, Smith, Wallner, and Mullins were all utilized as part of a platoon for parts of the 2025 season.

Playing Time (and Role)

For Jasson Domínguez, it’s a matter of when, not if. The former heralded prospect and top 150 ADP selection from 2025 has seen his 2026 draft stock fall over the last couple of months with expectations of starting the season in Triple-A. After all, the Yankees re-signed Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton (the DH) is healthy (for now) and the great Aaron Judge mans right field. Manager Aaron Boone wants Domínguez to be playing every day, but that opportunity doesn’t yet present itself in the majors. Boone’s problem though is that Domínguez has been forcing his hand with exceptional production in spring training – .371/.395/.686, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB, 170 wRC+ in 38 plate appearances. Domínguez had a decent rookie season (.257/.331/.388, 58 R, 23-of-27 SB in 429 PA), but his playing time was reduced down the stretch and he essentially didn’t play in the playoffs.

For the last couple of months, RosterResource projected Cam Smith as a short side platoon outfielder. That designation has been shifted to full-time right fielder batting eighth on Opening Day. His RosterResource batting order projection will certainly influence his market price these next couple of weeks. What is more important for drafters is to solidify whether they’re buying or fading based on his profile, not projected playing time, because the latter could fluctuate all season like it did in his rookie year. Smith hit lefties better (130 wRC+, .191 ISO) than he did righties (75, .098), but the sample is a small one and not predictive. Jake Myers will be play centerfield, and the other two spots will be split between Smith and lefty bats Joey Loperfido (welcome back to Houston!) and Zach Cole. Smith played 132 games in right field last season.

Matt Wallner can absolutely mash and he may earn the opportunity for full-time at-bats in the context of a weaker lineup that needs him. In 97 plate appearances against lefties last season, Wallner actually had a higher wRC+ (118) than he did against righties (113 in 295 PA) as well as a similar ISO (.247 vs. RHP, .267 vs. LHP). So far this spring, he is hitting .294 with two homers, a stolen base, and a 14.6% walk rate, through 41 plate appearances.

Cedric Mullins signed with the Rays in December in what will the first Opening Day in his career that he doesn’t don an Orioles uniform. A left-handed hitter, Mullins has avoided being platooned for most of his career, but experienced a little bit of it the last two seasons. We expect the Rays to include him in their lineup against both lefties and righties, though if he struggles, this outfield room is loaded with alternatives, including recently acquired rookie prospect, Jacob Melton. Mullins is 31 and has never been an elite defender in center,  posting negative UZR’s in all but one season. Mullins dealt with a back flare-up a couple of weeks ago, but appears healthy now. Through his first nine spring games, Mullins has two homers and a swipe.

Carson Benge is the sweet-swinging, lefty-batting, first-round selection of the Mets in the 2024 draft. He is having a strong camp (.367/.406/.433) and is projected to crack the Opening Day roster. Though he will likely begin the year on the strong side of a right field platoon with slick defender, Tyrone Taylor.

Jung Hoo Lee was a KBO star who signed a 6-year ($18.8M AAV) deal with the Giants two years ago, missed most of the 2024 season with injury, and produced mediocre results in 2025. Lee played 147 of 149 games in centerfield last season, but is being moved back to his original position from his KBO days (right field), primarily because of the offseason acquisition of Harrison Bader. Lee was a better hitter against righties (118 wRC+) than lefties (77) last season, though new manager Tony Vitello will likely start him every game. If Lee happens to stumble against lefties around a time when Luis Matos or Jerar Encarnacion heat up, it’s possible for Lee to fall into a platoon, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Health/Durability

None of the outfielders in this cluster have current injuries to worry about, but most of them have had their fair share of injuries over the years.

Cedric Mullins – The oldest of this group (31), Mullins has had a few lower-body related injury stints over the last few seasons. He missed time with a right hamstring strain last spring and missed over a month with a right groin strain in May of 2023.

Jasson Domínguez – He tore his UCL at the end of the 2023 minor-league season and had Tommy John surgery. He suffered a left oblique strain in the summer of 2024 and missed a couple of games (no IL stint) in June of 2025 with a left thumb contusion.

Jung Hoo Lee – He remained relatively health in his South Korea days, though he broke his ankle and missed half the 2023 season. The following year, his first in the Majors, he dislocated his shoulder crashing into an outfield wall in mid-May and underwent season-ending surgery. He tweaked his ankle in the WBC last week, but it turned out to be a minor issue.

Matt Wallner – He missed five weeks early last season after suffering a left hamstring strain. He also dealt with oblique strains in each of the past two seasons. Not surprising considering the big dude swings hard and carries a big stick.

Carson Benge missed his first season of college at Oklahoma State after an elbow injury caused him to undergo Tommy John surgery. His injury was pitching-related, and the two-way player shifted his focus to hitting and playing the outfield.

Cam Smith does not have an injury history other than minor nicks and bruises.

The two who I’d slightly ding fantasy value for their health and durability are Mullins and Wallner.

Skills/Categorical Contributions

Matt Wallner is in a class of his own here because of his prolific power. Some slight data manipulation here, but Wallner’s 16.1% barrel rate is tied with Mike Trout’s for seventh in the majors among hitters with at least 900 plate appearances since 2023. The guys ahead of him: Aaron Judge (26.2%), Shohei Ohtani (21.5%), Giancarlo Stanton (19.1%), Kyle Schwarber (17.7%), Juan Soto (17%), and Oneil Cruz (16.2%) – elite company, indeed. Wallner hit 22 home runs in 104 games (392 PA) last season, and has 30+ HR upside if he can stay off the IL. His batting average won’t be helpful, but he may throw in a few stolen bases and is one of the rare late-round boons for fantasy squads that might be power deficient.

Cedric Mullins had that magical 30-30 (HR-SB) season in 2021. In his past four seasons, he has swiped at least 30 bags twice, and has averaged 16.5 home runs. He has been a batting average killer though – .228 since 2023. A fair expectation for Mullins in his first season with the Rays would be 12-15 homers, 25 stolen bases, 100-130 R/RBI (combined) and another season with a sub-.240 average.

Jung Hoo Lee has the highest batting average upside of the cluster. He hit .319 in his first 30 games of 2025, went through a rough three-month stretch from May through July (.218), then hit .306 from August 1 until the end of the season. He is capable of hitting .290+ over a full season. His only positive roto category contribution was runs scored (73 in 150 games). He is a solid floor contributor, but you won’t see many projection models bless him with anything more than 10 HR and 10 SB. His allure lies within his potential batting average contributions.

Jasson Domínguez, Cam Smith, and Carson Benge are the three young, upside guys. All would project for double-digit homers and swipes with 500+ plate appearances. Dominguez’s distribution would lie higher on the SBs, though he is capable of 20-plus homers if he earns consistent playing time. Domínguez sported a 49.6% hard-hit rate and stole 23 bases on 28 attempts in 429 plate appearances last season. Smith and Benge have 20-HR, 15-SB potential though neither is likely to get there in 2026. Benge is certainly intriguing as a toolsy prospect with the eventual possibility of being a five-category contributor. Note that he only has 103 plate appearances at Triple-A and he struggled there (.178/.272/.311) after crushing it with a .300+ AVG and .400+ OBP in 92 games at High-A and Double-A.

Context of Team Offense

The best team context here is Domínguez’s with the Yankees, but that is if he is able to earn consistent playing time. Wallner’s team context is sneaky as a middle of the order power hitter, though his counting category contributions hinge on Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis staying healthy, which may be asking a lot. Based on home parks, divisions and other hitters in the lineup, the other four from this cluster have a neutral context.

Verdict (with value grades, A-F)

Jasson Domínguez (A-) may have been overpriced in the 125-150 ADP range last season, but he is being greatly undervalued this draft season, at half the cost, because of lack of role clarity. Dominguez is pushing to crack the Opening Day roster and deserves it, but it would be better if he got the reps in Triple-A. Make the low-cost investment in Dominguez late in your drafts if your roster doesn’t have a bench stash already, and you believe that his everyday role with the Yankees is simply a matter of when.

Jung Hoo Lee (B+) won’t wow us in any category other than potentially batting average. He has a high floor and could easily outproduce his draft cost with another 600+ plate appearances. Perhaps he surprises us with a bit more than what models are projecting.

Matt Wallner (B+) is the ideal power-boost option towards the end of drafts, specifically for folks whose roster construction feel light on power after 20 rounds. I’m less worried about a platoon split than oblique issues or other ailments resurfacing.

Cam Smith (B) and Carson Benge (B-) have the widest range of potential outcomes. Spending a chunk of the season isn’t off the table for either of them, but less so for Smith. Benge rocked a 81% contact rate, and despite last season’s struggles with consistency at the plate in Triple-A, he is less likely than Smith to tank us in the batting average category. Smith could fall into a platoon with Loperfido or Cole, but this is unlikely to happen for a prolonged time period.

Cedric Mullins (C+) may seem like a sneaky and savvy late-round option due to his HR-SB upside, but Tropicana Field is a downgrade from Oriole Park and his projected batting average is a massive detractor to his overall projected value.