Opening Day Diatribes

by
April 7, 2009

A few quick observations from the season’s first full slate of games…

Delmon Young Rides the Pine

It’s probably best not to get too worked up over lineups on the first day of the season, but the erstwhile golden boy of Tampa Bay’s farm system found himself plastered to the Twins’ bench. Granted, Young has been exasperating to watch. He puts the ball on the ground far more than a power threat should, and he swings at anything, really: strikes, balls, curves, sliders, low-flying planes, small animals…he’s basically taken a Vladimir Guerrero-type approach with Wilton Guerrero-like results.

All that being said, Young is still just 23 years of age and holds a career .318/.362/.518 minor league line, that production have come against players several years his senior. The Twins will have to slide four guys (Cuddyer, Kubel, Span and Young) between three slots (the corner outfield and DH). Kubel will take a seat versus lefties, but it’s still a bit disconcerting to see Delmon sat down against a right-hander (Felix Hernandez). Michael Cuddyer might be making a pretty penny, but he’s 30 and holds a career .341 wOBA. Young needs to see every day at-bats.

Elijah Dukes, Justin Upton follow suit

Is Jim Bowden still secretly assailing the Nationals’ decision-making process from afar? I’m not sure how else to explain the absence of Dukes in the starting lineup. He posted a .382 wOBA in 2008, showing secondary skills aplenty and kicking in defensive value to boot. A 24 year-old who might just be your best player, and he’s not guaranteed everyday play. As Dave Cameron put it, “Happy Opening Day, Nationals fans. Hope you weren’t planning on seeing the team’s best player.”

Upton, a 21 year-old wunderkind with even more upside, also found himself drinking Gatorade and flicking sunflower seeds instead of smacking line drives. Upton hit .197 during spring training- I really hope 60 lousy AB’s in March don’t weigh too heavily in Bob Melvin’s consciousness. Upton posted a 107 OPS+ in the majors at an age where most guys are in A-Ball. Choosing Eric Byrnes over that sort of talent just seems masochistic. Scrapaholics Anonymous- the first step is admitting that you have a Byrnes problem…

Drop Lee! Drop Sabathia! Sell! Sell! Sell!

Yeah, don’t do that. Not that you really need the reminder, but don’t let anything that occurs in the next few weeks override years of knowledge acquired about a player. If you want to run your fantasy team like a Jim Kramer, “Mad-Money” style outlet, then be prepared for a John Stewart-like beat down in the standings.





 

A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

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mymrbig
15 years ago

I have to admit, I just don’t understand the Eric Byrnes hate that is often prevelanct at fangraphs and rotographs. Especially at rotographs, since Eric Byrnes can be a pretty studly fantasy guy. And even at fangraphs since Byrnes has put up some nice defensive seasons.

Fangraphs:
Byrnes put up 3.4 value wins in 2004, was horrible in 2005, and then put up 3.3 and 3.9 value wins in 2007, before being horrible again in 2008. 2005 and 2008 were both injury-marred seasons and I don’t think its a stretch to say Byrnes is roughly a 3.5 win player when healthy. I think it is fair to toss out his 2008 UZR do to both sample size and injuries limiting his range, and before that he had shown himself to provide +5 to +12 runs defensively in LF, and the ability to survive defensively in CF (+13.2 career UZR/150 in CF). And while he doesn’t walk a ton, his career wOBA is .338. Why do so many people keep saying he is a glorified 4th OF when he provides plus defense and at least average offense? And he isn’t overpaid either, relative to his production.

Rotographs:
People are seriously complaining about Byrnes getting playing time on a rotoblog? I wouldn’t give him playing time over Justin Upton, but I definitely prefer him to the Conor Jackson / Chad Tracy / Mark Reynolds triumverate. Bynres’ last healthy season he hit .286 with 21 HR and 50 SB. And fantasy folks don’t like that he’s getting playing time? WTF? He has always been a very high percentage base stealer, so it was great to see him take advantage of the green light. And he didn’t really have any huge luck factors working in favor either (slightly elevated BABIP relative to his career norm, HR/FB around career norm).

I just don’t get the Byrnes-hating. Don’t get me wrong, I think the D-Backs were foolish to spend $10 million per year on Byrnes when they already had an OF logjam and the result was selling low on Quentin. But that just speaks poorly of Josh Byrnes’ money-handling skills (or owership, which may have forced the move since Eric Byrnes is a fan favorite). But is should hardly be an indictment of Eric Byrnes, who is a very productive real life and fantasy player when healthy.

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