One Sad (Kung-Fu-Less) Panda

A tough season just got worse for Pablo Sandoval this week when Andrew Baggarly, the San Francisco beat writer, stated out loud what had become increasingly obvious over the past few weeks: the Panda has had to grab some pine. The move has had implications both real and fantasy.

Sandoval is now a dropper in most re-draft leagues. He’s not playing enough and when he does, he’s been struggling. Though he no longer swings at more than 50% of out-of-zone offerings, his 44.4% number in that category this year would still rank him as first- or second-worst among batting title qualifiers in that category over the last three years. He does supplement that with a decent contact percentage on pitches outside the zone (77.1%), but that number ranks as 26th-best this year. And even given that decent contact percentage, he still makes contact on those pitches less often than the average batter on an in-zone pitch (88.2%).

That sort of thing has worked for other batters – obviously, Vladimir Guerrero (39.4 career O-Swing%) comes to mind. Vlad the Impaler owns an edge in both nickname ferocity and power with the bat, and those things are linked. Guerrero’s ISO both career (.243) and 2010 (.191) far out-ranks the kung-fu-less Panda’s (.178, .137 respectively). Guerrero has always had a nice BABIP (.319 career), but until recently he was also a svelte, athletic base runner.

Otherwise, the similarities continue. Guerrero’s groundball-to-flyball ratio is 1.20, while Sandovals’ is over one again (1.19 this year, 1.25 career). They both reach, they both put the ball on the ground, and until this year, they both had nice BABIPs. Sandoval’s current BABIP (.289) is well below his career level (.324) as well as his xBABIP (.307). But, even with a few ticks forward in batting average, his missing power is a problem.

He’s stuck in a bind here. He could elevate the ball more and add some power via the flyball, but then his BABIP would drop because of the basic nature of flyballs. Or he could continue on his path and wait for his BABIP luck to return – he did have close to a .200 ISO combined over his last three minor league stops, with high BABIPs and the same approach. The problem with being a ‘Fat Ichiro’ is that those high BABIPs have something to do with Ichiro’s high volume of groundballs and his ability to use his athleticism and funky run/swing combo to his advantage. Sandoval has neither of those abilities, nor the raw power of Guerrero.

He’s in a tough position, and so are his keeper league owners. Deeper keeper league owners have no choice but to hold on to him and hope the kung fu returns – there’s no sense in selling low. Shallower leagues can bid him adieu.

In re-draft leagues, there are a couple more notes regarding his benching. Edgar Renteria will play shortstop most days, and given his current ISO (.100) and career ISO (.113), it seems that he could outperform his ZiPs RoS ISO (.050) fairly easily. The ZiPs number is understandable given his ISO last year (.078) and age (35), but Renteria’s team is in a pennant race and the end of his career is possibly in sight – motivation levels are high. Deep league owners looking for magic in a bottle could look his direction, considering his availability (5% owned). Ditto for Juan Uribe, but he was playing often already, is owned in more leagues (22% owned), and might just have used up all of his tricks in his two-homer, six-RBI inning the other day.