Odubel Herrera, the Fantasy Relevant Rule 5 Pick

Through the magic of fantasy sport position eligibility designations, Odubel Herrera is looking like one of the more flexible fantasy options available on waiver wires. The time to pick Herrera up is dwindling by the day, if not gone entirely already, in most leagues, but he is still a player worth looking into for trade purposes or for those in long term leagues that want to know exactly what they have.

The Rule 5 pick has played some solid defense thus far, which was demonstrated by his at the wall catch in centerfield yesterday against the Braves’ Jonny Gomes. Having never been a centerfielder before last season, he has shown that he has the ability to stick out in center thus far in his new home. Roman Quinn may be the future at center for the Phillies, which could move Herrera back to the infield when Chase Utley moves on, but for now he is looking as if he has staked his claim to regular centerfield duty going forward. The reason defense matters in this situation is that it ensures playing time. Herrera has hit so far, but not well enough that he would continue to play every day if he were poor defensively.

So, with playing time seemingly intact, the left-handed speedster is an intriguing fantasy option. His .289 batting average will likely not continue given the high BABIP. His transition to the majors looks as one would expect from double-A to the majors. Having been a 124 wRC+ hitter with the Rangers’ double-A club last season, his 100 wRC+ this year seems fair as his walk and strikeout rates have both worsened. Going forward, ZiPS projects an 86 wRC+, which is markedly lower than what we have seen so far.

But while that is true, ZiPS does not see any fantasy relevant stats taking too much of a hit. He has not shown the type of stolen base acumen that he has shown this year, as he usually has close to a two-to-one ratio of stolen bases to caught stealing rather than the five-to-one mark he currently has, but as long as he keeps running he will help more in the stolen base category than anywhere else.

Even if his average does drop to the .276 level (only .013 points) with a .317 OBP as ZiPS expects, he is still a valued fantasy asset given his 2B/SS/OF eligibility and stolen base abilities. Given his speed and his 50% ground ball rate, he has shown the type of batted ball profile that can sustain a high BABIP. But even being optimistic, he is not a .370 BABIP player as very few actually are. ZiPS has his BABIP going forward at .340, which I think is a fair number for a guy with a light bat and a lot of speed. Herrera does remind me a bit of the former Phillies leadoff hitter, Ben Revere.

Everyone loves and fawns over guys eligible at multiple positions. For me, Marcus Semien has been a godsend all season – as I had both hoped and expected. With Elvis Andrus providing very little to me so far, I was willing to move on from Andrus and grab Herrera as a replacement to the injured Jose Reyes. As noted when I spoke about Chris Taylor yesterday, shortstop is a position most fantasy owners are struggling with and Herrera looks like a quality option who can be utilized elsewhere once your team gets healthier.
The few things to understand with the 23-year-old is that the average is almost certainly inflated, his stolen base ratio will likely decline, and batting at the top of the lineup on a team that will probably struggle to score runs is good but not exactly great. Even so, he is a guy that looks to be able to produce decent enough to take a flier on via waiver wire acquisition or trade.