November ADP Market Report: First Basemen

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Dominic Smith (+10.92)- Over the month of November, Smith moved up more than any other player that began the month in the Top 200 in terms of NFBC ADP. Smith had a breakout season in 2020, but it is pretty much a replication of what he did in 2019 with the only difference is that he played close to full time this year. Outside of the playing time, his StatCast data was impressive as well, increasing his barrel percentage, exit velocity, sweet spot percentage, and hard hit percentage. He should retain full time playing time, even with the expected additions the Mets may make which should make him very valuable, especially with his 1B and OF eligibility. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Ryan Mountcastle (+10.08)- Mountcastle jumped up in the ADP during the month of November. If you weren’t paying attention to Baltimore, you may not have noticed that he hit five home runs with a .333 batting average in 126 plate appearances. Mouncastle is a former top prospect that people may have forgotten a bit about, but he should play every day in Baltimore and has 1B and OF eligibility. 

 

Trey Mancini (+24.25)- Mancini has started to rise after good news about his health makes it sound like he may be ready for the season after missing 2020 with cancer. He hit 35 home runs with a .291 average in 2019 and while we won’t know what his baseball shape looks like until we get to spring, he is a great gamble at pick 200. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Rhys Hoskins (-18.79)- Hoskins is falling due to the news about his elbow surgery  in October. While it is not as serious as first thought, he is expected to miss 4-6 months which could put him at risk of missing Opening Day. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ryan McMahon (+15.04)- It is a bit surprising to see McMahon rising. While he hit nine home runs, he struggled much of the season and it only got worse as the season went on. He hits the ball hard, but unfortunately, over 50% of his balls are hit on the ground. With David Dahl being non-tendered, Garrett Hampson could spend more time in the outfield, which would allow McMahon to continue playing full time, but that news hadn’t been out as of the November ADP. 

 

Wilmer Flores (+45.71)- Flores finally found full time playing time with the Giants and was quietly pretty good. He only struck out 17% of the time and popped 12 homers in 213 at bats. The rebuilding Giants seem committed to playing him and have an affordable option for him in 2022, so it is not a given they move him. He has 1B and 2B eligibility and just moved into the Top 300, so he is a nice value pick. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jeimer Candelario (-18.12)- It is a bit weird that Candelario is dropping considering he hit .297/.369/.503 in 2020. Sure, it was only seven home runs, but he plays full time, doesn’t strike out an obscene amount, and has above average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel percentage. He isn’t a world beater, but with first and third base eligibility and a full time role, he is a nice bench bat. 

 

Bobby Dalbec (-13.77)- Dalbec has a ton of power, but he also has a ton of swing and miss. Of all hitters that had at least 90 plate appearances, Dalbec had the third highest swinging strike percentage behind only Jorge Alfaro and Luis Robert and the worst contact percentage in the Majors. He can offer cheap power late, but it will likely come at the cost of batting average. 

 

Renato Nunez (-42.04)- Nunez’s drop is not unexpected after he was cut by the Orioles. However, it would be surprising for him not to get a job somewhere and he has shown he has a ton of power in the bat after a 31 homer season in 2019 and a 12 homer season in 2020. If he can land another full time role, he will be a steal at this price. 

 

Jesus Aguilar (-16.92)- Why is Aguilar dropping? He resigned with the Marlins and played 51 games for them, hitting .277/.352/.457 with eight home runs. Doesn’t make much sense for a team that should continue to get better and seems committed to letting him man first base or DH.