Notable ADP Risers In Main Event Leagues

The NFBC runs all kinds of contests ranging anywhere from $50 to $5000. Two of their main contests are Online Championships which are mainly $350 (qualifiers are available) and their Main Event which is a $1700 buy-in. The attractiveness of the NFBC is that there is an overall prize meaning you can win your league and try to beat everyone else in all of the other leagues for a huge score.

As a fun exercise below, I took the ADP since March 1st for both the Online Championships and the Main Event to compare the two. It’s worth noting that historically the Main Event always pushes up starting pitching. More importantly in Main Events, participants aren’t afraid to get “their” guys. Meaning they will jump ADP by a few rounds to make sure they get a player they love. Here are some players who have taken a noticeable jump between the two leagues. 

Jacob deGrom

Online Championship ADP: 4

Main Event ADP: 2

Pointing out deGrom’s small rise is just to show further proof of pitching being pushed up in high stakes leagues. The entire idea behind taking starting pitching early is all based around replacement value. Sure pitchers come with more risk and are harder to predict but pitchers after that “elite” group come with a big drop-off. The middle round starters this season seem to be a big step below compared to the pitchers going in the first two rounds. 

Lucas Giolito

Online Championship ADP: 16

Main Event ADP: 11

This is interesting because high-stakes players think Giolito is better than the overall consensus. In the Online Championships he was being taken as the sixth pitcher off the board behind deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, and Yu Darvish. In the Main Event drafts, he is the fourth pitcher off the board after the big three. 

Personally, I possess zero shares of Bauer and Darvish and perhaps the high stakes players see what I see. Bauer has way too high of variance in terms of performance with his ERA bouncing up and down year after year like peaks and valleys. Add in the latest news about the MLB cracking down on substance use with pitchers and he becomes a big worry. We all know he is the first one they will be watching. Darvish has been healthy for a season and a half now but that long injury history is still there. He still seems like an injury risk and that is something you don’t want with your first-round pick.

Randy Arozarena

Online Championship ADP: 58

Main Event ADP: 51

Many fantasy baseball players already thought Arozarena was being drafted too high. Apparently, high-stakes players thought he was being drafted too low. What they might believe is the fact that it looked like pitchers made an adjustment towards him and he already seemed to adjust back. He also had that insane hot streak against some of the best pitchers in the league. What makes him most appealing is he can provide you with speed, average, and power.

Ketel Marte

Online Championship ADP: 81

Main Event ADP: 65

Marte is going a full round earlier compared to Online Championships. I’ve heard from some very successful fantasy players that they think he is in for a big rebound this season. 2020 was a down year after Marte broke out but nothing really indicates regression. His surface stats aren’t good but the underlying metrics still show that 2019 potential. His max exit velocity was still at a high level and even in spring training he seems to be crushing the ball. The high average isn’t really in question but if the power does come back you are looking at a five-category player.

Jeff McNeil

Online Championship ADP: 99

Main Event ADP: 88

I was surprised by this one because there hasn’t been a lot of buzz around McNeil. The multi-eligibility definitely helps as you can move him around at second base, third base, and outfield. What might really be driving up his ADP is the belief in his second month of the season. In 102 plate appearances, McNeil hit for .356 with four home runs. 

Back in 2019, he did hit for .318 with 23 home runs, 83 runs, 75 RBIs, and 5 stolen bases. We all know the potential is there it’s just a matter of him repeating it for another season. It also helps that the Mets lineup is one of the best in the league, something that could help McNeil’s numbers.

Victor Robles

Online Championship ADP: 114

Main Event ADP: 93

Not only do Main Event participants usually drive up starting pitchers ADP but they also push up players who provide stolen bases. Robles is a relatively affordable steals option (relative in that he actually goes just inside or even sometimes outside the top 100, which is rare as Paul showed in this piece) with upside. He is still just 24 years old and if he can hit well enough to stay in the lead-off role for the Nationals he could put up a monster season in terms of runs and bags.

Marcus Semien

Online Championship ADP: 124

Main Event ADP: 104

Another case of people chasing steals here. Semien is also somewhat of an upside play. He could potentially hit 30 home runs while also stealing double-digit bases. His position (SS) is shallow this year and he is the perfect option if you miss on one of the elite shortstops. What also makes him appealing is the lineup he is in. He joins a young and talented Blue Jays lineup that could certainly be the best in the league this season. 

Ed. note: Plus, he’ll add 2B eligibility immediately.

C.J. Cron

Online Championship ADP: 174

Main Event ADP: 137

This is wild! Cron is being taken a full 2.5 rounds earlier in Main Event drafts. Cron has some buzz surrounding him because he now plays for the Colorado Rockies. This of course means he gets to play half of his games in Coors Field. When that happens typically all of your offensive stats go up. Cron has always had power it was just a matter of playing time for him. If he can get 550-600 plate appearances 40 home runs is a total possibility. Here are the BAT X Projections for Cron based on 531 PA’s: .270, 29 home runs, 70 runs, and 85 RBIs. That is a four-category producer that you can get in the ninth round.

Ed. note: Being added to the 40-man and locking in a spot aided this boost, too!

Tyler Mahle

Online Championship ADP: 167

Main Event ADP: 150

The rise in ADP for Mahle could be a factor of two things: 1) pitchers just being pushed up or 2) fantasy players really buying in on his 2020 season. I’d like to think it is more the latter. Mahle has always had a fantastic fastball, great command, and a good splitter. He always lacked that third pitch and last season he found it with his slider. I’m all in.

Aaron Civale

Online Championship ADP: 171

Main Event ADP: 153

I personally love to see Civale being pushed up as well. As someone who completely loves his foundation, it is good to see that other people are noticing too. There has been some hype this offseason with the new shorter arm path he has been working on but even before that Civale seemed to be on his way to becoming one of the better pitchers in the major leagues.

Jean Segura

Online Championship ADP: 192

Main Event ADP: 172

After a down 2020 season people have forgotten about Jean Segura. Segura has always been above league average when it comes to getting on base. Getting on base typically leads to more stolen bases and runs. He currently sits at the bottom of the Phillies lineup but with Andrew McCutchen at the helm, a player who is 34 and has an injury history, Segura could definitely take that top spot at some point during the season. If that happens we can see a lot of value from Segura in terms of runs and bags making him a three-category contributor. 





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Creamy
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Creamy

A few things to consider. Online Championships are 12 team leagues and there are probably at least 2 drafts a day since March 1st while the Main Events are 15 team leagues and started last Saturday, so you may have 50 OCs vs. 10 Mains that this ADP is based on . . .

dukebd555
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dukebd555

This year was weird in a good way that the first and second rounds never fell into a pattern in OCs. You had like 6 different guys go first. The back half of the first round had a different order to each draft. And the second round always differed because people prefer different features