Nobody Cares About This Fantasy Team
I am not immune to self indulgence. Once a year, I whip off the covers of my simulation league set 11 years in the past. It was originally founded by the Astros resident Rasputin, Kevin Goldstein and still includes other baseball giants. It’s not just a sim league, it’s a sim league with cachet.
Before you run away, let’s pause to set some expectations. No, you won’t be able to use this information to win your 2019 fantasy league. However, if you were watching baseball back in 2008, you might enjoy reacquainting yourself with some forgotten names.
It’s a 20 team keeper league. We use a software called Diamond Mind Baseball (DMB) to simulate a full season and playoffs. Essentially, we’re playing a dynasty league where we already know how the players performed. Now we just need to manage them into the right spots.
It’s not so different from how we play normal fantasy baseball. We already mostly know which names are and aren’t good. So we let some humans bearing those names simulate stats for us.
The league does have one interesting wrinkle. We call it “gruntling.” To keep a player, he must be gruntled. And to gruntle a player, they must accrued 80 percent* of their real world plate appearances (for hitters) or batters faced (for pitchers). This is so you can’t just stash future talent at no cost. If you want Anibal Sanchez’s saucy 2019 season, first you have to feel the pain. A LOT of it.
*There are allowances for injuries. Yes, we have injuries. They’re woefully common.
I’m excited. It’s 2008 and for the first time since joining the league prior to the 2005 season, my team is competitive. I’ve been building for this season ever since I took over a roster bearing Troy Glaus, Milton Bradley, and CC Sabathia. The last three seasons were spent building a juggernaut. My home park is Coors Field.
Already Gruntled
I don’t know why I still have Atchison except that he doesn’t play until 2010 so I don’t have to do anything to gruntle him. He’s legit good in 2011 and 2012.
Catcher
Catchers in the past also sucked. Napoli is actually good, but he only has 274 plate appearances. The others range from 10th to 20th best at the position. It’s important to roster enough catchers to make it through the season while accounting for injuries.
Only Napoli and maybe Blanco will be kept.
First Base
This turned out to be one of two patchwork positions. The 2008 season is the year DeRosa was mysteriously excellent. Branyan posts a ludicrous 1.029 OPS versus right-handed pitchers (and goes 0-for-14 against southpaws). Tatis has good hitting stats, terribad defense, and a clutch setting called “terror.” Basically, he drives in RISP like a bandit. He’ll be my primary pinch hitter.
Second Base
He comes to the plate 704 times so I don’t need anybody else. He’s my leadoff man and an on base machine.
Shortstop
Rather than roster an actual good shortstop, I decided to make a Frankenstein monster. It may not look like it, but this amalgamation is easily a top five performer at the position. Miles has that “terror” setting – which I swear is globally rare, although it’s common on my team. Santiago and Nomah have over a 1.000 OPS versus left-handed pitchers. Harris and Eckstein are super utility. If all goes to plan, they will barely play.
Third Base
Troy Glaus
Seven players – all mentioned above – also have third base eligibility and thus can back up Glaus. He’s another guy who’s a terror in the clutch. Soak it up, this is basically his last hurrah.
Outfield
Milton Bradley
Dukes probably won’t escape my reserve roster. He’s a backup pinch hitter to Tatis, offering the same offensive stats and terrible defense. No clutch terrors though. Besides, Dukes hit 16 home runs for me in 190 plate appearances last year (2007), so I couldn’t just cut him loose. He earned this spot!
Bradley is my cleanup hitter with a 1.127 OPS against left-handed pitching, .929 OPS versus righties, and more terror. He’s a bad defender, but my pitchers will get over it. This is Ludwick’s go year. He hit 37 home runs in St. Louis. How many will he hit at Coors Field? Werth posted a 1.020 OPS against southpaws, but he’s merely average against righties. Unfortunately, he’s the only outfielder I must gruntle which means finding 386 plate appearances for him.
Damon has good numbers against righties. Kapler scorches lefties.
Starting Pitchers
CC Sabathia
Sabathia was the top pitcher in 2008, although our sim season won’t play that way. Sim leagues are notoriously tough on left-handed pitchers. Clayton Kershaw (2008 is his debut year!) will probably only be a top 10 or 15 pitcher in his peak seasons. The rest of my five man rotation all rates top 20 at the position. Shields used to be good! Sweet Erv was dealing way back then. Greinke goes nuts in 2009. Nolasco… well… let’s just say I have a theory that DMB more closely approximates xFIP than ERA.
As for Cook, he’s a solid performer in 2008 despite taking his real world reps at Coors Field. He’s only there in case two pitchers hit the disabled list at the same time.
Relievers
This is my shining achievement. My bullpen was a disaster zone when I took over this team. Some of these guys, like Robertson, League, Grilli, Oviedo, and Mujica, don’t offer much in terms of instant gratification. Only Oviedo is outright bad in 2008 so I should be able to gruntle them all. I may have trouble finding reps for Oviedo. Camp has solid future seasons, but I won’t sweat getting him gruntled. Delcarmen is now or never.
Who remembers Devine’s one ridiculous season? Guess which year it happened…
I won’t need to add relievers for awhile with Papelbon, Street, Robertson, Wilson, and Motte anchoring the bullpen – to say nothing of Grilli, League, and Mujica. You may forget, but elite relievers used to be pretty rare.
Wrap Up
Anything less than a World Series berth would be a massive disappointment. While my pitching staff will transfer long into the future, I’ll sadly lose most of my offense after this season. Of those I keep, only Werth, Napoli, and Roberts will have future value.
The 2009 campaign might be a lost cause if I can’t fill gaps at first, shortstop, third, and two outfield spots. It’s Roberts’ last hurrah too so I might as well cash him in on the trade market. For now, I have a season to simulate!
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Historical sim leagues are so much fun. I need to give more recent history like this a try.
Can we get a primer how this works? I don’t understand the mechanism of how the game is played. Are you running a simulation with the actual events already determined?
Basically, it’s similar to how a baseball video game works. The players’ actual performance is converted into attributes (mostly behind the scenes) which are then interacted on a pitch-to-pitch basis until an entire game is played. Instead of collecting fantasy categories, we collect team wins/losses.
We also get to set lineups, rotations, bullpen, and advise the manager as to what behaviors to follow. The managers tend to be very willfully dumb at times. Basically, we’re the GM.
How do you make sure you get those juicy vLHP matchups and ‘terror’ RISP spots? Are relievers not used as aggressively?
The teams are managed by the computer (CM). So you give them some settings as to how to use players then they systematically ignore them. There basically are no “only guys” because they’re left in for a full inning. As long as you don’t leave 2 LHH in a row, you shouldn’t have a problem. I don’t even roster LHP relievers as they hurt more than help. CC and Wandy are my lone southpaws.
Diamond Mind is a terrific game. I played it for 12 years. The only issue is that the game engine hasn’t been updated because its creator, Tom Tippett, sold it in 2006. Here is a link to Fans of Diamond Mind Baseball:
https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/fansofdmb/index.php?sid=9d55c6b8ace9f6eec55f0273d9bbb244
This article made me wonder what stats Dee Gordon and 8 of his clones would do over the course of a full season
Then you need to read this awesome NotGraphs article:
https://not.fangraphs.com/dangerous-experiment-a-roster-of-25-adam-dunns/
Thanks I was baiting for the link
I remember when Joey Devine jumped from a 68 overall rating in 2k8 to an 80+ monster reliever in 2k9 after that insane 2008 season. I would send him or Ruddy Lugo down to AAA in 2k8 for a “relief upgrade”.
True. I don’t care about this fantasy team. But so what? You don’t care about my online Magic the Gathering decks. We’re both having fun. Life is short. Let’s enjoy what we enjoy before we’re south of the dirt.
I’d care if you had Hearthstone decks.