Nine 2017 Average Fly Ball Distance Surgers

It’s been Statcast’s average fly ball distance (Avg FB Dist) week, as I introduced the metric on Monday and then listed and discussed names whose Avg FB Dist marks suggest there is either extra stuff going on or some missing ingredients in their batted balls. Today, let’s dive into fantasy relevant players whose Avg FB Dist marks surged the most versus 2016.

Back when I was still using the old xHR/FB rate that relied on Statcast’s Brls/BBE metric, I shared the 2017 Brls/BBE surgers. You know who topped that list? The same guy who tops this one, Jake Marisnick. The Astros outfield is full so our depth charts project just 217 plate appearances, but there was a clear change in plate approach here. The spike in strikeout rate, coupled with an elevated fly ball rate suggest something is going on here, and given that his power outpu skyrocketed, this appears to be a new man. He has now essentially become a more fly-ballin’ version of Keon Broxton.

Yulieski Gurriel found himself on yesterday’s curious list of hitters whose Avg FB Dist ranking fell much higher than his Brls/True FB ranking. It means Gurriel is doing something more with his batted balls that are causing them to go further that isn’t exit velocity or launch angle related. He clearly started recapturing his Cuban power, but he still has a ways to go, as a 10.8% HR/FB rate from a first baseman just doesn’t cut it these days.

Scott Schebler pulled an Adam Duvall, basically hitting an empty 30 homers. The good news here is that he posted a nearly identical wOBA against left-handers, so he shouldn’t be platooned. That said, he also walked a hilarious one time in 138 plate appearances versus southpaws. That’s a 0.7% walk rate!

I mentioned in my updated xHR/FB rate post that the move from Brls/BBE to Brls/True FB will no longer unfairly punish low fly ball hitters (and unfairly reward high fly ball hitters). Willson Contreras is one of the obvious hitters whose HR/FB potential was deceptively low by my original equation because he has yet to reach the 30% fly ball rate plateau. Now he gets his due, where we find his Avg FB Dist was only six feet less than Giancarlo Stanton.

Speaking of Giancarlo (yeah, I skipped Howie Kendrick, but you don’t care, do you?), it’s pretty crazy that he was already elite in 2016, and yet he still managed to raise his mark enough to make this list. While I cannot imagine he performs even better in the HR/FB rate department, it’ll be fun to see how the Yankees Stadium park factors affect him. Their right-handed home run factor is significantly higher than Marlins Park, but will it really boost Stanton’s HR/FB to 40%?

Ryan Zimmerman doubled his HR/FB rate on the back of a 27 foot increase in Avg FB Dist. Will he stay healthy enough to do it again? I’ll let you bet on a repeat.

So once again, Javier Baez enters a season without a guaranteed starting job, but he’ll probably still manage to find 500 plate appearances somewhere. It’s actually pretty amazing that he only struck out 28% of the time, given the fact that his SwStk% mark sat at an astounding 18.6%! How is that possible? Easy, he swung at everything. If you keep swinging, eventually you’ll put the ball in play and avoid striking out. It’s a risky way to live at the plate.

Here we sit in late January, and J.D. Martinez still doesn’t have a home. His transformation has been pretty unbelievable.