Nicklaus Gaut’s 2023 Third Base Ranks

I won’t mince words; it’s ugly in here. While more fantasy cream has risen to the top of third base, the middle class has been virtually decimated, sinking down into a muck where everyone seems to come standard equipped with all sorts of questions with answers that could sink their ultimate values. Playing time concerns, limited profiles, category sinks – once you hit the cliff, everything is in play.

And that cliff will sneak up on you.

Before we go diving, let’s look back at how the values shook out at the hot corner in 12-team leagues last season. Here were the top 50 by value rank, by year, and by half, along with ADP information from last year and this year.

And here are the roto stats that got them to the above, again for the year, as well as by half:

Okay, future time. Here are my initial ranks for 2023, along with current projections, followed by all of the total tiers you’re normally used to:

Tier: God Mode

I made the case last year that, given the (lack of) quality at the position, José Ramírez was the best bet if picking first overall. TL;DR – If you passed on José, then he, Machado, and Devers would be gone by the time it got all the way back to you, leaving you to either take Riley well above his ADP or pass on the position again and wade into a dark sea of questionable choices.

Even with a few more players joining the top groups, that same case can still be made in 2023. If you pass on Ramírez at #1, you’re not picking again until #24 in a 12-team and #30 in a 15-team – IE you’re almost certainly not getting Bobby Witt Jr. (8 ADP), Manny Machado (15 ADP), Rafael Devers (20 ADP), or Austin Riley (23 ADP).

Sure, you can still snag Nolan Arenado (42 ADP) in Rounds 2/3, or pass again and take the chance that Alex Bregman (83 ADP, min 58) will still be around in Rounds 4/5. And if that’s not your cup of tea, maybe a later pick will work out. I mean, some do every season, right?

Or-rrrrrr, you can make your life a lot simpler by simply selecting someone who’s one of fantasy’s best producers, year in and year out, and letting everyone else stress out about whether to pin their hopes on the likes of Ke’Bryan Hayes or Alec Bohm.

Me? If I’m picking first overall (and I’d rather not), I’ll take the player who’s going to take a lot of roster construction anxiety off of my draft plate.

Tier: Lesser Deities

Manny Machado, SD

Bobby Witt Jr., KC

Austin Riley, ATL

Rafael Devers, BOS

Tier: Everything Still Seems Fine, Why So Worried About Third Base?

Nolan Arenado, STL

Alex Bregman, HOU

“I don’t see what the big deal is. Sure we missed out on the seven guys above but those ADPs are so high! You can find great players outside of the top 75 – I’ll for sure find someone awesome, and without spending an early pick like all those other rubes. Wait – Do you hear yodeling? That’s crazy, right?”

“Ok, now I’m pretty sure there is some sort of yodeling moving in our direction. What in the fresh he-…”

…..

……….

………………..

Welcome to the land beyond the cliff. You’ve decided to pass on one of the top seven options, opting instead to hunt for a starter deeper in the draft. Just as with every year, value will pop up in all sorts of places. But it’s a minefield at third base – good luck.

And beware; just one false step, you’ll quickly wind up like me in one of my first drafts of the year; staring down the barrel of a Ryan McMahon and quaking in my boots.

Tier: He Can Hit Lefties, Rii-gghhht?

Gunnar Henderson, BAL

I’m still game for Gunnar Henderson if the price is right, but even if he shakes out as projected, there is a large gap in values between him and the players before. But even though you just fell off of a cliff, you still have to figure something out and Henderson has a skill set that carries a big fantasy upside.

Henderson pairs 20/20 potential, with a decent average, while batting near the middle of an Orioles offense that has higher expectations than they’ve had in years. Roster Resource currently has him penciled in to hit third, sandwiched between Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle, with Cedric Mullins leading off. That seems like a pretty good situation to rack up R+RBI! Well, it will be as long as Henderson can keep that spot every day by starting to hold his own against fellow left-handers, after going 3-for-26 in his first taste, slashing .130/.231/.217, with a 32 wRC+.

But why care about such a small sample, yeah? Well, because it’s not just 26 PA. Henderson also had 168 PA vs LHP, combined at Double- and Triple-A in 2022, and slashed .208/.316/.354, with a .670 OPS. And across three levels (and 123 PA) in 2021, he slashed just .189/.293/.349, with a .642 OPS. These are not the splits you are looking for.

Maybe, Henderson will learn how to hit lefties in the majors, after never really doing so in the minors. Or, perhaps he won’t. Regardless, we can all agree that Cedric Mullins shouldn’t be the one giving him lessons.

Tier: Batting Average, Smatting Average

Max Muncy, LAD

Eugenio Suárez, SEA

Matt Chapman, TOR

Any of the above could pop off for 30+ HR but could also approach Mendoza Line without blinking an eye. I’m at least more bullish on Eugenio Suárez than Steamer and consider his HR+R+RBI a very safe bet. But he hasn’t stolen a base since 2020 and I’m not going to assume that the rule changes in shifting will bring a lot of extra hits for someone like Suárez, an extreme fly-ball hitter who’s trying his best to go up and over fielders, regardless of their positioning. Go in knowing he’s a two-category sink, and you probably won’t be disappointed.

The top-level exit velocities of Matt Chapman keep telling my heart that he still has another 35 HR outburst in him but my eyes say it’s lying. 30 HR? Sure! Maybe. But with no speed, and a potential batting average anchor, any category gravy will need to come courtesy of R+RBI – and the Toronto offense it will depend on. If you’re a believer in the Blue Jays and can plan for the BA hit, this may just be the Canadian third baseman you’ve been waiting for.

Tier: Oh No, I Really Shouldn’t Have Waited on Third Base

Alec Bohm, PHI

Jose Miranda, MIN

I’m a fan of Jose Miranda and he was one of the few rookies I was keen to draft last season. But with no standout category contributor (and no speed), his value will hinge on getting a lot on PAs and compiling R+RBI.

While 600+ PA seems within reach, his compilation will depend on a Minnesota offense that currently looks straggly, at best. I mean, what is this thing? So far, their big moves have been to swap Gary Sanchez for Christian Vázquez and to replace Carlos Correa with…Umm, no one. Granted, Luis Arraez will usually be on base, and Byron Buxton will be great – at least, for the 90 games he’ll likely play. But the rest? Shaky, shaky, shaky.

Tier: Oh NO! I Really, Really, (Definitely!) Shouldn’t Have Waited

Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT

Josh Rojas, ARI

Do you know what never happens in MLB? A hitter comes up and in his first small sample, totally blows away his expectations, relative to what he’d previously shown in the minors. Then, after we get hot and bothered and wonder if maybe this transformation is the new normal, said hitter falls back to Earth/back into the player we thought he was. Crazy, right? Totally never happens.

For example, Ke’Bryan Hayes came up through the Pittsburgh system on the strength of his defense, wielding a 70-grade glove, with good speed and an above-average hit tool. But then he came up in the shortened 2020 season and “exploded” for five home runs in 95 PA (.053 HR/PA), backed by excellent exit velocities. Hayes’ average EV on balls in the air was in the 83rd percentile, and his Air% (100+ mph) was in the 87th.

Umm, yeah – we haven’t seen those EVs since. His Air% EV has been in the 43rd percentile the past two seasons, and his Air% (100+ mph) was in the 54th and 64th. In fact, we haven’t seen anything like 2020, since:

Okay, I’ll grant you that the speed has been nice, so if you’re trying to get stolen bases from one of the players past the cliff, he’s one of the few options. But no other part of those magical 95 PA will be walking back through that door.

Some will still believe, though, as the echo of small-sample pasts seems to linger longer in fantasy, hopecasting value based on a return to that flash in the pan. However, if you think Hayes is going to unlock that power again, boy, do I have a Yandy Díaz to sell you.

But hey! At least his glove will keep him on the field, and maybe he’ll compile a decent amount of R+RBI getting to batting every day in the middle of an offense that mig-…BA-HA-HA-HA. I couldn’t keep a straight face any longer. Hayes plays for the Pirates.

Just like everyone else over the cliff, the fantasy value of Josh Rojas comes with a lot of questions. Mostly, for him, it’s will he actually play every day. If he does, he’ll be a great source for speed, with a batting average that won’t kill you, but very little power, and with an unexciting ceiling for R+RBI. So, basically, he’s Hayes without the job security. Awesome?

Tier: That New Hotness

Jordan Walker, STL

Josh Jung, TEX

Keep it together, Nicklaus, keep it together. Just stay cool. I try not to get too overhyped about St. Louis prospects, hedging against any hometown bias that may creep in unbeknownst to my conscious mind. But to be fair, the Cardinals have made it really easy to not put a lot of faith in their ability to develop star hitters. Or, at least, develop them AND don’t trade them to Tampa Bay.

However, I’m also having a hard time not getting excited about the impending debut of Jordan Walker. And with more rumblings that the Cardinals will be giving him a real chance to win a job out of Spring Training, my fantasy pants are starting to get a little tight with excitement.

Still just 20 years old, Walker goes six-foot-five, 22o lb., and is one of those hitters that the ball jumps off of the bat – it just hits different, ya dig? He dominated in his first shot at Double-A in 2022, slashing .306/.388/.510 over 536 PA, hitting 19 HR, with 22 SB. And he didn’t slow down in the Arizona Fall League, hitting five more home runs in 90 PA, with three stolen bases, while slashing .286/.367/.558. I’m not one to invest too much in youth, too fast, but damn it, that stick looks legit.

But putting talent aside, a job from the jump is the first hurdle that every hot prospect must overcome on their way to being worthy of significant draft capital. So, instead of getting out of my depth with more prospect talk, let’s instead turn this into a binary decision, assuming his skills are for real and that a year-long job would make him fantasy prime beef*. The only remaining question, if making that assumption, is whether Walker will have a year-long job, or not.

* Not to mention make his ADP catapult. Remember how Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr. jumped last year after their jobs became more likely? I’m not saying Walker is them but you better believe that he’ll be looking at a near 100 ADP if the word becomes a job is his.

Okay, coach, put me in. We might not arrive at a 100% answer but I can at least break down where the Cardinals roster currently stands, where room can be had, and what would need to happen to make it so.

To make sure we’re thinking about positional switches and playing time possibilities that actually make sense, let’s set a few parameters.

1. His starting PAs will come from the outfield and DH, only occasionally spelling Arenado at third. The Cardinals started his transition to the outfield last season, with Walker starting 25 games in right field, two games in left field, and four games in center. And he made all his starts at the AFL in the outfield, with the majority coming in right field but also getting a surprising eight games in center.
2. The St. Louis infield is mostly set, and while Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan can play the outfield, they really shouldn’t. So, no plans that involve putting them out there in any significant capacity.
3. The outfield is also mostly set, with Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson locked in. And while you might think Lars is an easy place for Walker to vampire PAs from, know that the Cardinals really love them some Nootbaar. He’s a lefty that is better vs LHP (.364 wOBA, 137 wRC+), is above average vs RHP (.328 wOBA, 113 wRC+), doesn’t strike out much vs either hand and plays good defense. These are the type of factory settings that the Cardinals have been trying to pump out for decades. Noot’s gonna play.

That leaves DH if we’re talking about the most likely chance of  Walker winning a full-time job from the jump. His bat (and the Cardinals belief in it) is certainly good enough to carry the slot but St. Louis is also going to need to feed two other DH-only mouths in Juan Yepez (who can play OF but shouldn’t) and Nolan Gorman (who really, really shouldn’t play 2B but technically can). Neither’s bat is in Walker’s class but they’ll siphon his starts, nonetheless.

As things currently in St. Louis roster land, if Walker wins a starting job out of spring, it’ll likely be one that clocks in something less than full-time, with a majority of starts at DH being supplemented by occasional days in the outfield. Even if this is the case (and the sub-500 PAs comes with it), Walker’s value (and potential) is still worth drafting, especially in deeper leagues, or ones with daily moves.

Okay, that seems like the most likely path for Walker, and that’s about what I’m projecting right now. Or, things could go even worse and he won’t get a job out of spring, getting the classic top prospect treatment of not getting called up until June. This would be less than super. However…

Not to go full-ghost of Billy Mays on y’all but WAIT(!) – there’s more.

Before signing Willson Contreras, the Cardinals attempted to trade for Sean Murphy but ultimately bowed out, with Oakland reportedly asking for an unreasonable package of Nootbaar, Donovan, and top pitching prospect, Gordan Graceffo. But more interesting (and tangentially germane to our Walker question) is what the Cardinals reportedly offered, asking Oakland to pick two of  Gorman, Yepez, Alec Burleson, and…disappointing hitter but farm system golden boy (and starting plus center fielder), Dylan Carlson.

Do you see a lot of center fielders laying around in St. Louis? Or, like, any? With Harrison Bader gone, the only reasonable option on the roster is O’Neill, who played just 21 games there in 2022. That might be making “reasonable” do a lot of work but who else is there? Unless St. Louis had planned on trading Carlson and then trading for a replacement (a bold strategy, Cotton), it seems to me they had just accepted taking the hit with O’Neill in center field because of the slot it would open up for Walker.

As it stands now, Dylan Carlson is still a Cardinal and the hot stove has cooled off. But we’re still a long way from spring training and, last time I checked, the St. Louis rotation is relying on a lot of hope, and is anchored by the ghost of Wainwright past. If the Cardinals try again to cash that Carlson (or O’Neill) chip in, Jordan Walker will get doused with ADP rocket fuel.

Josh Jung returned from shoulder surgery in 2021 and showed plenty of pop in 2022, hitting six home runs in 106 PA at Triple-A and five more in his first 102 PA in the majors. Unfortunately, his experience was more of a “two true outcomes” situation, with those five dongs coming with a .204/.235/.418 slash line, a 38% K%, and a 4% BB%.

However, a 13.2% SwStr% makes me feel better about that ugly K%, and while Jung’s 27.6% Z-O (zSw% – oSw%) is bottom-tier, it’s the good (okay, better) kind of low number, as it’s being powered not by a high chase-rate but by a lack of aggression on pitches in the zone. Comparing him, for context, Bobby Witt Jr., Jung’s 34% oSw% is virtually identical but Witt’s 71% zSw% is clearly a step ahead.

More aggression in the zone should bring more contact, and that contact will probably stay in the air, considering a 51% Air% in 2022. And considering his Air% (100+ mph) that was (in the small sample) in the 98th percentile, more balls in the air is where you want Jung to live. But those rates came with the biggest of uppercuts (38+ degrees LA% in the 100th percentile), which is great for fly balls (and home runs) but terrible for BABIP, and consequentially, batting average.

Like the player, don’t love his roto circumstances, as Jung’s AVG + SB are likely sinks, and the R+RBI might be a lot lower than what you’re looking for from someone with his kind of pop, considering he’ll likely be preceded by a bevy of hitters not known for their high OBPs. A 214 ADP (173 min, 296 max) is palatable enough to bet on the upside but this isn’t a profile that I’m eager to roster. This year, at least.

Tier: The Truest OTP Around

Jon Berti, MIA

One-Trick Ponies, thy god is Jon Berti. Roster Resource has Berti penciled in at leadoff for the Marlins, and if that actually holds all season – i.e. ~600 PA – then he could actually rack 75 SB. However, the more Berti plays, the more he tends to get exposed; like slashing .205/.275/.295 in the second half of 2022, with a .257 wOBA and 64 wRC+. But even if he only manages 400 PA, you’ll probably still bank ~30 SB and that might just be a trick worth planning for!

Tier: But Coooooor-rrrrss!

Ryan McMahon, COL

Colorado hitters always seem like an enticing option, and so does Ryan McMahon, clocking in as the projected #11 3B in 2023, according to Steamer.

Well, at least, he seems enticing right up until you look at his splits, both home vs road and LHP vs RHP. And don’t even get me started on combining the two. Actually, do get me started – this is a rankings piece, after all, isn’t it?

Home vs Road (career)

Home: .270/.344/.496, .840 OPS, .357 wOBA, 97 wRC+

Away: .215/.301/.351, .652 OPS, .288 wOBA, 78 wRC+

Well, duh. Colorado players hitting worse on the road isn’t a surprise to anyone.

RHP vs LHP (career)

vs RHP: .247/.328/.437, .765 OPS, .330 wOBA, 92 wRC+

vs LHP: .236/.313/.402, .715 OPS, 310 wOBA, 79 wRC+

Again, it’s not shocking to see a left-handed hitter faring worse against left-handed pitchers. But by those powers combined?

Not exactly Captain Planet:

Sure, McMahon can be started on the road, but should he be? And don’t forget, those are his career numbers. Maybe we should also check in on recency bias:

Let’s rephrase our question. Can you start McMahon on the road vs RHP? Sure, you can but should you? But can you start McMahon on the road vs LHP? Umm, no. No, you cannot. He’s a straight-up liability.

If you have the roster flexibility to only start McMahon at home (and hopefully, vs RHP), then by all means. But I don’t think that’ll be true for a majority of players.