Nicklaus Gaut’s 2022 3B Rankings

Hello, there, I’m Dante and I’ll be your guide through this third base of fantasy value. If you missed out on first base and want to read why I’m including my projections with these rankings, please turn to page 182. But to continue your adventure down this path, just keep straight ahead.

Without further ado, here are my top-29 3B for 2022. Why just 29? Because that’s how many third basemen qualify in my values, you silly goose.

ADP taken from NFBC drafts over the last two weeks (n=29) and players are sorted by their most valuable fantasy position, following a hierarchy of: C > 2B > OF > 3B > 1B > SS

 Tier One

I’m more and more convinced that taking José Ramírez first overall is the wisest move when drafting in a 15-team (or deeper) league. In fact, I’d say I’m completely convinced. This is ultimately more about position than value but not because Ramírez is a slouch in the latter, carrying a high floor that’s built on five-category production. But I just don’t have him quite on the same level as my top-five hitters overall, who I’m projecting as being superior in batting average, home runs, and/or stolen bases.

However, if you pass on Ramírez when picking first, things are going to get really dire, real fast. By the time you pick again at #30/#31, Devers and Machado are definitely going to be gone and in some drafts, Austin Riley* will be too. And even if he is there, Riley at #30 is not a reach I really want to make. So, if you pass and Riley is gone when it comes back around to you at #60/#61, you’ll now really be in the muck. Because while there are a number of players in Tiers 4-6 that I could see as returning top-five value at third base, I’m not exactly keen to trust any of them.

Hence, passing on Ramírez is going to feel a lot like you’re taking a punt and a prayer strategy for covering the hot corner. So, even though I’d rather not pick first in 2022, I’ll happily stan for him at number-one overall. Or does that mean that the number-one pick stans for me? My old brain gets so confused by modern slang that I honestly don’t even know. More importantly…Are we even making Stans anymore? (*hint*- not really)

Tier Two

This tier has two of the safest floors available outside of the first round but the ceiling of Rafael Devers gives him the edge over Manny Machado. Devers, who somehow doesn’t turn 26 until next October, posted career-highs with a .394 xwOBA and .479 xwOBA (on contact) that were both in the top-6% of baseball and that were up considerably from a .328 xwOBA and .425 xwOBAcon in 2020.

Those gains didn’t come from weak exit-velocities, either, as Devers set new highs with a 15.0% Brl% that was up from an 11.5% Brl% in 2020 and a 51.1% Air% (100+ mph) that was up from 39.5%. Coming in just under 40 HR seems likely but given his upper-EV increases and age, no one should be surprised if he were to bust loose and blow past that threshold.

Tier Three*

Austin Riley stands alone in the third tier due to the Mondesi Paradox and is one of the better examples of how the scarcity at third base is greatly driving draft prices. Riley has a 50 ADP over this most recent sampling of NFBC drafts and that lines up with about where I think he deserves to go. Whoever grabbed him at a 77 max pick is probably very happy but what about that 28 minimum pick? Or the 26 minimum pick from the drafts in the two-week period before that?

People aren’t reaching into the top-30 to grab Riley solely because of his likely production – they’re also doing it after looking down the line and seeing the guessing game that awaits them at the position post-Riley. And while he’s not a player I want to reach on, I also get it. Four-category production on a good-to-great offense, with locked-in playing time and a middle-of-the-order spot starts looking even shinier when faced with alternative team-builds that might need to instead rely on the likes of Alex Bregman or Yoán Moncada.

Tier Monde-Three

The cousin of the deGreat deGrom deSpute of 2022, the Mondesi Question for me is mostly wrapped around risk. But you need to know the possible juice before trying to decide if you’re willing to risk the squeeze of someone drafted as high as #35 and low as #100. So, how much Adalberto do you really need?

I have him projected for 116 games and 466 PA but also believe that anyone who thinks they know with certainty how many games Mondesi will play, is certainly a little nuts. But at those levels (where hypothetical injuries cost him 1-2 months), I have him valued right above the players in the tier below but still significantly behind Austin Riley in the one above. But here’s the thing; I think it’s more likely that Mondesi either plays a great deal more or a great deal less than the middle-of-the-road that I’m projecting.

That’s why drafting Mondesi, for me, is much more about risk acceptance than it is about the actual values on the page. If he plays 145 games, he’ll be a top-30 player overall and likely give you categorical dominance at SB. And if he plays 50 games, his overall value will be around the same as Joey Wendle. But players are often injury-prone right up until the season that they aren’t, so I won’t be assuming that the latter situation has a distinctive edge when future-casting how many games he’ll end up playing.

The problem is, is that even if those 50 games return enough stolen base goodness to make him valuable, you’re likely not going to be able to just park him on your bench unless you have IL spots. That’s why I like Mondesi a lot more in a draft-and-hold (with deep benches and no free-agent pickups) format than I do in leagues with regular-sized benches because it allows you to hedge your risks more directly. With only a 4-to-5 man bench, it’s hard to draft with an eye on having a ready-made Mondesi backup by over-drafting starter-level bats.  The bench is just too short it’ll be difficult to get as much pitching as you need. But with deeper benches, I’m more comfortable overloading on offense with the thought that if Mondesi goes down he’ll be being replaced by a much higher level of bat than you’d typically find on the wire.

Tier Four

A lot of similar profiles here but also a fair amount of risk given their current draft prices. But while drafters seem to favor Alex Bregman more for a bounceback, I’d much rather have Anthony Rendon 2-3 rounds later. Not that I’m expecting a return to prime form but do we really think Rendon will quietly fade to just an above-average fantasy scrub? Because if you punch in the settings for the average 12-team league into the FanGraphs auction calculator, that’s what projections are valuing him as.

In a 12-team league with an MI, CI, and five outfielders, Steamer projects Rendon as the #15 3B (#110 overall hitter), while ATC, BAT, and BATx have him between #9 and #11 at the position (#78 – #103 overall). I’m more bullish on his counting stats but that is more about projected PAs than it is about differing rates. The only place I truly quibble with is his batting average, as the projections we carry on site all have Rendon in the low-.270s, while I’m at a .282 AVG that I worry might be conservative.

Perhaps I’m banking too much on history but whether in college or the pros, Rendon tends to always bring his hit stick. And he might have dipped to just a .240 AVG in a 2021 season ended early by a hip injury but that was over just 249 PA and came with a .267 BABIP (career .312 BABIP).

 

Tier Five

I have Jeimer Candelario topping this tier by a significant margin but since my cande-loveio for Jeimer has already been established, let’s have a word on Ke’Bryan Hayes, who I do like even though my values are still seemingly out of step with his current ADP. But the real question with Hayes is do you believe the 24 games from 2020 or the 96 games from 2021?

It’s easy to discount his disappointing 2021 campaign considering that he hurt his wrist in the third game of the season, which made him miss two months and caused lingering issues all season. Though, he did come back in June and slash .273/.350/.409 before his line dropped more precipitously in the second half.

But injury or not, this isn’t a pretty sight:

It would be easier to chalk up a bad year to injury if Hayes had a bigger track record. And while his 24-game flare-up (5 HR in 95 PA,.376/.442/.682)  in 2020 was exceptional, let’s also keep in mind that it was very unexpected, as his prospect profile always said his glove would get him to the majors far faster than his bat would.

And that 24-game outburst wasn’t backed by the high-end exit velocities that speak to that level of power continuing, with a 9.2 % Brl% that would’ve finished in the 60th percentile if qualified. Not bad but also not top-end. And not sustainable, going by the dips he suffered in 2021, even if you want to pin all of that on the wrist. Hayes ran a 5.1% Brl% that was in the bottom quartile, with a 30.3% Air% (100+ mph) in the 53rd percentile and down from 41.9%, with a 93.5 mph EV (FB+LD) that was down two ticks from 2020.

But while I don’t love his current ADP, I’ll be happy to pay the price in drafts where he falls because of some of the same compiler attributes that draw me to Candelario. Hayes has a slick (slick!) glove that’ll give the generally hapless Pirates few reasons to ever not run him out there whenever he’s healthy. And while the Pittsburgh lineup will stink about as much as PNC Park does for hitters, Hayes will be locked into the top of it. Even if the production is average, 150 games and 600+ PAs doesn’t grow on trees.

Tier Six

All three are reasonable candidates for a big bounceback in 2022 but all three would also give me serious fantasy palpitations if forced to rely on said bounceback. Based solely on his situation, Yoán Moncada is probably the safest bet, as just the inertia from batting near the top of what should again be an excellent offense will be enough to compile above-average R+RBI. And even though his batting average returns will be average, it’ll still live far away from the batting average sinks that are Matt Chapman and Eugenio Suárez.

I don’t have a lot of hope for Chapman’s batting average coming back to what we saw in 2018-2019 but am banking on a return to power rates closer to 2019 (0.54 HR per PA) and 2020 (.066 HR/PA). He hit 27 HR in 622 PA (.043 HR/PA) but was far more prolific in the second half (16 HR, .063 HR/PA) than he was in the first (11 HR, .030 HR/PA).

His home run rate may have spiked in the second half but Chapman had the EV receipts to back that rate up. His 18.3% Brl% in the second half was up from 11.0% in the first half, while a 17.1% Brl% (100+ mph) was up from 9.0%. And those look a lot like the 18.0% Brl% and 18.0% Brl% (100+ mph) he ran in 2020. Call me big Matty when you back that rate up, back that rate up.

Tier Seven

Admit it; even though he’s been a part of our fantasy lives for damn near a decade, you didn’t realize Jonathan Villar was only 30-years-old. Well, he is and Villar keeps doing the same things that have kept him on our fantasy radar for so long: hitting bongs and stealing bags, all day long.

Currently, a free agent, Villar’s draftability will be limited if he signs on with a team as a non-starter. But if a substandard team decides to sign him as part of a rebuilding stopgap, then Villar’s value could skyrocket. What, you’re telling me that Colorado couldn’t use a cheap starting infielder? Does anyone remember C.J. Cron’s draft price pre- and post-signing in 2021? Because it was about 200 picks.

Tier Eight

If you missed what Jose Miranda did in the minors over two levels in 2021, it’s worth revisiting. Miranda put up nearly identical lines over 47 games at Double-A and 80 games at Triple-A, slashing a combined .344/.401/.572 over 591 PA, hitting 30 HR, and posting a .421 wOBA and 158 wRC+.

But like many minor-leaguers, I question the playing time more than the bat but am more bullish, however, because of a belief that when (if?) a new CBA is completed, the incentives to manipulate service-time will have been neutered somewhat, if not completely. That, along with thinking playing time in Minnesota could increase following their seemingly inevitable summer sell-off, makes me hopeful that Miranda will ultimately find his way to 400+ PA and the fantasy relevance those PAs would bring.

Tier Nine

Stay clear! Go back! Nothing good lays this way for fantasy players, just misery and damnation. Okay, so maybe not damnation but I’d still be cursing into the maw of eternity if forced to rely on Cavan Biggio for any sort of production.

Biggio seemed a budding fantasy star after 2019-2020 saw him slash .240/.368/.430 over his first 159 games and 695 PA, with 24 HR and 20 SB. He was supposed to provide a little power, a little speed, and a lot of runs, batting at the top of Toronto’s rising offense. But then he provided little to nothing everywhere in 2021, missing time with injury but was also banished to the bottom of the order when playing.

I don’t think this is a “just one bad year” situation given the warning signs that his 2020 expected stats were flashing. Biggio had a .355 wOBA in 2020 that was backed by a .313 xwOBA and his .396 wOBA on contact had a .327 xwOBAcon behind it. Should a .298 wOBA and .349 wOBAcon in 2021 really be that surprising?

Well, at least Biggio’s glove is good enough to keep him on the field, even if his stick doesn’t necessarily justify it. I mean, he’s definitely a better fielder than Maikel Franco and J.D. Davis, right?… Right?