NFBC Main Event Draft Report

It is often said by those who practice the exalted art and science of oral advocacy in appellate courts that, in any given legal case, there are three oral arguments: the one you plan to give, the one you actually give, and the one you wish you’d given. And so it is with the even more exalted art and science of Fantasy Baseball drafting.

We rediscovered this wisdom last week, as we and some two dozen other similarly soigné gentlemen foregathered in Manhattan for a live draft in our NFBC Main Event League: 15 teams, 30 rounds, standard Rotisserie lineups, twice-weekly lineup substitutions for hitters (weekly for pitchers), plain-vanilla 5×5 categories. We were drafting in fourth position. The ultimate hope: triumph not only in this league, but in the overall Main Event competition, encompassing 30 leagues and 450 teams.

But first: The concept of this blog, as we’d sort of forgotten, isn’t the dispensation of high-end sabermetric analysis or premium drafting advice, neither of which we’re competent to offer. Rather, it’s to portray the effort of two formerly-casual-verging-on-clueless players to grasp the ultimate Fantasy palm of victory. And a good draft is essential to that effort.

Of course, a description of a Fantasy draft in any detail is about as compelling as watching paint dry. But—like you with your own Fantasy drafts—we are trying to do more than paint by the numbers. Instead, we are aspiring artists, attempting a masterpiece, seeking inspiration, botching some parts, desperately improvising others, but always trying to create an organic whole, evoking, if we’re lucky, the ecstasy and exaltation of the sublime, and if we’re not, the pity and terror of tragedy. So the paint you’re watching dry is drying on a canvas, and you’re art critics. Join us, then, as we explain what we did and why we did it. We invite your responsive theories, reflections, gasps and sneers.

First of all, here’s our Opening-Day lineup:

C Russell Martin
C Yasmani Grandal
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Martin Prado
3B: Nolan Arenado
SS: Alcides Escobar
CI: Carlos Santana
MI: Jose Ramirez
OF: Billy Hamilton
OF: Brandon Moss
OF: Melky Cabrera
OF: Travis Snider
OF: Gregor Blanco
UT: Alex Rodriguez
P: Alex Wood
P: Gio Gonzalez
P: Ian Kennedy
P: Drew Hutchison
P: Dallas Keuchel
P: Mike Leake
P: Aroldis Chapman
P: Steve Cishek
P: Ken Giles

BN: Seth Smith
BN: Ender Inciarte
BN: DJ LeMahieu
BN: Jake Smolinski
BN: Chase Anderson
BN: Trevor Cahill
BN: Pat Neshek

Here were the insights—or, if you prefer, ignes fatui—that illuminated our approach to the draft:

–In our draft position, we would have to overpay at some point for speed. We learned this bitter lesson over the course of 40 or 50 (mostly aborted) mock drafts on FantasyPros. We were happy to be drafting fourth, but that meant our next picks were 27 and 34, then 57 and 64, and so on. No matter when we started chasing speed in that sequence, we came up short if we didn’t start drafting fast guys before we should have.

–We were willing to wait for starting pitchers. This was the approach we took in January in our NFBC slow draft, where we waited until the 9th round to draft a starter. Contemplating the results of that draft, even after injury-related attrition, we were satisfied: Ryu, Keuchel, Stroman, Kennedy, Walker, Hendricks, House, Chase Anderson, plus a few supernumeraries. We decided to adopt approximately the same strategy. We might not get the same pitchers (though as it turned out, we did, pretty much), and of course if we’re wrong about these particular pitchers, we’re done for, but that’s true of any unconventional strategy.

–We’d pay extra for elite closers if we had to. Another thing we found in our mock drafts, which were based on NFBC Average Draft Position, was that the very best closers (Chapman, Kimbrel, Holland) were going in the 22 spots between our third-round draft position and our fourth-round position. Our plan was to see what happened when we reached our turn in the third round, and if the run on closers had begun, we’d join it. Otherwise, we’d take our chances and wait.

–We wouldn’t chase speed in the first round. The obvious guy to take would have been Carlos Gomez (NFBC ADP 7, which is where he wound up going in our league). But could we really resist Stanton, Goldschmidt, or Abreu, at least one of whom we were going to be able to get? No, we couldn’t. Stanton went second, and, intoxicated by Abreu’s astonishing Spring Training and, perhaps, looking to diversify our portfolio (we got Goldschmidt in our NFBC slow draft), we went with Abreu.

–We would chase speed in the second round. This was our most important decision, and if it was a bad one, we’re toast. We’re not crazy about Billy Hamilton. He had a horrible September, suggesting that the rest of the league has figured him out, and it’s easy to envision him hitting .190, batting seventh or getting benched, and turning into a pumpkin. But he’s once again leading off for the Reds, he should be on the upside of his career, and (at least for the nonce) has the same manager that let him attempt 79 steals last year. Plus which, Fantasy God Mike Podhorzer took Hamilton with the 20th overall pick in the LABR Draft in February, and his cogent explanation in Fangraphs for doing so persuaded us.

So here’s how the first half (roughly) of the draft went, with NFBC ADPs (in live drafts since March 1st) in parentheses:

4. Jose Abreu (6).

27. Billy Hamilton (48). We took him earlier than anyone else in the NFBC Main Event.

34. Nolan Arenado (42). No closers had yet been taken, so we decided to wait. We weren’t shopping for steals. Adrian Beltre was still available, as were Adrian Gonzalez and Freddie Freeman. But we prefer Arenado to all of them: he’s a beast in Coors, and if he’s healthy for a full season, as he wasn’t last year, he will (we predict) outhit all three. Numerous prognosticators tab Arenado as a breakout candidate (although to us he has already broken) and a potential batting crown winner. From 2013 to 2014 he increased his slash line everywhere and against everyone – lefties, righties, home and away. For a young player to do that is really impressive. His hard contact rate was 27% above league average. The upside is huge. The downside? 81 games at Coors and his .928 OPS and 16 HRs in 250 ABs.

57. Aroldis Chapman (38). Closers, as we were to find out, went late in this league. We don’t know why, but we’re grateful for this gift.

64. Carlos Santana (76). In the sixth round, we insist, he’s a bargain, as well as insurance (with his 1b/3b eligibility) against the small possibility of a collapse by Arenado. Choose your fashionable, formerly esoteric stat: Flyball distance? In 2014, his was an elite 290 feet, which makes him a legitimate power hitter playing in a home run-friendly park. xBABIP? His 2014 was very unlucky. Hard contact? His HC rate was 17% above league average. Second-half improvement? He was feebleness itself through the end of May last season, then came around encouragingly.

87. Alex Wood (101). Why we were so ready to deviate from our plan and take a starter, even a very good one, two or three rounds earlier than we’d planned to, and a round earlier than his ADP? We have been asking ourselves that very question. As best we can reconstruct it, we found that all the position players we wanted with this pick were gone, and didn’t really think about position players we might have targeted after this round, or about how quickly outfielders were getting chosen. We instead asked ourselves whether there were any starters available whom we’d planned to bypass, and who might produce second- or third-round value. Wood was the answer.

94. Steve Cishek (102). In our book, he’s an elite closer, right behind the Chapman/Kimbrel/Holland troika, and we were happy to have him with this pick.

117. Gio Gonzalez (115). More or less what we’d planned on doing, pitcher-wise, except we already had Wood. Gonzalez struck out over a hitter an inning, had a very low Opponents’ OPS of .647, and has, according to Fangraphs, the 16th best arsenal in baseball. And he gets to face the Phillies and Braves. A lot. And not the Nationals. Ever.

124. Brandon Moss (144). Duda, LaRoche, and a couple of other potential-25-home-run guys were still available, but after watching Moss this spring, we love him in Cleveland’s ballpark in the middle of Cleveland’s lineup, and like that he qualifies as an outfielder. We think his 18 HRs in 260 AB in the first half of 2014 better indicates his ability than than the 3 HRs in 218 AB of his injury-riddled second half.

147. Alcides Escobar (177). He’s a middle infielder who will once again lead off for a good team that likes to steal bases and will accordingly once again steal 30 of them. We don’t think we drafted him two rounds too early.

154. Melky Cabrera (159). We were short on outfielders, and why not? He’s exceptionally consistent, he makes lots of hard contact, and there are worse places to hit than in front of Jose Abreu. We already had plenty of power, and liked his high BA….

177. Russell Martin (166). Which somewhat offsets this guy’s low BA. Martin’s still a bargain, we think. He will hit 15 home runs, and, batting second in the Toronto lineup, will, we predict, score more runs than any other catcher. He will even steal you a few bases.

184. Ian Kennedy (152). We’re not complaining. Why was he available in the 13th round? He gets over a strikeout an inning, calls Petco home, has the 25th best arsenal in MLB, including an improving “knuckle curve,” is a flyball pitcher who gives up less than one home run every 9 innings, and is pretty much a lock for 200 innings.

207. Yasmani Grandal (195). We attribute his weak first half in 2014 to his recovery from knee surgery, and prefer to concentrate on his very acceptable (.800 OPS) second half. Most forecasts say he’ll hit about .240 with 10 to 15 home runs, but we see 20 HR as a realistic upside. His step up to a 38% flyball rate and the move to Dodger Stadium from Petco signal a breakout. Beyond him—except for Mike Zunino, whom we’d have been almost as happy to have—we saw among the catchers only replacement-level hitters, and that’s Grandal’s absolute downside.

214. Drew Hutchison (214). A popular “sleeper” who should be good for a strikeout and inning and perhaps an improved ERA. He was inconsistent in 2014, but had some magnificent starts, and if he’s figured out how to pitch to lefties he will be a top 20 starter.

237. Martin Prado (219). Meet our second baseman: useful batting average and generally reliable skills, batting fifth in a loaded lineup.

244. Dallas Keuchel (218). People don’t like him because he doesn’t miss many bats, but so what? He also doesn’t walk many hitters, is a ground ball machine, and rated fourth among MLB starters last year in (this is our favorite new stat category) in inducing weak contact on batted balls.

This gets us through 17 rounds. We had speed, home runs, strikeouts, five starting pitchers we were thrilled with, two excellent closers, two good catchers, a fully-staffed corner infield with very good power, and an acceptable if uninspiring middle infield. What we realized, as Carlos Beltran, whom we like, got taken with the 260th pick, was that (a) we still needed outfielders, and (b) there weren’t any more we especially liked. We rued not taking J.D. Martinez or Ryan Zimmerman, who got taken right after we took Wood in the sixth round. Nothing to do about that now, though. Join us next time for our response to the problem and our rationale, or rationalization, for that response.