NFBC FAAB Breakdown & Week 17 Estimates
Finally. I have combed through all the NFBC Main Event FAAB bids, linked them to past CBS ownership rates, and I’m able to provide some interesting facts on the FAAB bidding process. Besides the overall FAAB breakdown, I have this week’s estimated FAAB bids.
I’d like to again thank NFBC’s Greg Ambrosius for providing the information on some missing weeks. There is no way this project could have moved forward without his help.
1. Overall Spending Rate
With the complete dataset, the ideal versus actual spending rates can be calculated.
For the ideal spending rate, the FAAB must be divided up into 27 weekly units. The overall $1000 FAAB dollars shouldn’t be spent evenly as the dollars spent earlier on will have more of an impact over the season. Here is the tablen and chart of the ideal and average amounts left for each team (510 total teams).
| Week | Weekly Units | Percent of FAAB | Ideal Weekly Amount | Ideal Amount Left | Actual Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 7.1% | $71 | $928 | $994 |
| 2 | 26 | 6.9% | $69 | $859 | $942 |
| 3 | 25 | 6.6% | $66 | $793 | $879 |
| 4 | 24 | 6.3% | $63 | $730 | $812 |
| 5 | 23 | 6.1% | $61 | $669 | $756 |
| 6 | 22 | 5.8% | $58 | $611 | $707 |
| 7 | 21 | 5.6% | $56 | $555 | $612 |
| 8 | 20 | 5.3% | $53 | $502 | $552 |
| 9 | 19 | 5.0% | $50 | $452 | $482 |
| 10 | 18 | 4.8% | $48 | $404 | $412 |
| 11 | 17 | 4.5% | $45 | $359 | $374 |
| 12 | 16 | 4.2% | $42 | $317 | $330 |
| 13 | 15 | 4.0% | $40 | $277 | $301 |
| 14 | 14 | 3.7% | $37 | $240 | $273 |
| 15 | 13 | 3.4% | $34 | $206 | $250 |
| 16 | 12 | 3.2% | $32 | $174 | $218 |
| 17 | 11 | 2.9% | $29 | $145 | $204 |
| 18 | 10 | 2.6% | $26 | $119 | |
| 19 | 9 | 2.4% | $24 | $95 | |
| 20 | 8 | 2.1% | $21 | $74 | |
| 21 | 7 | 1.9% | $19 | $55 | |
| 22 | 6 | 1.6% | $16 | $39 | |
| 23 | 5 | 1.3% | $13 | $26 | |
| 24 | 4 | 1.1% | $11 | $15 | |
| 25 | 3 | 0.8% | $8 | $7 | |
| 26 | 2 | 0.5% | $5 | $2 | |
| 27 | 1 | 0.3% | $3 | $0 | |
| Total = | 378 | Total = | $1,000 |
Some points of interest.
- In an ideal world, owners should look to smartly spend half their FAAB by the end of the May. One-time major buys (e.g. Juan Soto or Hunter Strickland) could force an owner quickly over their amount.
- Besides a narrowing around weeks nine to 12, teams have an extra $50 more than the ideal amount.
- The ideal FAAB drop is for an ideal world but I could see owners wanting more than $7 to use over the last couple weeks. Instead, they may only work with a $950 initial budget to keep their end-of-season options open.
- Teams didn’t spend much in the one and only pre-season FAAB run. This anomaly may be occurring because the drafts were close to the season’s start. Other leagues may see more spent this week depending on how early their draft took place.
2. Low Bid Trends
In the first couple of weeks, teams seem to be a little timid with their bids and some players can be owned on the cheap.
| Week | % of $1 Winning Bids | % of Bids Win Under $10 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14% | 51% |
| 2 | 8% | 37% |
| 3 | 6% | 29% |
| 4 | 6% | 28% |
| 5 | 8% | 29% |
| 6 | 8% | 30% |
| 7 | 9% | 28% |
| 8 | 9% | 32% |
| 9 | 8% | 32% |
| 10 | 9% | 33% |
| 11 | 11% | 42% |
| 12 | 13% | 43% |
| 13 | 13% | 46% |
| 14 | 15% | 54% |
| 15 | 18% | 53% |
| 16 | 21% | 62% |
| 17 | 22% | 71% |
Week 1’s $1-win percentage (14%) is not matched until week 14. After taking the first couple of weeks off, owners then begin to empty their wallets.
3. Winning the Close Bids
Owners hate to lose out on players but don’t want to spend too much especially for an injury or short-term replacement. By winning the bid by a $1 or two is ideal. By knowing which final integer other owners prefer, savvy owners can bid a dollar or two more. For this year, here are the final values for double-digit bids.
| Last Integer | Used Amount |
|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4% |
| 1 | 13.3% |
| 2 | 11.4% |
| 3 | 11.0% |
| 4 | 8.4% |
| 5 | 9.8% |
| 6 | 7.7% |
| 7 | 12.7% |
| 8 | 8.8% |
| 9 | 10.6% |
The smallest percentages are the values owners should focus on. These are the values owners are less likely to use.
For example, an owner values a player in the upper teens. He may take a chance bidding $16 but if he wants a better chance, he needs to move the bid to $20. I find it interesting owners use the round tens number fewer than any other one. Right now, the ideal ending numbers seem to be 0, 4, and 6.
4. Week 18 Bid Estimates
And now it’s time for the approximate bids for some of the players on the move using CBS ownership rates. For now, I’m using three separate formulas to value starters, relievers, and hitters. One additional variant to consider is that undrafted prospects cannot be rostered in NFBC leagues until a player is promoted. Since there is no way to speculate on these players, they have a 50% premium over other hitters. In leagues where Willie Calhoun was not drafted, he’s likely to go for ~$100 this week.
Here are some other bids and let me know if the comments for other players. I used CBS’s most added players and for those in deeper leagues, I included the lowest owned.
| Name | Week 16 Ownership | Week 17 Ownership | Ownership Jump | Estimated FAAB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| German Marquez SP | 34% | 50% | 16% | $50 |
| Kirby Yates RP | 18% | 43% | 25% | $125 |
| Anibal Sanchez SP | 49% | 63% | 14% | $58 |
| Jesse Winker RF | 38% | 54% | 16% | $101 |
| Jake Bauers LF | 47% | 56% | 9% | $91 |
| Stephen Piscotty RF | 44% | 57% | 13% | $100 |
| Austin Hedges C | 21% | 32% | 11% | $63 |
| Jon Gray SP | 73% | 83% | 10% | $69 |
| Lou Trivino RP | 27% | 37% | 10% | $76 |
| Carlos Gonzalez RF | 55% | 64% | 9% | $102 |
| Elias Diaz C | 28% | 37% | 9% | $66 |
| Collin McHugh SP | 26% | 29% | 3% | $19 |
| Jordan Hicks SP | 23% | 27% | 4% | $18 |
| Kole Calhoun RF | 22% | 27% | 5% | $45 |
| Ryan Yarbrough SP | 22% | 26% | 4% | $18 |
| Dan Straily SP | 19% | 22% | 3% | $13 |
| Adalberto Mondesi 2B | 14% | 18% | 4% | $31 |
| Pedro Strop RP | 5% | 11% | 6% | $30 |
| Omar Narvaez C | 4% | 8% | 4% | $18 |
| Jake Cave CF | 4% | 7% | 3% | $15 |
These bids are for a 15-team mixed league. Owner will likely need to create an adjustment for their own league depending on teams, bench, and the player pool.
That’s enough FAAB for now. I have some additional possible studies but many relate to the pre and in-season valuation comparisons.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
If I recall correctly, the Estimated FAAB bid has a 60% envelope on each side, so that, e.g., the $50 bid for German Marquez means that he could go from $20 to $80 with 95% confidence. The more certain you want to be to get him, the more you need to fudge on the high side. Do I have that right?
Would love to hear Jeff’s thoughts on this, but that’s my interpretation as well — although I doubt Jeff would confidently say that forms a 95% confidence interval, as this work is, in my estimation, meant to be more directional / rough-order-of-magnitude.
Very interesting stuff, Jeff!
Sorry for the delay. The values were around a 72% envelope for the season. It keeps getting higher as the season goes on.
The one issue I’m trying to correct is adjusting for the amount of FAAB left in the league. In one league, the average team has spent $879 and another it is at $721.
Looking at the historical differences would be time-consuming while I might come up with a theoretical adjustment.