New Everyday Players — Sep 12, 2023

It’s another edition of our dive into new everyday players!

Kevin Smith | OAK SS/3B

RosterResource would have you believe that Smith is just another Athletics bench bat. However, he has started five straight games, and although three of those were against left-handed starters, two of them were against right-handers. It seems pretty clear to me that he’s suddenly an everyday guy, starting mostly at third base, with one recent start at shortstop. And why not? Even though he’s already 27 years old, he has shown some serious power in the minors and the Athletics should really see what they have here.

Smith has gotten chances in the past, but the team has not been patient, as he has continued to shuffle between Triple-A and the Majors. But this year in Triple-A, he posted and absurd 35.6% HR/FB rate and .329 ISO. He knocked 16 homers in just 170 at-bats, so you would think the last place A’s would want to find out if that power surge is any bit real.

Of course, contact has been an issue, as he has consistently posted mid-teen SwStk% marks and some strikeout rates above 30%. Over about a half an MLB season, he sports a career 16% SwStk%, driving a 31.1% strikeout rate. That would be palatable if his monstrous Triple-A power this year carried over. But so far, it hasn’t, as he’s sitting with just a .157 ISO.

He does steal bases too, as he swiped nine at Triple-A this year, but has just one with the Athletics. So the upside is there to deliver both above average power and some steals. In deep leagues, he’s exactly the type I want to gamble on over the final weeks of the season.

Jurickson Profar | SD OF

After getting released by the Rockies toward the end of August, Profar signed with the Padres less than a week later, and then was recalled from the minors a week after that. And now suddenly, it appears he has a starting job! He has now started three straight, between first base and right field, which is odd, but deep leaguers might as well take advantage.

As I’m sure many of you felt, I was very interested in Profar in his first season with the Rockies. The home park offensive surge we expected never came, so it’s hard to be too excited about him moving to a far more pitcher friendly park, and one he called home the previous three seasons.

That said, the plate discipline is good, which gives him significantly more value in OBP leagues, thanks to an above average walk rate, but below average BABIP. He’s shown more power in the past and isn’t at an age where we expect his power to disappear. Hitting fly balls isn’t a problem. His steals have dried up for some reason, as he stole just one base this year, but the Padres might be more willing to let him run than the Rockies.

Overall, he’s as boring as it gets. But in a deep league, if you need someone, anyone, who will get at-bats and isn’t hitting last in the order, then you could do worse than Profar.

Taylor Walls | TB SS

After missing about a month and a half due to injury, Walls has returned to a team that is now without their starting shortstop. Since his return, he has started the majority of games at the position, with the occasional rest as the Rays love to shuffle their lineup.

After some putrid offense last year, it’s pretty incredible the team has given him 300 PAs this year, especially considering his improvement has still fallen short of even a .300 wOBA. They must love his defense and ability to play multiple positions, because it’s certainly not his offense keeping him in the lineup!

That said, you probably don’t play in a league that directly counts wOBA, so you care way more about his speed. He swiped just 10 bases last year, but is already at more than double that number in just under two-thirds of the plate appearances. Oh, and he’s been caught stealing just once, so he’s not going to stop running due to ineffectiveness.

Along with the speed, he’s actually not a zero in power. While his maxEV is embarrassing, he has still managed a high single digit HR/FB rate and seven homers. All in all, he has posted a full season pace of around 14 homers and 44 steals. Now that’s a fantasy star!

OBP leaguers should really take note here. His consistent double digit walk rate, combined with his below average BABIP, gives him a massive boost in value in those formats. Heck, his career OBP is a full .100 points above his batting average!

He’s a nice pickup in deep leagues, particularly if yours uses OBP.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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dodgerbleu
1 year ago

Oakland seemed absurdly patient to me. Smith was handed the job this year and was removed after 66 PA with a 1.5%BB, 34.8%K and 40 wRC+. That may not sound patient, but this is after they gave him the job twice last year and he was removed after 151 PA of a 47 wRC+.

At a certain point, what’s he’s doing in the majors didn’t warrant being in the majors. Even on a minor league team like the A’s, there is a line of being impatient vs. playing someone in spite of it hurting their development. Kevin Smith struck out over 30% of the time and had a 90 wRC+ in the minors for the As last year in 370 PAs.

They’ve given him 273 major league PAs.

The success touted has come over 183 PAs in AAA this year.

They’ve given him more opportunities in the majors than PAs he’s been good for in the minors. This year in 122 major league PAs he’s striking out 35.2% of the time. His monstrous ISO amounts to a 137 wRC+ in the minors in an offensive environment. Not a single projection system projects over 77 wRC+ for him. I feel like Oakland should get a pass on any mishandling here. Kevin Smith is not good at baseball and that’s not their fault.

airforce21one
1 year ago
Reply to  dodgerbleu

273 at bats is “absurdly” patient?

dodgerbleu
1 year ago
Reply to  airforce21one

In this context – a player is clearly not MLB ready IMO – sure. Leaving Gunnar Henderson in to work through his struggles wasn’t absurdly patient. Kevin Smith was. Just development for me, I think the team and player come out ahead how it was handled this year.

In 2022 in AAA, Smith paired a 30%+ K rate with a .360 BABIP to put up an inflated 90 wRC+.. That was the highest yearly BABIP he’d ever posted, and 27 points higher than any stop he’d even made except a 42 game sample in single A in 2018,

He played full time until June 10th and it was getting worse, not better. He had a 39 wRC+ from May 1 on. Over his last 30 days and 82 PA, he had a 20 wRC+

The last month fee patient to a fault or his detriment. Couldn’t have been best for his development, I think this year proves that. Sure, Oakland lacked for options, but they were going to be terrible anyways, and Smith has a chance to not be terrible.

In 2023, they gave him just over a month, and after 82 PA and a 41 wRC+ with a 2,4% BB rate and gross 36.6% K rate, they sent him down to work on his development. It was needed, whatever in the world they did with him.. Watch some film, get in the cage, take some pressure off, see a bunch of whatever pitches are eating him, build come confidence, make necessary adjustments and come back a new man.

When something is clearly not working, don’t force it. I’m in on Smith when he comes back up, FWIW, but a lot of that is due to how he’s been handled this year, I just wish they would’ve done it last year.