New Everyday Players — Sep 11, 2023

With only three more weeks to go of the regular season, playing time remains king for fantasy owners. You can’t afford to be losing out on at-bats, so paying attention to playing time situations is extremely important. Let’s discuss three guys finding themselves as new everyday players.

Jordan Lawlar | ARI SS

The team’s top ranked prospect and fifth best overall got the call last Thursday and figures to take over as the starting shortstop, as he had started three straight until yesterday due to a hand injury. With 55/60 Raw Power and 60/60 Speed grades, he could be that exciting power/speed combo contributor fantasy owners love. Oh, and with 55/60 Field grades as well, his glove will likely keep him in the lineup, so we don’t have to worry as much about a slump getting him benched.

The 20-year-old was promoted after just 80 Triple-A PAs, but with a .448 wOBA posted during that small sample size and the team fighting for a playoff spot, it’s clear they think he’s ready to help the Major League club. Lawlar has shown excellent power in the minors, though his HR/FB rate has bounced between 10.3% and 27.8%, which is a pretty big range. He only posted a 15% HR/FB rate at Double-A this year, but an ISO of .211. So perhaps as suggested by his scouting grades, his raw power hasn’t yet fully translated into game power, which might mean in the short-term that he’ll produce good, but not great results in that department.

The good news is he’s a willing basestealer, as he swiped 36 bases between Double-A and Triple-A this year, after 39 bases last year. So right now, he looks like an even better stolen base contributor with power that’s likely still developing given his young age.

With power upside and speed already a given, he’s yet another exciting prospect that has ultimate 15/30 upside. With consistent double digit walk rates in the minors, his value might even get a nice boost in OBP leagues. He’s a worthy pickup in all league sizes, assuming his hand injury doesn’t force him to the IL.

Joey Bart | SF C

The former top prospect was previously blocked by Buster Posey, but now that Bart has gotten his chance, he hasn’t been able to take advantage of it offensively. This year, he had the starting job to himself, but it took just a month and a half of poor offense for the Giants to lose patience and demote him to Triple-A. He’s now back after Patrick Bailey hit the IL and has started all three games since his recall.

Bart’s prospect status was originally driven by 60/60 Raw Power, plus 55/55 Field grades. So a catcher with big power upside, but that could also play defense, so the risk of having to move to first base didn’t seem to exist. That power, though, hasn’t been there. He has posted just an 11.1% HR/FB rate in about a full season’s worth of MLB PAs, at least for a catcher, and a microscopic .116 ISO. It’s odd because his maxEV sits at an elite 114.3 MPH, which suggests much higher power output. It doesn’t even appear to be a park thing either, as his career ISO at home is significantly higher than on the road, though both marks are well below expectations.

Strikeouts have been a major issue so far, as his MLB strikeout rate sits at 35.3% and he’s walked just 6.4% of the time. So even with a .332 BABIP, which seems more fortunate than driven by skills given his batted ball profile, his career OBP sits at just .289.

At Triple-A this year, his power was down from previous minor league seasons, with just a .152 ISO and 128.% HR/FB rate, which isn’t very encouraging. He did cut down on his swings and misses, but his strikeout rate still sat at 28.1%.

We’ve seen many examples of catchers never realizing their offensive potential and often times that realization happens later in their careers. So they don’t usually follow the same path as non-catchers and that may happen here. I still like the power upside here, but it’s still just potential, and there are other flaws he needs to address before he becomes a useful fantasy catcher.

Evan Carter | TEX OF

The Rangers second best prospect and 32nd overall, Carter was recalled last Friday and has started two of three games, getting benched against a left-handed starter. That means he might be in a strong side platoon role as the team battles for a playoff spot.

With 45/50 Raw Power and 60/60 Speed grades, it looks like we may have another power/speed combo contributor. The power here doesn’t look as good as for Lawlar, as Carter has managed just a 10% HR/FB rate at High-A in 2022, followed by a 12.2% mark this year at Double-A. He recorded just 39 PAs at Triple-A this season before his promotion, so prospects continue to get recalled with limited Triple-A experience.

Like Lawlar, his speed looks like it’ll result in better stolen base contributions in the near-term. He stole 28 bases in 2022 and 25 so far in the minors this year. Again, this isn’t quite as good as Lawlar, so Carter seems like a slightly weaker fantasy contributor in these two categories so far. Lawlar has also been far more successful at stealing bases than Carter, so that could cut into Carter’s attempts if the team decides not to allow him to run wild.

What’s really intriguing here is Carter’s plate patience. He has walked at big rates during his large sample stints, including a massive 16% mark at Double-A this year. That’s paired with reasonable to low SwStk% marks and a strikeout rate that peaked at an acceptable 22.3% this year. That kind of plate discipline suggests he won’t embarrass himself in the Majors, despite the limit experience at the highest minor league level. It also potential gives him a nice value boost in OBP leagues.

Carter is clearly worth pursuing in the majority of league formats and sizes, and even more aggressively in OBP leagues. I’ll take anyone with both power and speed and mostly ignore batting average, as anything could happen over a three week span. The only real downside here is his potential lack of starts against left-handed starters, as he might be a tough start in weekly leagues if he only figures to start in four to five games.