New Everyday Players — Aug 24, 2023

Another day, another pair of new everyday players to discuss!

Michael Busch | LAD 3B

With J.D. Martinez hitting the IL, the Dodgers have recalled Busch, their second ranked prospect and 30th overall, to take over DH duties, at least against right-handed starters. He was up with the club several times earlier in the season, so this isn’t actually his MLB debut. Unfortunately, with weak 20/20 Field scouting grades, his lack of positional value means he’s going to need to hit just to hold a strong side platoon role while Martinez is out.

Luckily, Busch’s minor league record suggests he’ll do just that. He enjoyed a huge Triple-A performance this year during his second time around the league. It was a massive improvement over his performance at the same level last year, which is good to see. His walk rate rebounded back into the mid-teens, while he posted his lowest strikeout rate and SwStk% as a professional. With a 14.4% walk rate and just an 18.9% strikeout rate, that’s some ideal plate discipline.

His BABIP has never fallen below .327, thanks to a close to ideal batted ball profile, heavy on line drives, and light on pop-ups. It could help keep his batting average in at least neutral territory, even if his strikeout rate gains this year prove unsustainable in the Majors.

Moving on to his power, he has posted a HR/FB rate of at least 19.3% during each minor league stop, and enjoyed a jump at Triple-A this year to 24.7%. His ISO also shot up to .292, as he hit both doubles and triples as well. My only slight concern is while a 111.5 maxEV is good, it’s perhaps not as high as I’d like to see to give me confidence he’s capable of a 20%+ HR/FB rate in the Majors right now. He doesn’t possess much speed though and has only stolen nine bases throughout his entire minor league career.

I like the upside here, though I don’t think he’ll be a significant home run contributor, just yet at least. But his plate discipline, which should give him some nice value in OBP leagues, combined with his BABIP skills, could make him a solid offensive player. I’ll take the over on the projections currently.

Casey Schmitt | SF 2B/SS/3B

Schmitt was up earlier in the season after a hot start, but predictably faded and was demoted to Triple-A back on Aug 6. He’s back up again and has started the last three games, getting one start each at second base, shortstop, and third base. The 24-year-old ranked as the team’s seventh best prospect, but his scouting grades suggest that much of his prospect value was tied to his fielding skills, as he was slapped with 60/70 Field grades. That’s not great for fantasy owners, but it certainly helps him stay in the lineup.

Schmitt was a BABIP monster over relatively small samples in the minors at Double-A in 2022 and then again at Triple-A this year. It’s not clear from his batted ball profile how he’s doing it, so I’m tempted to chalk it up to mostly a fluke. Clearly, if those skills did exist, they haven’t yet translated to the Majors, as he sports just a .255 mark so far over 209 ABs with the Giants, with a similar batted ball distribution.

He isn’t much of a walker, so he’ll need a strong BABIP to maintain a respectable OBP. He’s one of those guys who’s value is actually higher in batting average leagues thanks to the low walk rate. It’ll hurt his runs scored total, but perhaps increase his RBI count as he puts more balls in play.

Turning to power, he posted a professional low HR/FB rate at Triple-A this year, as it slipped into single digits for the first time since his debut at Single-A in 2021. His ISO fell to just .128 as well. It’s surprising, as his 110.1 MPH maxEV is above average and suggests at least a low double digit HR/FB rate. Maybe that maxEV was earned on a ground ball and his fly ball power just doesn’t measure up. However, his MLB maxEV has already reached 111.6 MPH, which is quite good, and it comes with a 5.8% Barrel%, which isn’t good, but not terrible. He seemingly deserves better than a 3.7% HR/FB rate. Sure enough, his xSLG of .326 is significantly above his actual .278 mark.

Like Busch, there isn’t much speed here. He stole eight bases throughout his entire minor league career and has swiped two so far with the Giants. Little speed combined with league average power at best means there’s not a whole lot of counting stat potential here.

Schmitt likely got picked up in many leagues thanks to his great start when he debuted, but that was obviously unsustainable and when you dig deeper, you find a guy with not much to get excited about in fantasy leagues. I would only be interested here in an NL-Only league where PAs are king.