Never Rebuild
Never rebuild – that’s my mantra. As a hard and fast rule, it’s a little too rigid to work in reality. However, as a rule of thumb, it’s a useful code of conduct. I have six leagues that can be described as a dynasty format. Occasionally, I do rebuild. Rosters break. We’re here to talk about those scenarios as well as why I believe rebuilding is for suckers.
Perhaps I should begin with a caveat. Avoiding rebuilds works for me. It’s a battle tested strategy that maps to my strengths and weaknesses as a fantasy player. Not every owner is like me. It’s possible that you should rebuild because it better fits your personal approach.
The goal of the Never Rebuild philosophy is to constantly and consistently field a contending roster. It starts by entering the season with a full fantasy lineup. In my deepest dynasty and ottoneu leagues, there are always at least a couple teams without a complete roster. They’ve reassigned those spots to prospects.
Simply by having an active roster, you’ve put yourself in a position to get lucky. John Buck could pop 10 home runs by May 3 – as he did in 2013. Even if you don’t benefit from a fluke like Buck, you could accidentally grab a high caliber major league asset like Zack Godley, Chris Taylor, or Tommy Pham. All three of them were freely available at one point in my weekly dynasty. We roster 900 players leaguewide. Those guys weren’t considered to be top 900 talents.
Alternatively, if you stack prospects, not only do you have no chance to place in your league, you also are unlikely to participate in the market for fringy major leaguers with upside. The guys who get the Godley or Taylor are the ones who need a short term roster patch. Then they prove themselves to be uncuttable.
Beginning the season with a contender-eligible lineup is not the same as committing to that roster for the full campaign. Sometimes, even a good roster falls apart. In my deepest dynasty, I went into the season with what should have been a first place candidate. Then Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Carlos Santana, Aaron Sanchez, Ben Zobrist, Jose Quintana, Trevor Story, J.D. Martinez, Danny Salazar, Sam Dyson, Brandon Maurer, and others failed to show up for April. At least Martinez had an excuse. Not only did those players fail to play to their (mostly) lofty norms, they actively hurt our stats.
Rather than continue flailing in 12th place, we pivoted to younger talent, trading our older stars and others for Anthony Rizzo and Mookie Betts while taking cheap fliers on Justin Smoak, Taylor, Godley, Dexter Fowler, Jed Lowrie, and a small army of scrubby pitchers. This was our rebuilding effort, but it’s more accurate to call it a “retooling.” And we clawed our way back to third place on the very last day of the season. We were very lucky.
The reason we spent a lot to acquire Rizzo and Betts is that prospects are exceptionally dangerous assets. Every player, even Mike Trout, could suddenly disappear. It’s a risk for everybody. That risk is massively higher for players who have yet to taste the upper minors. Prospects also tend to cost way more than they’re worth in fantasy baseball leagues. It’s all about the upside with nobody paying attention to the median and downside realities.
Recently, an owner paid Paul Goldschmidt and Corey Kluber to acquire Ronald Acuna. That same owner then offered a lesser package for our Betts (we also paid less than that when we acquired Betts). When I called him out on valuing Acuna higher than Betts, he said that was correct. Acuna is around five years younger than Betts which obviously matters in a keep forever format. As I put it, Acuna aspires to be Betts. If he reaches or betters that level of performance, this owner comes out looking smart. However, a large percentage of the possible outcomes involve Acuna never even approaching Betts’ level of output. One must willfully ignore the risks to prefer Acuna to Betts.
I should also point out that Acuna is actually a bad example. Acuna is a couple standard deviations better than a typical “good” prospect. Most “good” prospects either never establish themselves as fantasy regulars, or they take several years to cut their teeth in the majors. Even Byron Buxton – an Acuna-esque prospect – finally delivered his first useful season in 2017 – his third attempt in the majors. It’s still uncertain that he’ll produce in 2018.
Owners who invest in a complete rebuild often over-sell themselves on their own prospects. When you spike a couple guys – think Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Gary Sanchez – it’s time to start cashing in your other quality prospects for MLB talent. You may need to settle for a transition year or two. Unfortunately, most rebuilders fail to make this important pivot. Instead, they sell their Arenado for more highly regarded prospects.
This is an approach I employed in a 12-team keeper league. After struggling to start the 2016 season, I bulked up on minor leaguers like Andrew Benintendi, Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and others. Very early in 2017, I traded them for players like Joey Votto and Charlie Blackmon. I jumped from 10th in 2016 to second in 2017.
Parting Thoughts
Here’s the short version of the above:
- Avoid rebuilding
- Trying to contend often leads one to surprising rewards
- Retooling is better than rebuilding
- If forced to rebuild, plan to convert minor league talent into major leaguers once you spike a couple prospects
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Shout out to Wilson for completing the biggest sell high in the history of fantasy baseball with that Acuña trade.
I know both owners know their stuff, but I think it’s a pretty laughable trade. That’s what I’d expect for a top 5 player, let alone someone who’s never set foot on an MLB roster.
This question might sound sarcastic, but it’s not: For a top 5 player you’d expect two top ten players? (Maybe Kluber slightly outside the top ten …)
If you think of these players as dynasty assets rather than just the 2018 projection, then Kluber is very far outside of the top 10. Pitchers are shitty assets.
I love this article. There is one specific instance where I’d say a full rebuild is in order: you take over a true “stars and scrubs” team and your farm is junk.
Also, it’s truly amazing how easy it is to find underappreciated talent, even in a deep dynasty league. I’ve made major profits by doing that and flipping those talents (for example, signed Danny Duffy before the 2016 season and flipped him to a contender midseason for Alex Reyes).
Also, if your dynasty allows for prospect FA pickups, you can GREATLY accelerate a rebuild/retool by getting good at identifying lower-level breakouts and candidates for breakout.
I definitely agree that making the “Turn” is a huge step, and frankly a tough one to make. Especially for me, I enjoy prospecting so much that it’s very easy to get attached to them/the high of finding the “next big thing”.
That being said, rebuilds are difficult. I hate the noncompetitiveness of my team, and I’m taking extra precautions to set myself up to never have to rebuild again – retooling will hopefully be all that’s necessary.
Great article!
The prospect FA thing is important, because often there’s a guy sitting for free that is comparable to a back-end top-100 prospect. Once that reality clicks, you find you no longer have to sell actual assets for those types of prospects.
In the leagues I play in, this is how the contenders prosper and the rebuilding teams stay forever behind. They trade guys on lists for productive players, then fill in the roster spots they free up with guys who are basically identical to the ones on lists. And usually not too far down the road, those guys start actually appearing on lists because, well, other guys graduated and the lists caught up. Rinse, repeat.
Exactly. Just in the course of the two years I’ve been dealing with this rebuild I’ve grabbed these guys FOR FREE off of FA:
-Michel Baez
-Estevan Florial
-Jose Siri
-Jorge Guzman
-Jordan Hicks
-Dennis Santana
-Yordan Alvarez
-Keibert Ruiz
-Adonis Medina
-German Marquez
-Albert Abreu
-Thomas Szapucki
-Luis Urias
-Wander Javier
-Miguel Andujar
-Yandy Diaz
And this is a fully active league with generally intelligent GMs. I’m just quick on the trigger, and I subscribe to the theory that when dealing with prospects, always play for ceiling. Chances are I’ll drop a “safe” prospect for a prospect with a much higher ceiling, even if they’re not as developed. If they show signs of busting, rinse and repeat.
Now, some of these guys are still on my team and others have departed in deals for MLB talent. The secondary trick is getting good at identifying talents that are likely to “make it” and talents that fall short of the hype.
“There is one specific instance where I’d say a full rebuild is in order: you take over a true “stars and scrubs” team and your farm is junk.”
Nahh, not even in this situation. See my comment below. If they’re stars with surplus value then trade for more stars and search for as much low cost value in the draft and in-season, as possible. You’ll do fine.
I stand corrected, and I think this was one mistake I made in my rebuild. I fully blew up the team I had (given, I was handed a team that was strapped for cash and really didn’t have much outside of Syndergaard, Harvey, Price, and Longoria; even in the minors). I shipped off everything that had value. I should’ve hung onto Syndergaard and Harvey, and built around them (ignoring revisionist history in which I apparently was inspired in shipping off Harvey).
I would summarize the first and third points thusly: Rebuild in August, not the offseason.
I’ll note this, Chad and I did our dynasty rebuild in May. It wouldn’t have worked in August.
This is the best advice. I’ve done 2 retools in my 9 year keeper league. My first in 2013 was a deal to get Segura to tide me over until Seager came up. I somehow ended up in the finals. The 2nd was this year after 3 straight one-and-done seasons to give up depth playoff assets for Segura (ironically) and Daniel Murphy.
You have the best leverage in the August timeframe to retool because the top quarter of the league look to score additional depth for the stretch run and are open to dealing away valuable assets. I tend to negotiate multiple deals for guys until one or two really push and lower their asking price.
“Recently, an owner paid Paul Goldschmidt and Corey Kluber to acquire Ronald Acuna.”
Huh???
This is insane
The league shouldn’t have let that deal pass…
I should note that the guy who acquired Acuna is the top performing owner in the league. Nobody is sorry to see his roster weaken.
We also don’t have vetoes. And I personally don’t believe in vetoes.
Ahhh. Fair enough.
The issues I have ran into along my FBB journey is that teams go full rebuild and it destroys the balance of the league. Then 2 years into their rebuild they take off leaving the league in shambles. Pure shenanigans.
This is definitely a problem. The league in question had this exact problem in the past. Luckily, our replacement owners have mostly stuck around. We added some co-owners this winter, but nobody has dropped their team.
And some of the perpetual rebuilders are finally pivoting to a more competitive stance.
I’m about as high as someone can be on Acuna. I have a hard time thinking he won’t be a star. With that said, that trade? Woooow
We aren’t all so lucky to be in a league without collusion among friends
I just went through a rebuild, but it was after building my team to coalesce around Mauer, Fielder, Pedroia, Wright, Bautista, McCutchen, Choo, C Lee, Wainwright…. Couldn’t get em healthy together after winning in 2011 (or maybe 12).
Tore down two season ago, finished 15th (out of 16) and used the 2nd overall pick on Acuna (Senzel went first).
My core going forward now is: Freeman, Correa, Acuna, Devers, I Happ, Margot, Verdugo, with Stroman, Taillon, Bundy, Rodon, Snell, R Lopez, J Urias (RIP), A Reyes, Honeywell, Kopech, Puk, Flaherty, coming along at the minors level.
After finishing dead last this year, Ohtani should be in the fold next season with the first overall pick.
Injuries forced my rebuild, but I think I’ve done well stocking.
Last year I joined an established Ottoneu league by taking on the 11th place team. I considered rebuilding briefly and then rejected it. I focused on getting good players in the age range from 26 to 34, ignoring all prospects, except one in the draft, who I later flipped for some good vets. Finished in 2nd place and was in 1st place briefly in June. Never rebuild.
Similarly I took over a last place team in Ottoneu and paced the league starting week 2. Judge, Pham, Schoop were my 3 cheap studs that carried me, i was quick to cut a 25$ Jose Bautista at the end of april opening up a good bit of budget for FA. Since I was playing FGpoints I invested most of my pitching budget into RP (Jansen, Kimbrel, Holland, Giles) and scoured the wire all year for SP with good matchups.
This is really the key for me: “Simply by having an active roster, you’ve put yourself in a position to get lucky.”
So many owners rebuild the wrong way by not only stocking up on a load of prospects, but also by assuming that once they do they then only have to wait on them to develop. Not only does this usually fail, but it also makes the owner somewhat complacent or disengaged with all the other pop up MLB players that turn out to be useful.
I found this article interesting. I just won my NL-only dynasty league after a total rebuild. For the second time after two total rebuilds.
My league has a max of 5 year contracts, so it’s not keep forever. We also have a separate minor league roster, so we can still load up on prospects and still get the sleepers.
It’s also an auction league with salaries, so it’s easy to spend big on major free agents with the intent of trading them (I was able to get Bryant and Trea Turner like this by trading away expensive Rizzo and Kershaw and Stanton). Having cheap stars makes life way easier and allows me to overspend (like spending 21 units on Kemp for the HR and RBI).
Even going into this year, I’ll have Bryant, Turner, Nick Williams, Albies, and Jon Gray for a total of 51 units out of 280. That’s a nice head start.
“I’ll have Bryant, Turner, Nick Williams, Albies, and Jon Gray”
One of these things are not like the other things.
I feel like there should be slightly more context. What were the salaries of the players in the goldy, kluber – acuna trade? How much money does the guy already on his team and how far over the cap is he?
Maybe they were very highly priced and he couldnt afford to keep them thus changing them into an affordable asset? Salary considerations is a huge part of ottoneu that a lot of owners pay no attention to.
I just see a lot of people talking about collusion and ridiculing the trade and we don’t have enough info to make that judgement.
We keep 28 of 45 players, no cost, no limits.
There wasn’t anything untoward going on, and he has plenty of room to profit. Just a… strong valuation on Acuna.
One more caveat, when you play in 30 team leagues with deep minors (50+ per team) there is no waiver talent available. Only low minors breakouts. The rebuild is very likely your only path to high end talent.
That’s too deep. Without team resources, the only ways out of a rebuild are sheer luck or exploiting a dumber rival.
Too deep to some, the best way to play to others. I will concede that with 30 owners you are going to win some trades in your favor. Personally I have 3 30 teamers and they are by far my favorite leagues.
I’ve been in leagues where some owners look to add prospects (particularly after the MLB Draft, when these kids are all hyped-up) for the sole reason of offering them to a non-competitive team down the stretch.
Which is to say.. isn’t it also part of the problem that for every owner who looks to rebuild there are at least two owners who are more than willing to sell their high-risk/three-year-out waste-of-a-roster-space for a piece that can help them contend? I would venture to guess that most owners who start a rebuilding project kind of fall into it because someone else made them a trade offer that just pushed them there. And more than that, I would argue that most owners who rebuild are just new to the game in general and it’s just natural to want to rebuild a team to your liking once you’ve joined a new league/fantasy service… or in other words, these owners are not much more than unsuspecting victims who are ripe for the picking by any trade-savvy quick-offer slick-talking fantasy veteran.
This is where I think ottoneu falls a little short. The one-dimensional “loan” structure, which is often used when a competitive team adds an expensive player that would otherwise push them over the auction draft cap limits, offers nothing in return for the team that is actually “paying” the loan. One team has the advantage of getting the established player PLUS the money while the other team getting the talent for tomorrow is also paying for someone else to take his player and won’t be re-paid said “loan” (nevermind any interest) in some off-setting manner sometime in the future.
So it’s more than a talent/roster-space/salary-inflation thing when it comes to rebuilding. It’s also a loan thing, and I think that this is primarily what enables the behavior of established owners feeding on the inexperience of newbies and “pushing” them into rebuilds before they really understand the nuances of the game. Since ottoneu’s economic/loan system simply resets every year, there’s no discernable advantage with regards to rebuilding that is built-in to the game in the same way that there is for teams looking to compete for the now.
To really level the playing field between the “now” teams and the “rebuild” teams, ottoneu needs to offer both sides of the debt market- that is, some method of rebalancing the short-term economic shift of one season into the longer-term impact on the league/team/franchise over multiple seasons.
Well, if you’re not charging other owners for the loan dollars, you’re doing it wrong. That’s a big reason why I say to never cut Mike Trout. You can sell him after the auction for the value of a Mike Trout AND the $70 you’re loaning. That’s a mighty hefty package in future value, like a $4 Judge and a second high quality keeper.
You’re right, if you’re not “charging” people for the loan (as in, valuing the “loan” as another commodity) then you’re doing it wrong. And a lot of people have to do it wrong before they figure it out.
If the owner who acquires that $70 Trout in the middle of one season would have to ‘pay’ that loan back the following season, you’d have a lot fewer owners making the sort of “shiny-prospects-for-established-vet” offers that are often accepted by people who don’t (yet) realize that it doesn’t pay to add that 19 year-old toolsy outfielder in Rookie ball.
My point is that the economic system of the game incentivizes the sort of deals that can push unsuspecting owners into fruitless rebuilds. Poo on them for not knowing better, I guess, but carrying-over the economics of a league from year-to-year would not only be a more appropriate fit for the “ottoneu philosophy”, but it would also make for a system in which people could actually rebuild a franchise rather than constantly retool for next year.