Nationals Playing Time Battles: Pitching
We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.
At this point, I think you know what you’re getting yourselves into. We’re here to talk position battles. Max Scherzer’s battle for second best fantasy pitcher is irrelevant to us.
The Rotation
In addition to Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez are locked into starting roles. They aren’t going anywhere. Well, Strasburg and Gonzalez could be traded, but it seems a little late for the club to go that route.
Fourth on the depth chart is Doug Fister impersonator Tanner Roark. Fister, to be clear, is no longer a National (he is, in fact, a free agent). As for Roark, he’s a contact-oriented righty with plus command. In 363 career innings, he has a 3.12 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, 6.14 K/9, and 1.88 BB/9. Last season was his worst – a 4.38 ERA, 5.68 K/9, and 2.11 BB/9. He bounced between the rotation and bullpen which might explain the poor results.
Short of a terrible spring, Roark will be in the rotation. The current front runner to join him is Joe Ross. Tyson Ross‘ younger brother performed just like his sibling. He has a below average quality sinker and a plus slider. Personally, I’m very wary of Ross – I see a swing starter or setup reliever. Mike Podhorzer recently outlined most of my concerns.
Despite my worry, Ross was quite good in his major league debut. So long as he continues to produce, he’ll be a valuable member of the Nationals. In 13 starts and three relief appearances, Ross had a 3.64 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 8.10 K/9, and 2.47 BB/9. Once he got ahead in the count, he buried hitters under an avalanche of sliders.
In the event of injuries or poor performance, the team has plenty of depth (and a pending minor league contract offer to Bronson Arroyo). Fly ball pitcher Yusmeiro Petit is the swing man. The purveyor of the Invisiball could conceivably push Roark into the bullpen under the right conditions. Because he’s 30 and signed to a one-year contract, the Nationals will undoubtedly give preference to their long term assets.
While he’s not first in line on the call sheet, Lucas Giolito is on the cusp of the majors. The Nationals top prospect looks to be an ace in the making. He’s made just eight starts in the upper minors (3.80 ERA, 8.56 K/9, 3.23 BB/9 at Double-A). He’ll need to prove himself again at Double- and Triple-A before he shoves the door wide open. Since the Nationals are contending, we’ll probably see Giolito at some point this season.
Other names on the depth chart who could factor into a rotation competition are A.J. Cole, Taylor Jordan, and Blake Treinen. Of those, Treinen may be the best with his mid-90s sinker and borderline elite slider. His stuff played up out of the bullpen last season, but he also scrapped his plus change up. Prior to 2015, Treinen had similar PITCHf/x peripherals to Henderson Alvarez. He’s a dark horse candidate for solid rotation work or quality late-innings relief.
After spending most of the last two seasons at Triple-A, Cole is starting to lose his former prospect cachet. The righty has decent stuff and good minor league results. Despite a solid 2.90 BB/9 last season, his command is fringy. In one Triple-A start I attended in Durham, he completely lost his feel for the strike zone while doing a passable Rick Ankiel impression.
The Bullpen
I bet the Nationals wish they could hit the undo button on the Jonathan Papelbon trade. Not that they traded much for him, but everything went downhill after his acquisition. Since he saw fit to choke his (prominent) teammate in full view of cameras, the club has no hope of trading him.
Assuming he can put his late season scuffles behind him, Papelbon should do just fine as the closer. His setup men include Shawn Kelley, Treinen, and Oliver Perez.
Kelley was inked to a three-year, $15MM contract earlier in the offseason. He has a backup closer pedigree. Clubs are probably hesitant about using Kelley in the ninth inning due to an unimpressive fastball. He gets around the quality of the pitch by throwing his slider 55 percent of the time. He’s one of the few pitchers to throw a breaking ball more than a fastball. The pitch performs nearly as well as Craig Kimbrel’s breaking ball.
As we discussed, Treinen’s stuff plays up out of the bullpen. His fastball gained about three tics on the radar gun (97 mph), and the slider became an even bigger weapon. His fastballs are still contact-inducing pitches which can make it hard for him to rack up strikeouts. His heater is better geared towards starting. If and when the club fully commits to him as a reliever, he may begin to experiment with more whiff-tastic fastballs. One would hope.
Good ol’ Ollie Perez has reinvented himself as one of the top LOOGYs in the league. Last season, he held lefties to a .236 wOBA. Righties slaughtered him. Interestingly, in 2013 and 2014, lefties hit well off Perez. If he’s catching any save opportunities, it’s the result of an epic bullpen collapse. However, he should earn 10 to 15 holds.
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they seem to really like felipe rivero, who was (successfully) used as the fill-in closer at the end of the year with storen out and papelbon suspended. so out of the lefties i think rivero’s more of a setup guy than ollie, who’s more liable to commute on the pure one-lefty-batter bus.
i’d also figure trevor gott being above treinen in the righty hierarchy
so i’d at least mention those guys tbh
Fair to bring them up. I don’t really see them being a big factor in the late innings – at least initially.
Of the two, Felipe Rivero is more likely to have the necessary stuff for late innings relief, but I’m not sure the club is done with him as a starter. Given that he has a nice change to go with his plus fastball and slider, I would think a year in the Triple-A rotation would be the best use of his skill set. They’re reaching a point with Treinen’s options and service years that they have very little choice with him. He either wins a rotation job or he relieves. They still have a range of choices with Rivero.
I know Gott has the big fastball, but his stuff is fringe mlb at the moment. He’s not a late inning reliever with just an average-performing 97 mph fastball.
rivero really clicked as a reliever last year, i don’t think there’s any way they go back to starting him and i haven’t seen a single word suggesting it all winter
If you think the Nats are thinking of Rivero as a starter, you haven’t been paying attention. Treinen has only 1.065 years of service time so that’s not an issue. He definitely has options left.
Gott had a pretty good year as a rookie. No one’s calling him Craig Kimbrel but he pitched in innings 7-9 in 38 out of his 48 appearances with the Angels.
Other than that, I agree with you.
The Angels bullpen was a bit of a mess though and most of their guys were soft tossers.
As for Rivero, I know for a fact that the organization prefers to develop their pitchers as starters and convert them to relief only once they’re forced to. Rivero has 3 good pitches so I don’t see why he would fall outside of their normal operating procedures. Unless they changed how they operate since mid-season.
If I’m not mistaken, Treinen only has one more option. And he’s not the kind of pitcher where that’s not a consideration.
you’re generalizing from organizational tendencies instead of examining the specific player situation. if they only convert pitchers to relief once they’re forced to, why did they already convert rivero to relief before last season? and it worked. go ahead and google him. see how they talk about him as a reliever. see if you can find one mention of sending him back to starting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2015/07/26/felipe-rivero-impressing-with-velocity-command/
or go ahead and be stubborn, i guess, and wait for the spring and see what happens
Well then they’ve already converted Rivero, I’d say. And probably Treinen too. He wasn’t effective enough in relief last year to warrant keeping him in the bullpen instead of starting him in AAA.
I find team behavior and what they talk about behind the scenes to be more telling than what they say to the media.
ok, well. i was with you on the JP crawford thing, think you’re wrong about this one. time will reveal all
To be fair, I’m not saying it’s a certainty Rivero won’t relieve. I just suspect they’ll be comfortable enough with their depth to give him another shot at starting in the minors.
If I had to lay odds, Crawford not reaching the majors this year is more likely than Rivero making 10 starts across all levels.
From January 10th, 2016: http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/nationals-gm-rizzo-expects-papelbon-stay
The Nationals committed to Rivero becoming a reliever last season, including all of his appearances in AAA.