National League Starting Pitcher Tiers: May

May 7, 2015

We’re a month in and it’s time to update the NL SP tiers. A month can and definitely has changed things, but we need to be careful not to overreact to what we’ve seen so far, for better or worse. It’s a fine balance, though. We don’t want to overreact, but if we stay married to all of our preseason notions too long, we could miss the boat on guys, again for better or worse.

For May, I’ve got 10 tiers covering 70 names. I realize that there are 75 guys currently in rotations, but 10 of them just didn’t make the cut. Meanwhile, five injured arms not currently in rotations did merit a spot, thus the 70 count. I don’t yet have a fun theme for naming the tiers, but if the tiers are named by the time you read this, it means I came up with something and didn’t edit out this sentence.

TIER 1

Kershaw held the top tier by himself in the Mar/Apr tiers and though he is still the top guy for me, he has company now. And it’s more about the excellence of these three than any shortcomings or “struggles” for Kershaw. Sure, he’s toting a mortal 3.72 ERA, but his 33% K rate still leads the NL and is up a tick from last year. In fact, his line looks a lot like last year’s except in the HR (1.2 HR/9) and BABIP (.348) departments. I think it’s safe to bet on a drop down for both and thus a drop in ERA is inevitable. Hilariously, he could shave a run off of his current ERA and still be a full run away from last year’s obscene mark.

Scherzer started getting late-first round run the deeper we got into draft season as many started listing him ahead of Felix Hernandez for that overall #2 SP spot. Frankly, you couldn’t lose with either of them thus far, but Scherzer has validated the jump he received with a brilliant start to his Nats career. He has established himself as the clear ace of the team ahead of Strasburg and Zimmermann, not only with his excellence, but also with some sputtering from the other two.

Harvey’s price surged with each passing Spring Training start and he has justified that and then some so far. The Mets have only let him top 100 pitches once and that’s because he was in the midst of a complete game against the Yankees. Even then, he still only finished with a perfectly reasonable 107 pitches. They are going to protect him here and there with a six-man rotation so he might not get 32 starts, but look what he did in just 26 back in 2013.

TIER 2

Greinke remains underrated. It’s not like people don’t know who he is or think he’s bad or something, but the presence of Kershaw continues to leave Greinke short on the praise he deserves. For three years following his Cy Young effort in KC, he showed glimpses of that same guy, but too many implosion starts left us with FIP blue balls.

FIPs of 3.34, 2.98, and 3.10 had us thinking there was a bigger payoff coming from Greinke, but 17 implosion starts (5+ ER) led to a 3.83 ERA (against a 3.16 composite FIP). He’s had just four implosions with the Dodgers while continuing the excellent skills, yielding a 2.57 ERA in 420.3 IP. His strikeout rate might not surge all the way back to last year’s 25%, but it’s improving and should finish higher than his current 22% rate.

Early on it seems Cole is making his transition into ace-dom. It’s been bubbling below the surface since his arrival with glimpses here and there, even for starts at a time. But it may finally be here to stay: Gerrit Cole – Ace.

Whatever skepticism I had about Arrieta was related to health. When healthy, I believe in the skills we saw last year and they’ve been right there again so far in 2015. The strikeout rate is down a bit, but the walk and groundball rates have improved a tick to counter it.

TIER 3

Lynn’s jump in strikeout rate has greatly improved his outlook and gives him a much better chance at repeating last year’s 2.74 ERA (though I still think he’ll finish north of that this year). He’s becoming something of a fastball artist with a four-seamer, sinker, and cutter. Improved command of all three in all four quadrants of the zone has driven the strikeout surge (30% K rate on hard stuff, up from 22%).

He’s working the edges more effectively with his hard stuff and hitters are swinging through it. His 12% swinging strike rate with the fastball is fifth-best in baseball and basically tied Harvey (12.4%) while the pair sit just behind Scherzer and Shields who are tied at 13%. I might as well tell you who is leading, too, since you’re probably curious: Chris Sale at 14%.

This is a bet on the come for Wacha’s strikeout rate. It’s currently down at 13% and while that hasn’t held him back (1.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), it needs to improve for him to stay among the best. His stuff is better than this rate. I’m not expecting a return to his 25% of 2013, but last year’s 21% is a more than reasonable expectation for his arsenal.

The ever-looming threat of a trade plus the early command struggle drop Hamels down a bit. I think until he is traded, we could see some inconsistency as we have early on. A four homer game will do a number on anyone’s rates in a five-start sample, but he still has a 1.1 HR/9 outside of that. The walk rate is concerning, too. He’s walked fewer than three just once this year and that’s not something we’re used to seeing from Hamels. He has always been a 6-7% BB rate guy, but he’s up at 12% so far this year and just 12 batters away from the walk rate stabilization point.

TIER 4

Zimmermann’s velocity is down about 2 MPH, batters aren’t swinging through his stuff, and his groundball rate is down to 38%. On the other hand, he has a firm track record of 96 starts over the last three seasons that suggests he is much better than this. Additionally, he isn’t walking the yard or allowing a ton of homers so it’s not like he’s lost command of his stuff. It’s been a bit of hit parade against him (9.9 H/9) and the incredible shoddy defense behind him certainly isn’t helping things given how much contact he’s allowing. Had to drop him down a couple tiers, but nowhere near dropping him from the roster.

The Pirates have to be furious that they’re only 12-14 despite the April they got from Cole, Burnett, and Liriano. All three are toting sub-2.00 ERAs (Cole is throwing as I’m writing this and may be above 2.00 by night’s end) with strong skills to back it up in 31-32 innings apiece. Burnett rejoined Pittsburgh and has seen his strikeout and groundball rates jump and his walk rate dip resulting in the version of Burnett we saw in 2012-13 with the Pirates. He had a 3.41 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in those two seasons, he should do the same or better from here on out.

Liriano is also looking a lot like the version we’ve gotten used to in the last two seasons with Pittsburgh, but he’s used a barely-there .167 BABIP to completely outrun his low-to-mid 3.00s skills with a 1.95 ERA thus far. It will go up and with his 12% walk rate, he will have a clunker or two, but he’s a must-start asset with strikeout and ERA upside that you gladly accept for some WHIP downside (1.26 the last two years, 1.31 career).

It would be revisionist to such I saw this coming from Miller through a month, but I am surprised he was so overlooked coming into the season. Given his prospect fanfare and incredible rookie campaign back in 2013, I thought he would be given more leeway for 2014. While he fell short of expectations, it’s not like he destroyed anyone’s team. The skills waned, but the ERA didn’t match the drop as he still managed a 3.74 ERA in 183 IP. The emergence of his cutter as a weapon has driven his success.

He threw it just 6% of the time last year with OK results (.699 OPS, 16% K in 37 PA). This year he’s throwing it 21% of the time and the results have been incredible: .232 OPS and 29% K in 31 PA. Yes, he’s just six away from matching his number of PA that ended with a cutter last year. Of the 32 pitchers with at least 15 PA ending on a cutter, Miller’s .069 AVG is best and only Dan Haren beats the .232 OPS (.228 OPS in 27 PA). The strikeout rate is fourth-highest.

TIER 5

Hammel left a sour taste in the fantasy community’s collective mouth with his start in Oakland, but that sells him short and left him undervalued in the market. He was brutal in those first four starts out west before rebounding with a 2.49 ERA and 3.8 K:BB ratio in his final 50.7 IP. He returned to the spot where he posted a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts and has essentially replicated those skills with a slightly lower K rate (22% to 21%), but a much lower walk rate (6% to 2%). I think at worst he’ll match the 3.73 ERA we’ve seen to date with a positive WHIP and solid strikeout rate while carrying the upside for an ERA closer to 3.40 and a great shot at setting a career-high wins (albeit with an admittedly low bar of 10, done three times).

The excitement surrounding Martinez is understandable given his raw talent, but a bit inflated given that we’re still dealing with a 23-year old going through his first season as a full-time starter in the majors. Command has always been a battle for him and as great as the first five starts were (1.73 ERA), they did nothing to suggest it wouldn’t remain a battle for him (11% BB, 1.5 HR/9).

Fiers has also struggled with his command, though he has also done enough to maintain a roster spot in every format. A 4.74 ERA is annoying especially because it’s driven by the longball (1.8 HR/9), but I can’t imagine releasing a 30% K rate onto the waiver wire. He is still missing bats and fooling hitters, but his misses have been punished thanks in large part to the fact that he just doesn’t have overwhelming stuff. I’m willing to wait at least another five starts to see if the command irons out because he still be special if it does.

Colon is so awesome. How can you not root for him? He turns 42 and drops a 13-year high in K rate because why not? The 22% rate isn’t likely to hold, but it’s still impressive even if only for a month. I’d expect him to offer up something in the 16-18% range. If you are going to have him on your team, then commit to it. Don’t try to spot start him or figure out when it’s going to sideways, just let him pitch anywhere but Coors. He can dominate great teams or get knocked around for 10 hits against weak ones, but more often than not he is going to be good. His 2013 is still a legitimate upside (2.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but plan for something around a 3.50 ERA the rest of the way and enjoy anything else as bonus.

TIER 6

Kennedy was trounced in his return from the disabled list (4.3 IP/8 ER), but looked a lot like the 2014 version in his follow-up (6 IP/2 ER) and I expect more of the latter from him the rest of the way. The hamstring shouldn’t be a lingering issue so we should get the mid-3.00s innings eater with solid Ks that we bought back in March.

Anderson has improved his skills across the board with perhaps the biggest change being his 48% GB rate – up from 40% last year – which has helped him chop his HR rate in half to 0.6 HR/9. We’ve seen these quality skills from him throughout his 143.7 major league innings so his ERA is essentially dependent upon his HR suppression. If this newfound groundball rate sticks, I like him to stay near this 3.38 ERA.

Lohse is still working off that 8 ER shellacking from Opening Day, but his skills are right in line with the skills that helped Lohse to a 3.28 ERA in 796.3 innings over the last four years. He shook off an 8 ER and two 7 ER outings in 2014 to post a 3.54 ERA. Unless his 20% HR/FB somehow holds (it won’t, he’s a career 10% guy), he should pitch to that level from here on out. If you’ve got your strikeouts handled, he is a solid buy-low target.

TIER 7

The shoulder inflammation that sent Morrow to the DL is being treated as more of rest period as opposed to something severe, but the consistent injury concerns certainly limit his ceiling. He has been pitching brilliantly thus far and I suspect he can remain an asset for most starts (keep him out of Coors) once he returns, but I don’t think you can bet on more than 100 innings the rest of the way in the best-case scenario. A figure that would be 20 fewer than he’s thrown in the last three years combined.

Harang can’t shake his 2013 nightmare (5.40 ERA). Too many people believe that’s who he is even in the face of his quality 2014 effort (3.57 ERA in 204.3 IP) or two decent years before 2013 (3.62 ERA in 305.3 IP). He isn’t what his current stats suggest, either – 2.35 ERA and 0.97 WHIP – but there is a large gap between the two. He’s a true talent high-3.00s guy with his HR allowance ultimately determining his upside (or downside).

I feel like we could see Bradley evolve in-season. Unfortunately the liner to the face is a setback, but thankfully he is OK aside from a swollen face and shiner under his eye. So far he is just trying to survive and taking outs any way he can get them with a 60% GB rate doing a lot of the heavy lifting. He has swing-and-miss stuff, though, so as he gets comfortable, his strikeout rate should rise. His debut season will have some bumps, though, and the inconsistency without strikeouts will be tough to handle.

Now is around the time I’d consider acquiring Fernandez. He is still far away enough that he shouldn’t be too expensive and I already had someone pay his draft freight and eat the DL spot for a month. He is still a big gamble, though. I think too many people are expecting him to be like a 90% version of himself right out of the gate. I think he will have his hiccups for the first month or so, but could be a strong asset down the stretch if all goes according to plan.

Wood has seen a rise in his swinging strike rate to a career-high 8.6%, but it’s not commensurate with the strikeout rate increase he’s enjoyed, going from 19% to 26%. Homers will always be a part of his game which gives him a real Ted Lilly feel. He can look great in any given outing, but the homers limit his ERA upside. Meanwhile, he will be a WHIP asset more often than not and this year is showing he might have some strikeout upside.

TIER 8

De la Rosa was torched in his opener (2 IP/7 ER), but he’s looked a lot more like himself in his next two (4.50 ERA in 10 IP). He has an incredible 31% K rate through three starts backed by a 16% swinging strike rate, too. I’m not entirely sure it’s for real, but his velocity is up and his cutter has turned into an out-pitch against righties. He’s burying it on their hands and they can’t do anything with it: .176 AVG, 42% K rate, and 28% SwStr rate in 19 PA. With the splitter rounding into form v. righties as well, DLR could be poised to return to 2013 levels with more strikeouts. An interesting spec pick, likely available for free in a lot of leagues.

Fister has shown he can succeed without missing any bats, but it’s a tenuous situation that can awry without notice. His groundball rate has really dipped, too, which also lowers the confidence in this high-contact approach.

Alvarez hasn’t been all that different throughout his career: 2012 shows the downside (4.85 ERA), 2013 is what you should expect if you’re a believer (3.59 ERA), and 2014 shows the best-case scenario (2.65 ERA). He needs to be at that 2014 level to sustain value in innings-cap leagues, though, because that K rate is disastrous.

The bulk of this group is similar: low-strikeout guys who have enough talent to overcome that deficiency and still deliver decent ratios. Of course, with the low strikeout totals, the margin for error is much lower, but it’s hard to get a full roster of strikeout-per-inning guys. There are also some health concerns within this group (Haren, Hudson, Anderson, and Niese), but you can feel comfortable expecting some usable performance when they’re upright.

Collmenter is ridic. I really don’t know what to make of him because it doesn’t seem like he should be all that good and yet he kinda is. He’s actually never been bad but as a fantasy community we act like he’s a total tomato can. He has a 3.42 career ERA with a 12% K-BB ratio. That’s built on his 6% BB rate, but even if you remove his relief work which pumps up his strikeout rate (22% K rate in 149 IP as RP), he still has an 11.5% mark (14% as RP) in 407 innings while still holding a decent 3.76 ERA. He seems to be another one of those where you can’t try and get cute about when you use him. If you have him, just put him in with the idea that you’ll get a quality WHIP (career 1.15) and only take him out for Coors starts as you would with any non-stud.

Garza can’t be this bad, right? I’m willing to bet he’s not as his 20% K and 8% BB rates are much better than the 15% and 10% figures he is currently sporting. He is rocking a career-high 48% groundball rate so that’s at least one good thing. I also highly doubt the 20% HR/FB rate continues so while he has had HR issues in the past, I think the 1.5 HR/9 comes down toward his 1.0 career mark.

TIER 9

Ryu’s shoulder rehab is going much slower than expected and it’s really hard to get a read on what we might get from him this year. Obviously a healthy Ryu belongs much higher, but right now it’s just too uncertain of a situation to invest in confidently.

I like Lincecum’s new GB rate (56%). If it’s the key to him keeping the ball in the yard (1.1 HR/9 last three years), then he might have his first sub-4.00 ERA since 2011. I’m still a bit skeptical, but I’ve got him back on the radar for the first time in forever.

Prior to his most recent outing, Heston’s only bad effort was in Coors, but the Padres ripped him for 11 hits and five earned in five innings his last time out. Thankfully, getting blasted by SD is much more acceptable these days. Heston seems pretty close to what we’ve seen thus far: 3.38 ERA, 1.39 WHIP with decent strikeout and walk rates powered by a big groundball rate. If he continues to keep the ball and thus in the yard, he’ll be a solid backend/streaming option.

The three young bucks have various degrees of upside, but a ton of risk. First off, their spots are far from guaranteed. There will be growing pains for sure. Frias has bounced between starting and relieving, Lorenzen had all of three starts in Triple-A before making the majors, and Folty has yet to show the command-and-control necessary to regularly go six or more innings.

TIER 10

Peavy’s health is always a concern so while he can be good when in, he just won’t be in as often as necessary.

Despaigne is fun to watch with his kitchen sink approach, but he just doesn’t miss the bats to be a fantasy option even if a full-time role opens up. He’s a home-only stream at best.

Gee is a total WYSIWYG. He’s lived in a tight band of mediocrity the last three years and I’m sure he’ll remain there for the foreseeable future. Let’s see if this 59% GB rate is for real, though, as it could push his ceiling up a bit. He’s always had a groundball lean (1.3 GB/FB), but this is elite and would actually change his outlook some.

I’m really nervous about Cain’s health which is why he fell so far. Until we get some more clarity around that situation, I’m staying away.

Locke has shown flashes of something more, but always winds up just hittable enough to be about average-at-best.

Koehler pitched fine his last time out to the non-Bryce Harper contingent of the Nats lineup.

Phelps’ value is almost entirely driven by the fact he is an SP/RP. This is only relevant in H2H leagues that force certain SP and RP slots to curb streaming. But at least he has a format where someone might purposely pick him up.

The Dodgers can’t afford to let Wieland learn on the job. If he can’t be passable for five innings, they’ll try someone else. Eventually, they’ll probably just trade for someone.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG