My Home League: Keeper Questions

As mentioned before in these digital pages, my home league is a mixed league keeper format with 12 teams. The 29-man rosters + 10 prospect list each makes transforms what would normally be a pretty shallow league into one where it’s nearly as deep as Ottoneu. With a 5 keeper maximum, the ability to trade draft picks and built-in keeper inflation, there are a lot of wrinkles to consider when building, or for me, more accurately rebuilding. As a refresher, it’s a 6×6 league with total bases and holds as the extra categories, and on-base percentage replacing batting average. For reference, my prospect list can be found here.

A quick run down of my season goes as following:

Step 1. Blow the draft (Passing on Josh Donaldson for Stephen Strasburg hasn’t exactly worked out)
Step 2. Burn a lot of picks next year attempting to build a roster
Step 3. Probably finish no higher than fourth
Step 4. Try not cry
Step 5. Cry a lot
Step 6. Look to see what I can do in 2016

Okay, so I head into next season without my first, fifth, sixth and seventh round picks. I moved them in a deal for Carlos Santana, Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, Jay Bruce and Felix Hernandez. It was huge price, but I did it relatively early in the season, May 11. Anyways, I’m hovering at sixth right now, and realistically I have no chance at a top-3 finish, so time to look ahead. I have to call up Gregory Polanco and James Paxton before the end of the season or I’ll lose them from my prospect list and they’ll eligible for next year’s draft. I’ll definitely make the call with Polanco as my first keeper at 29th round value next year, however I’m less sure about Paxton, even at 28th round value. His string of injuries plus my already strong pitching staff make me uneasy, especially if I have to use three keeper slots on pitchers.

Assuming I only go with Polanco and not Paxton, I have another four keepers to play hang on to. I have some no-brainers before the decision making process gets tough.

Corey Kluber — He was kept as my 21st rounder, as I had him on my prospect list before his breakout in the majors. Thanks Cistulli.

Scott Kazmir — This was a steal, as free agent pickups (assuming they weren’t drafted and dropped), hold a ton of value and upside. I hung on to Kazmir for the price of my 28th rounder last year. He’s being kept.

Xander Bogaerts — My 29th rounder last year. To not keep him would be a move that would and should get me kicked out of my league. Funny story, one of the owners dropped Joe Mauer during his bonkers 2009 season. Said owner is no longer in the league.

Those three players plus Polanco leave me one final keeper. The following are my options, with some pros and cons. They’re listed in order of where I drafted or picked them up. League rules require me to submit a list of potential keepers, up to 10, before I post my final five keepers. Dilemma, thy name is roto-ball.

Jake Odorizzi, 10th round — My love of Odorizzi and his 10 percent swinging strike rate is pretty well known. His strikeout rate isn’t quite what I hoped it would be, yet I can’t complain about a 3.02 ERA. Odorizzi’s 3.74 xFIP and 3.70 SIERA aren’t quite as shiny, but hanging on to Odorizzi, especially so cheap, is enticing.

Lorenzo Cain, 11th round — Cain has cut some strikeouts while maintaining his speed and average, and then to top things off he added some power this season. Via Baseball Heatmaps, Cain’s average fly ball distance this year is 285 feet compared to 260 last year, a good sign for his home run increase. That said, his .300+ AVG isn’t particularly valuable, though his current .366 OBP would be welcome on any team in the league. I’ll have to take a closer look at Cain before I do anything.

Adam Lind, 14th round— Strong value, however I feel like this season represents his upside, not normal level of play. I doubt I’ll keep him, but I’m entertaining the thought. Lind will make the preliminary list of potential keepers and that’s probably as far as he makes it.

Nick Markakis, 19th round — Basically the same situation as Lind. Markakis is 31 — he’ll be playing his age-32 season next year — and is enjoying a strong year. A .338 BABIP is helping offset his declining power numbers, however I’m not sure I can keep him, even at this price.

Marcell Ozuna, 22nd round — Here is where the real world and fantasy baseball throw me for a loop. Ozuna crushed Triple-A pitching after being demoted, and 2016 will be his age-25 season. His power upside is undeniable and if he gets traded to a team that will give him plate appearances, Ozuna could be my final keeper.

Free agent pick ups (29th round value)
Danny Valencia
Gregory Bird
Delino DeShields Jr.

Valencia is enjoying a big year, yet I’m only considering him due to his cheap price. He’ll be playing his age-31 season next year and while he’s crushed the ball this year — and his BABIP reflects that — I’m not sure I can hang on to him as one of my final five keepers.

Bird’s power upside is huge and his double-digit walk rate is very enticing. That said, I don’t see a clear path to playing time ahead of him.

DeShields is probably the one I’d hang on to among the 29th rounders. He’s basically the only center fielder on the Rangers, and as such I don’t see him losing playing time when Nomar Mazara (probably) gets called up next year.

With the core of Polanco, Kluber, Kazmir and Bogaerts, as well as post-draft call ups of Noah Syndergaard, Jorge Soler, Miguel Sano and Joc Pederson, I have a solid team, even when accounting for the huge loss of so many draft picks. I’m not sure I’ll be able to compete for the title, but with a few breaks and a strong draft I could surprise.