My Hitting Portfolio

I play in a lot of fantasy baseball leagues. Like, a lot. I absolutely love the game, can’t resist a challenge, and have a tough time saying no when invited. All of that adds up to a 16-league portfolio when the dust settles. I’m sure some of you are thinking, “well doesn’t every result help and hurt you at this point?” Not quite. Part of that is because I’m a bulk drafter when it comes to “my guys”. There are certain players on both sides of the ball that I really focus on year-to-year and I end up trying to roster them as often as possible provided the format and pricetag are in line to do so.

I obviously can’t just copy the first team across the remaining 15, though, so I do have a shit-ton of different players. In fact, I have 244 different players at least once. A major part of this is because I’m in two NFBC 50-round draft-and-holds and I’ve got a lot of players on both of those teams that don’t show up anywhere else because of how deep we go in that league. As my league count ballooned, I began keeping track of who I have year-to-year to see how my investments shook out against what I believed coming into the season. We’re going to take a look at my portfolio today from the hitter side of things to see how it all turned out.

At the outset, let me mention that National League guys only had a chance to be on 12 of the 16 teams while American Leaguers had a 15-of-16 potential. So that’s 11 mixed leagues, three AL-onlys, and one NL-only. The formats are varied from standard 5×5 roto to 5×5 with OBP replacing AVG to 4×4 to H2H points, among a few other scoring quirks here and there. There were 11 drafts and five auctions. Let’s tour the diamond by position to see my most-acquired players at each.

CATCHER
The bulk of these leagues are two-catcher formats. This year I tried to avoid scraping the bottom of the barrel behind the dish. BaseballHQ’s Forecaster tells us that catchers are the worst endgame investment as the only position that averages a negative return in dollar days. I’ve routinely punted catcher to spend the money elsewhere in hopes of striking gold with some clowns behind the dish, not this year. OK, I got some clowns, but fewer than most years.

I didn’t run to the other side of the spectrum and grab Buster Posey and Jonathan LuCroy everywhere, but I spent a lot of time in that middle tier. The fact that six of my leagues count OBP will be obvious with my top picks at this position. Here are the five guys I have on at least two rosters:

6	Russell Martin
5	John Jaso
4	Yasmani Grandal
2	Derek Norris
2	Tyler Flowers

I wouldn’t say I fully believe in Martin’s .402 OBP from 2014, but I certainly buy him as a premium OBP asset behind the dish. Plus, his going to that incredible lineup made him even more enticing for me. My favorite thing about Jaso was his non-catching catcher status as I believed it would help him stay healthy and possibly set a career-high in plate appearances (currently 404), but he needed all of one game to get hurt and wind up in the DL.

It just occurred to me that my top four catchers are all on new teams. At least Jaso isn’t catching, but the other three are learning new staffs and I wonder if that will encroach on their hitting at all. Maybe I should’ve thought about this before the season. I really like the two NL West guys in Grandal and Norris, who became Grandal’s SD replacement. They are both quality OBP assets, but also have enough power and upside that I had no problem getting them in AVG leagues, too.

I have 11 other catchers at least once, including a share of Buster Posey, Yan Gomes, and Devin Mesoraco, while the rest are pure butt.

FIRST BASE

5	Joey Votto
4	Joe Mauer
4	Brandon Moss
3	Garrett Jones
3	Mike Napoli
2	Allen Craig
2	Tyler Moore

My OBP-ness shows clearly with my first base picks. Four of the five leagues where I got Votto are of the OBP variety, in which he is of course a beast. He was everyone’s favorite pick of mine in ToutWars wherein “favorite” means “most-hated ever”. I went two-and-two with Mauer in terms of OBP and AVG. His cost was too good to pass up in all four leagues, even considering his first base-only eligibility and the remarkably uninspiring 2014 effort.

I kind of wish I’d have gotten more shares of Napoli, although by the end of draft season, his price started to rise so I couldn’t steal him regularly anymore. He still wasn’t costing too much or anything, but he jumped to a level where I had other guys I liked, including Moss.

Jones, Craig, and Moore are all deep-leaguers that were dirt-cheap. I was able to hit the elite tier of first baseman with some one-share guys including Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, and Anthony Rizzo. I also got a piece of mid-tier guys like Brandon Belt, Adam LaRoche, Chris Carter, and Billy Butler. I really like my first base portfolio top to bottom.

SECOND BASE

6	Arismendy Alcantara
4	Luis Valbuena
3	Brian Dozier
2	Anthony Rendon
2	Howie Kendrick
2	Ben Zobrist
2	Scooter Gennett
2	Rougned Odor
2	Emilio Bonifacio

Alcantara is someone I loved getting late as I expect him to expand his 2B/OF eligibility and be that super-utility power-speed asset for the Cubs. I got him in a full 50% of possible leagues and I’m pretty happy about it. He was my favorite flyer in the staff picks and I definitely practiced what I preached in that regard.

He isn’t a starter for me anywhere, so while I’m heavily invested from a quantity standpoint, the price to do so wasn’t over-the-top. The easy comp that was made all offseason was The Next Zobrist which would obviously be intriguing. Well, as long as it was prime Zobrist and not last year Zobrist. Hell, Alcantara basically matched Zobrist’s HR-SB totals in less than half the playing time (10/8 for AA in 300 PA, 10/10 for BZ in 654 PA).

Valbuena is someone I’ve been talking up in the early part of the season so his presence on four teams probably isn’t too surprising. I like the investments more as he’s been batting third against righties, something I didn’t expect coming into the season. He is 0-for-10 to start the season, but hopefully A.J. Hinch shows some patience and lets Valbuena get his feet under him before shifting him from that spot. It’s not like the Astros offense is clicking outside of Valbuena. The buzzsaw that was the frontend of the Indians rotation demolished them in a three-game set (.096 AVG, .353 OPS).

As high as I was (and still am, to be honest) on Rendon, I wasn’t able to get him as often as I would’ve liked and that ended up benefitting me as he ended up getting injured during Spring Training and is currently staring at a month off before returning as most timetables suggest late-April at the earliest.

In the one-share division, my best players include Dustin Pedroia, Dee Gordon, Kolten Wong, and Chase Utley. I’m intrigued by spring speed standouts Micah Johnson and Odubel Herrera so I scooped a share of each.

SHORTSTOP

5	Starlin Castro
5	Brad Miller
4	Brandon Crawford
3	Xander Bogaerts
2	Troy Tulowitzki
2	Erick Aybar
2	Javier Baez
2	Everth Cabrera

I came out of draft season very pleased with shortstop shares. I’m very high on Castro and think we could see a big year from him in that Cubs lineup. I was pretty high on Miller last year and while it didn’t work out (.290 wOBA), I still believe in that talent and he was much cheaper this time around. He showed some life in the final two months of the season, too, but he was so buried by the first four that it didn’t really show up unless you dug into the numbers. Bogaerts is similar to Miller. He cost more than Miller this year, but still much cheaper than last year and I’m not running away from him based on a modest rookie year.

A double investment in Baez isn’t ideal at this point, but one was a keeper league and the other was a draft in November where I let SS sit too long and ended up taking Baez too early. I have Miller in that same league so he’s starting right now. And while the community is understandably down on Baez right now, that pick could still pay off this summer.

I backed up Tulo very quickly in both leagues I got him with Castro and Hanley Ramirez (yes, I realize he isn’t exactly rock solid health-wise, either, but it was an OBP league so I preferred that combo to a Tulo-Desmond double up). Tulo is that one player who can really rival Trout on a per-at-bat basis and while we know he will likely never match him in raw at-bat totals, he is still someone worth getting in at least a couple spots because what if he makes it through 500 ABs?

Ramirez is my best one-share guy followed by Jose Reyes and then Jean Segura further down the ladder a bit.

THIRD BASE

8	Carlos Santana
4	Josh Donaldson
2	Pedro Alvarez
2	Alex Rodriguez

I guess when you get a guy in eight leagues, you aren’t going to be too diverse at that position. Third base is my least-diversified position with just a pair of guys in 3+ leagues (every other position has at least three), but that’s because my top breakout hitter is there and so I did what I could to get him just a lot. In my Bold Predictions, I said Santana can be the top 3B with a big 34 HR season. Further, my penchant for OBP leagues made Santana a prime target. He’s on 53% of my teams where I could get him.

Donaldson is another guy I’m very high on, but his cost was a few rounds higher than Santana’s so it was tough to get him quite as much. I’m among those who see a return to prominence for Alvarez, maybe not all the way back to 36 HRs, but upper-20s for sure. Collette and I gambled on A-Rod in the 26th round of mixed LABR with pick 387. By the end of draft season, he was averaging a draft position of 272nd so we got in on the ground floor.

My love for Santana meant I had to bypass my other hot corner favorite (and everyone else’s, honestly): Nolan Arenado. I wasn’t skunked, though, I still got a single share. I would have liked to get three or four, but as he passed Santana in ADP, I decided to wait since I have such high hopes for Santana.

I also got a share of Kyle Seager, Chris Davis, and Ryan Zimmerman. Third base was very deep this year so I was happy to get a piece of Manny Machado, Nick Castellanos, and Matt Carpenter, too.

OUTFIELD

5	Justin Upton
5	Anthony Gose
5	Rajai Davis
5	Seth Smith
4	Mookie Betts
4	Jason Heyward
4	Shin-Soo Choo
4	Dexter Fowler
4	Rusney Castillo
3	George Springer
3	Curtis Granderson
3	Marcell Ozuna
3	Alejandro De Aza
3	Michael Taylor
3	Steven Souza
2	Yasiel Puig
2	Bryce Harper
2	Corey Dickerson
2	Melky Cabrera
2	A.J. Pollock
2	Denard Span
2	Adam Eaton
2	Austin Jackson
2	Oswaldo Arcia
2	Michael Choice
2	Randal Grichuk

With most leagues requiring five outfielders for the starting lineup, it’s no surprise that I wound up with 26 guys on at least a pair of teams. That said, I still had my guys I gravitated toward and I’m thrilled that my highest-rostered outfielder (or at least tied for highest) is a blue-chip asset in Upton. The move to San Diego and the silly notion shared by too many that he has somehow underperformed in his career because he doesn’t have a shelf of MVP trophies or something depressed his price a bit and turned what should’ve been a clear second round asset into a third rounder. Good, more for me!

I didn’t realize I was so invested in the Tigers CF platoon. Part of that is obviously my fandom for that wonderful team, but also the fact that I rarely draft speed early so I was trolling for rabbits late in the game when Gose and Rajai were available. I was pleased when the Tigers traded for Gose because I feel like there’s more in his bat than we’ve seen to date. He’s still rostered for speed, but some bat upside made him a late target.

Betts was a late addition to the list of guys I really wanted in multiple spots. I didn’t draft him in any league until March 28th, but then still wound up with him in four leagues. I honestly wouldn’t be made if that total was higher. While there is plenty of hype around Betts, I don’t think he got into that overhyped realm at any point, unlike Kris Bryant. There is still Betts skeptics out there, but I’m not one of them. His speed and AVG alone are worth a top 100 pick, but there is actually some pop in the bat, too, which takes him out of that Ben Revere mold.

Heyward, Choo, and Fowler are not only longtime favorites of mine, but also highlight my tendency toward OBP leagues where all three receive a significant boost. I found Castillo’s price too enticing to pass up, especially after the news that Shane Victorino would start the season in right. I still think Castillo will get his time and excel when it comes.

I’m sure the biggest upset here is that I only have Granderson in three leagues. Unfortunately, I’ve made so many of you aware to the fact that he’s the game’s best player that his price has jumped as a result. I still got him in a quarter of possible leagues, though, including a couple of my bigger ones so he can still have a significant impact on my season performance.

The elite upside of Puig and Harper made them musts in a couple leagues apiece. Meanwhile, I found guys like Cabrera, Pollock, Eaton, and Jackson undervalued given their skillsets. I think I will mine a lot of surplus value from eight picks.

The outfield is tough because there are so many quality assets. Thankfully I was still able to get a lot of the superstars at least once including: Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gomez, Jose Bautista, and Michael Brantley. Obviously I’d love to have more of each, but the top two guys either require sheer luck of draft spot or a major chunk of your auction budget. I didn’t get much of the former and I just refused to overpay with the latter.

There were several middle-tier outfielders that I would’ve loved to get in more leagues, but it just didn’t happen. First, a couple guys that I’m sure you expected to see at least a 2 next to on the list: Yoenis Cespedes and J.D. Martinez. I absolutely love Martinez. He has become one of my favorite players, but I came up short when it came to investing in him.

I’m particularly bummed about it because one of the reasons I think I came up short is because I don’t see a great OBP from him as he doesn’t look to be a major walks guy and I’m betting against a .315 AVG again. However, I consistently built strong OBP bases in the early rounds of my drafts, but where I erred was leveraging that OBP surplus in the early rounds to take high quality assets later who might be a bit OBP-deficient.

Even if Martinez sinks all the way to something in the .310s (career .319), I could’ve easil covered that with guys like Votto and Heyward ahead of him and Martinez’s power would’ve made up for the fact that neither of those OBP studs are guaranteed for 25+. Cespedes isn’t much different, maybe just a more extreme version since he’s got just a .298 OBP in the last two seasons and Martinez has at least shown some OBP potential (albeit driven by that big AVG) more recently. On the bright side, I’m not a super-homer who just blindly drafts Tigers for fun.

Speaking of the Tigers, one of their former players is another guy I wish I had more stock in this year: Avisail Garcia. I consider myself high on him, but I guess not that high with just a single share. Maybe it’s for the better with Garcia specifically as I have a knack for being a year early on players. So yeah, y’all can deal with the ups and downs of his first full season this year and then I’ll get the major breakout in 2016. Yeah, let’s go with that. Eat it, suckers.

Others I got just the once, but would’ve been plenty happy to get a couple shares of include: Leonys Martin, Jorge Soler, and Jay Bruce. Martin fans aren’t quite as vocal as some contingents backing up-and-comers, but there seems to be at least two in every league so I just kept getting snaked on him. I was just late to the Soler party.

I really became enamored after seeing him in Arizona during the Fangraphs trip, but couldn’t find a way to get him more than once. Part of that was the fact that he was kept in several leagues so he wasn’t even available in all 12 leagues where I could roster NLers. With Bruce, I was far from the only one seeing a bounce back so he wasn’t going at much of a discount despite his wretched 2014.

So reviewing the offense, I ended up with 22 guys in at least four leagues:

8	Santana
6	R.Martin
6	Alcantara
5	J.Upton
5	Votto
5	S.Castro
5	Jaso
5	B.Miller
5	Gose
5	R.Davis
5	S.Smith
4	Donaldson
4	Betts
4	Heyward
4	Choo
4	Fowler
4	Moss
4	R.Castillo
4	Grandal
4	Mauer
4	Valbuena
4	Crawford

These guys are likely going to have a large impact on the fate of my 2015 season, especially those in the upper tiers at their respective positions. Honestly, even a full flameout from Alcantara wouldn’t really kill me despite how heavily invested I am because he didn’t have a price tag that requires him to perform to pay off.
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I was going to run through every position, but this has gotten quite lengthy so my pitchers will come out on Tuesday of next week.