My 2015 AL-Only Tout Wars Team

My inaugural season in the famed AL-Only Tout Wars league didn’t work out very well last year. Although my team heading out of the draft was heavy on OBP (not by design, but because those turned out to be the most undervalued hitters), I ended up finishing just ninth in the category, en route to a pathetic 10th place finish. My offense was decimated by injuries and despite spending $205 of my $260 budget on hitting, I tallied just 28 of 60 possible hitting points. So after a disappointing first showing, did I plan to do anything differently this time around? Yes, but the strategic change was rather minor.

We all gathered in a private room at a restaurant in NYC on Saturday and just after 9 am, the auction was off. As a strict value guy, I never, ever come into a snake draft or auction with a set strategy. I don’t plan for value range slots or target specific players or do anything else that people have in mind when they ask what your strategy heading into the draft/auction is. I come in with my calculated dollar values derived from my projections and that’s it. The goal is always to collect as much value as possible by buying as many players for as much of a discount as I can get them, without going overboard in any one category of course.

As discussed in The Great Valuation System Test: The Divisive Players, the valuation system I use, REP, boosts high OBP guys and punishes low OBP guys more than every other valuation system. Though it feels like the proper way of valuing a ratio category, I really do not know for sure if it actually is. Because of this valuation methodology difference, I ended up winning the bidding on a bunch of empty OBP guys in last year’s Tout auction, such as John Jaso, Daniel Nava and Yunel Escobar. It also resulted in me paying $35 for Shin-Soo Choo. Not again.

This time, I decided I would shy away from these types, such as Joe Mauer, who don’t contribute a whole lot in the counting stats, even if they did come at a marginal discount. Given the flukiness of BABIP, which directly feeds into OBP, I wanted to ensure I bought enough power and speed. But I obviously wasn’t going to ignore OBP, especially since my values were allocated with the same money from the category as the others.

As the auction sprinted along, I found myself in a position I don’t believe I have ever been in — I was spending early and often, and spending a lot! I’m used to sitting back for the first hour, perhaps buying a player or two at most, and waiting for the bargains to appear as the early names usually go at or above my value. Instead, I was finding small discounts on top tier names, which I took advantage of, knowing that I’d likely benefit from additional discounts on the mid and low-mid tier guys as well. At various points, I must have been the low or close to the low guy in the room in money left. I had to slow down and stay out of the bidding, which is not something I’m used to doing. It ended up hurting over the last hour as there were some great bargains I couldn’t bid on, including Travis Snider, who mindbogglingly went for just $3.

In the end, I am extremely happy with how everything turned out, though I made two major mistakes I’ll discuss below. I spent $202 on offense (77.7%) and just $57 on pitching, a typical split in my auction history. I thought this was significantly more than I spent on hitting last year, but it was actually less! I spent $205 on hitting then, so hopefully this year’s offense performs like it’s paid to.

The Winning Team:

C – Russell Martin, $19
C – Alex Avila, 8
1B – Prince Fielder, 28
3B – Jose Iglesias, 1
CI – Ike Davis, 5
2B – Devon Travis, 1
SS – Hanley Ramirez, 28
MI – Josh Rutledge, 5
OF – Jose Bautista, 37
OF – Mookie Betts, 24
OF – Desmond Jennings, 16
OF – Steven Souza, 16
Util – Steve Pearce, 13
SW – David DeJesus, 1
P – R.A. Dickey, 10
P – Scott Kazmir, 9
P – Wade Miley, 7
P – CC Sabathia, 5
P – Nate Karns, 1
P – Adam Warren, 1
P – Koji Uehara, 15
P – Sean Doolittle, 8
P – Kevin Jepsen, 1
B – Brandon Guyer
B – Logan Forsythe
B – A.J. Griffin
B – Colby Lewis

C – Russell Martin, $19 | C – Alex Avila, 8

Both Martin and Avila receive substantial boosts from the move to OBP. I said I wouldn’t be buying empty OBP, which meant avoiding guys like Jaso and Ryan Hanigan, but Both Martin and Avila should supply power and respectable RBI/R totals. Martin was my highest valued catcher. Although his BABIP is going to drop, bringing his OBP along with it, the park and lineup switch should be a boon to his fantasy value. Oh, and he’s expected to hit second, between Jose Reyes and Jose Bautista, which is a prime spot for his RBI/R totals.

1B – Prince Fielder, 28 | CI – Ike Davis, 5

I assure you that I’m projecting nowhere near a full Fielder bounceback. In fact, I’m forecasting just 23 home runs! Yet, my total projected line still valued him at $30. I was extremely happy to get my second most valuable first baseman at a slight discount. There’s obviously risk here as no one knows exactly how he’ll rebound from his surgery. But there is also clear upside that could push his value into the $35-$40 range.

I knew I was probably more bullish on Davis than most others and I drafted him in LABR as well. I’m hoping his current back issue turns out to be nothing, as that’s always a worrisome injury. Davis gets a nice boost in OBP leagues and will get strong side platoon at-bats. I think he was a bargain at just $5, especially if he is over his Valley Fever symptoms, and those were to be blamed for his lack of power.

3B – Jose Iglesias, 1

Mistake #1. We were in the latter quarter of the auction and at this point, I needed to fill both my 2B and 3B slots. Additional context is that given my current roster, I was a bit light on speed and wanted to lean toward acquiring players that could help in that category. I wanted to make sure I got the 2B highest in my values without having to overpay. So I felt it would be shrewd to throw out some shortstops in order to fill other owners’ MI slots (I believe only one other owner needed to fill his 2B slot at the time) so I could get the second baseman I was gunning for while avoiding a bidding war.

I figured that a full-time SS like Iglesias would surely entice a $2 bid, so I threw him out for a buck on my nomination. Crickets. My face must have gone beet red. I just bought Iglesias and I had presumed at this point he would have to slot into my Utility slot. JOSE IGLESIAS WAS MY UTILITY BAT! I then checked back on my sheet and realized he also had third base eligibility. Hooray! So I moved him there, got my 10 projected steals, and felt slightly less bad at my screw up.

Before nominating Iglesias, there were four third basemen left with positive value, three of which I was totally cool with rostering. Luckily, all four of them ended up going for well above my value, so I likely would have had to either overpay (which I hate doing) or find myself in the same situation, eventually realizing Iglesias might be my best option. So although I wish I gave myself the option, it kind of worked out in the end, even if at the moment I’m getting no power from my third baseman.

2B – Devon Travis, 1 | SS – Hanley Ramirez, 28 | MI – Josh Rutledge, 5

Travis was the second baseman I was targeting when I made the Iglesias screw up. He’s competing for the second base job in Toronto, but his position in the battle was up in the air when we auctioned. There was a very real possibility he opened the season in the minors, but I was willing to take that risk. Luckily, yesterday morning it was reported that Maicer Izturis, who may have been leading the competition, will miss the start of the season with a groin injury. That leaves Travis to fight Ryan Goins. Travis has nary an at-bat at the Triple-A level, but makes good contact, takes a walk, and possesses both power and speed. He’ll easily earn his dollar in even a half season’s worth of at-bats. So winning the full-time job could yield some serious profit.

Hanley was nominated early, is set to hit clean-up in a loaded Red Sox lineup, and was a bit cheaper than my value. Once again, I was thrilled to get an elite player at less than full price. Now I just have to cross my fingers that he remains healthy all year.

I liked Rutledge as a sleeper when he was in Colorado, but now less so in Anaheim. He’s technically competing for the every day second base job, but I would be shocked if he didn’t win it. He’ll contribute a little bit of power and speed and gain eligibility at second so he’ll qualify at both middle infield spots.

OF – Jose Bautista, 37 | OF – Mookie Betts, 24 | OF – Desmond Jennings, 16 | OF – Steven Souza, 16

Bautista was my first purchase and I was very proud of myself for pulling the trigger. I don’t think I’ve ever spent $40 on a player and don’t often spend in the upper $30s either, if ever. It’s even riskier in a mono league as the free agent pool is laughable, so an injury to your high priced star hurts even more. But not only does Bautista experience a value surge due to OBP, he’s awesome in the counting stats as well! He’s also a non-zero in steals, which is cool.

I love me some Betts, as I bet on him in LABR as well. His torrid spring, along with Rusney Castillo’s early injury, seemingly cemented the starting center field job and lead-off slot for him. Given his vast swath of skills and projected value produced for the Red Sox, I can’t imagine the team is going to have any excuse to pull him from the lineup at any point.

No particular reason for buying Jennings, it was just at a point in the auction where I needed an outfielder, the bidding stopped short of my value, and I went the extra buck. He is no longer a standout in any one category, but does enough with his power and speed combination that produces solid overall value.

It seemed that the Souza hype had gotten out of control, enough so that I had to double check my projection to make sure I wasn’t too pessimistic. So it kind of surprised me that I won the bidding here, but perhaps not too much given his strong minor league walk rates. That’s right, it’s another OBP boost! It’s clear that there’s a big divide on how he is expected to perform. The Fans are calling for a robust .350 OBP, while both Steamer and ZiPS are at .313 and .304, respectively. That’s a big difference! I’m at .326 myself, which as usual, sits between the Fans and the computer projections.

Util – Steve Pearce, 13

To be perfectly honest, any projection for Pearce is a complete guess. He’s hit well at the minor league level before, but until last season, had done little at the Major League level. My projection is slightly less optimistic than the Fans, though with a couple more home runs, so it’s not like I’m overly bullish. But for $13, a healthy amount of regression is already baked in and there’s still room for ample profit. I don’t think there’s much downside at this price unless he completely collapses, something I guess there’s a non-zero chance of happening, but is unlikely in my eyes.

SW – David DeJesus, 1

(because there’s a serious dearth of hitters available in the free agent pool, several years ago Tout Wars eliminated an OF slot and added a Swingman slot, which could be filled by a hitter or a pitcher)

Welcome to mistake #2. Remember the series of events that resulted in my acquisition of Iglesias? I obviously didn’t learn my lesson. When it was my time for me to nominate, I wasn’t really prepared and quickly scanned my list of top OFers to throw out. I wanted to nominate someone I didn’t want in order to fill someone else’s slot since I didn’t have much money left. I figured DeJesus was a safe option to go for at least $2. I was wrong. I then realized I had somehow projected him for 450 at-bats (the same as our Depth Charts say), but I don’t see how he’s going to accumulate that many. That projection error boosted his value and may have ultimately caused me to throw him out rather than another outfielder that would have induced a $2 bid.

Since this is the SW slot, I won’t be forced into finding an OF replacement, so I expect this spot to churn quite a bit all season.

P – R.A. Dickey, 10 | P – Scott Kazmir, 9 | P – Wade Miley, 7 | P – CC Sabathia, 5 | P – Nate Karns, 1 | P – Adam Warren, 1

Who wouldn’t be excited by a pitching staff led by ace Dickey?! This group might cause some to throw up a little in their mouths. I’m used to it. When you only spend $57 on your pitching staff in a mono league, it’s unlikely to look pretty. But remember that the top tier of starting pitchers in the American League has shrunk, as many of them departed to the National League, while others found their way to the disabled list. That resulted in Dickey being my eighth most valuable starter and Kazmir the 11th!

Dickey is routinely undervalued, and I’m not sure exactly why. His 200+ innings boosts his value by adding wins and strikeouts, which seems to be underappreciated. Kazmir has been coming at a serious discount due to his poor second half. But split stats have been proven to have no predictive value, so I’ll gladly continue to purchase him on the cheap. I have no particular affinity for Miley, but his strikeout rate spiked last year, his SIERA was a career low at 3.67, he induces lots of grounders and he moves to a team expected to trot out a strong defense.

Sabathia! I drafted him in LABR, boldly predicted he would rebound to earn top 40 starting pitcher value and am liking him more and more as the spring progresses. Yesterday, he was hitting 93 mph with his fastball, another tick up from his previous outing. That’s extremely encouraging.

Karns and Warren will open the season in the Rays and Yankees rotations, respectively, and have the potential to post solid skills with a sub-4.00 ERA. I particularly like Karns for his strikeout ability and given how the Rays rotation has been ravaged by injury, he could stay there for a while.

P – Koji Uehara, 15
P – Sean Doolittle, 8
P – Kevin Jepsen, 1

I was fairly certain I would end up with Uehara, who I also bought in last year’s auction. The majority of closers went in the $16-$17 range, with the top guys about $19 and the low $20 range. I was very pleased to get who I think is one of the top closers, if healthy, for cheaper than most everyone else with a guaranteed job. It sounds like he’ll be fine for opening day after his injury scare and he still possesses the skills to post strong ratios and get the job done.

I thought Doolittle was given far too great an injury discount. I guess there’s no guarantee he gets his closer job back when he returns, but if he does, I should have two strong closers to rack up saves.

Did I miss the announcement that Brad Boxberger would close while Jake McGee is on the disabled list for the Rays? Nope, because it was never made. Everyone assumes Boxberger will be the guy, but maybe he won’t be. Perhaps they even just use a committee. Jepsen enjoyed a skills breakout last season as he introduced a fantastic changeup and threw his good curve ball more often, while still flashing an excellent mid-90s fastball. If the Rays prefer to go with a veteran, he could be the guy they turn to.

B – Brandon Guyer | B – Logan Forsythe | B – A.J. Griffin | B – Colby Lewis

As the reserve snake draft began, I had marked off Chris Young, Justin Ruggiano and Guyer as options for my first pick to start over DeJesus. After some thinking, I eventually decided I wanted Ruggiano, followed by Young and then Guyer. So naturally, both of my top choices were taken before my pick and I had to settle on Guyer. It didn’t dawn on me until after the auction that OMG I OWN 4 RAYS OUTFIELDERS! Thrown in Karns, Jepsen and Forsythe and it looks like I’m becoming a Rays fan this year.

Forsythe is my insurance should Travis open the year in the minors. I wanted Rickie Weeks instead, but he was also taken in the first round before my pick. Griffin was one of those “well, do I draft a guaranteed POS starter projected for a 4.00+ ERA, or do I fill one of my unlimited DL slots with an injured guy who at least has the potential to post a sub-4.00 ERA when he eventually return this summer?” pick. With unlimited DL slots, I’ll simply place Griffin there and pick up another player. I guess Lewis was that POS starter though! But I do like him marginally, as his SIERA was nearly a full run below his actual ERA. A reversal of that strikeout rate decline would be cool.