More Home Run Surprises

I’m finally back from my two week Slovenia/Croatia jaunt (feel free to discuss the wonders of either of those countries in the comments) and what else does one write about when not totally in the loop? More home run surprises, of course! I continue to be in shock at some of the home run total, so let’s discuss more of them.

Just like last time, I will include relevant metrics that could explain the driving force behind the home run surge.

Remember when Jean Segura (17 HRs) hit 11 first half homers back in 2013? Then he hit just one the rest of the season and most chalked up the first half as a complete power fluke. The non-believers were proven right, as Segura then hit just 11 homers total over the next two seasons. But here he is now with 17 homers, confusing us once again. His home run spike has been the result of a marginal, but meaningful, increase in his fly ball rate, but mostly it’s because he’s simply hitting the ball hard, as evidenced by that nice jump in exit velocity. That has fueled a HR/FB rate surge, a mark that has more than doubled. At age 26, he’s young enough to believe this is real, but I’m sure the vast majority of projections will forecast a step back to about 10 next season, taking the conservative approach. I cannot say right now which side I’ll be on.

Jake Lamb (28 HRs) is another Diamondback that makes our surprise list, as his HR/FB rate has tripled, thanks to the largest rise in exit velocity in the group. It’s apparently thanks to a change in his swing, so at least we could point to a clear explanation for his newfound success. Of course, a 20%+ HR/FB rate is elite and mighty difficult to sustain. Since he strikes out a lot, he’s going to be a popular bust candidate next year.

Yasmany Tomas (29 HRs) makes three of our six surprises Diamondbacks hitters! Last year, Tomas was a popular bust pick as the second coming of Dayan Viciedo. The naysayers were right, as he was terrible both offensively and defensively. While he’s still awful with the glove, he’s now hitting, though the only thing that has really improved at the plate is his power. His fly ball rate jumped above 30%, while his HR/FB rate rose above 20%, combining to a more than tripling of his home run total. With a high strikeout rate, Tomas is in a similar boat to Lamb and it would be silly to project another mid-20% HR/FB rate next year. So he’s going to be faced with the prospect of regression there, and if he’s not hitting home runs, he’s not helping the Diamondbacks. So a spot on the bench will always be lurking until he finds himself on an American League team as the designated hitter.

When you’re surprised by a player’s home run total that you actually own, then you know things have gone swimmingly. Rougned Odor (31 HRs) may be the only thing that has gone right on my pathetic Tout Wars team this year, but I didn’t even realize he had exceeded the 30 home run level. Perhaps this isn’t so shocking after he hit 13 homers in the final three months of last season, but most figured him for 20 homers, 25 tops. Interestingly, he has actually struck out more this year, while hitting the same rate of fly balls. So it’s been all about that HR/FB rate spike, driven by a jump in exit velocity. The good news is that even if his HR/FB rate regresses a bit next year, which is what I’m sure most will presume it does, he has a shot to offset that decline by getting his strikeout rate back to 2015 levels. Unfortunately, it’s possible he’s selling out for power, as he’s become allergic to the walk and is swinging at everything.

All it took was some Yankee Magic for Starlin Castro (21 HRs) to set a new career high in homers and exceed the 20 mark for the first time. Like Odor, he’s striking out more than ever, while hitting about the same rate of fly balls. So it’s all in the HR/FB rate, which has almost doubled from last year, and is in the double digits for just the second time. Castro has a stark home/away HR/FB rate split, but only one of his homers at Yankee Stadium has benefited from the short right field porch, going a mere 332 feet to the right field foul pole. I think many believed Castro would eventually develop this kind of power, so perhaps he’ll be good for another 20 next year.

Freddy Galvis (20 HRs, including last night) was actually the inspiration behind yet another one of these posts. FREDDY GALVIS HAS 20 HOMERS, WHAAAAAAAAAAAT?! That’s exactly what I was thinking before I started typing this article. He has nearly tripled his total from last year and now has just one less over these 582 plate appearances than he had in his previous 1,153 plate appearances. It’s all about a tripling of his HR/FB rate from last year, although in his short stints with the Phillies going back to 2012, he had flirted with a double digit HR/FB rate at times. Galvis’ exit velocity is still a bit below league average and easily the lowest in the group. And even with this added power, his wOBA is still just about the same as last year! He’s yet another 26 year old on this list, so we cannot automatically bet against this power spike.