Mock Draft: Punting Average
I participated in a 12-team mixed mock draft last night hosted by Baseball Digest Daily. I had the 10th pick and my strategy going in was to punt AVG and draft starting pitchers earlier than I normally would. My roster ended up like this:
Tim Lincecum (ADP 12)
Ian Kinsler (15)
Jason Bay (26)
Justin Verlander (44)
Nelson Cruz (64)
Carlos Pena (75)
Matt Wieters (96)
Gordon Beckham (94)
Ubaldo Jimenez (104)
Jay Bruce (118)
Carlos Marmol (139)
Elvis Andrus (158)
Carlos Gonzalez (122)
Scott Baker (155)
Brett Anderson (170)
Julio Borbon (187)
Chad Qualls (220)
Adam LaRoche (231)
Casey McGehee (221)
Mike Gonzalez (188)
Russ Branyan (computer problems and it went to auto pick – 217)
Homer Bailey (279)
Carlos Santana (320)
Punting AVG is something I never do in real drafts and I was pleasantly surprised by the offense I was able to amass. In hindsight I think perhaps I drafted Wieters and Marmol too high but I am pretty happy with the upside that this team possesses. Of course by punting AVG you also run the risk of finishing near the bottom in R, which would probably go a long way to determining the success of the strategy.
For those in the crowd who do punt AVG, please weigh in with your wisdom on what needs to be done to make this strategy successful.
Well, lots of those guys aren’t even necesserily going to hurt your average….other than Carlos Pena I don’t really see anyone who’s a lock to have a bad average…nice draft.
Thanks R M.
While there may not be many anchors, very few of these players project to be average for their position in AVG.
Using the Bill James projections, only two of these players are going to have an AVG over .290 — Wieters and Borbon. Three in the .280s, Six in the .270s, one in the .260s, one in the .240s and one in the .230s.
Some of the young players could certainly improve on these but it wouldn’t surprise me if Wieters didn’t hit .311 or Bobon hit .308, either.
I just don’t think a .275 AVG is going to finish higher than 10-11 in a competitive league.