MLB DFS Pitching Preview: May 10, 2021

Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.

Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

None of these players are great pitchers. There are none on this slate. We measure pitchers relative to the other pitchers on the slate. And that’s it. So, if a play feels too gross to play, take the night off before playing what you feel is bad chalk.

TIER ONE — CHALK: Mahle and Wood

If you’re reading this for me to tell you who will score more fantasy points between Tyler Mahle and Alex Wood, you’ve come to the wrong place. We don’t really play like that here. I’m here to report that of the two, Wood will pretty drastically much higher owned on FD and very similarly owned on DK, where we play two pitchers. That Wood projects slightly better, but both project very high.

Wood has a slight edge in projection and a huge edge in the strikeout matchup; Mahle the sizable edge in FD ownership, despite a similarly great situation for run prevention.

On DK, we can play whomever we want or even play them both. For FD, we have a tougher decision. Wood has an 8.61/1.96/0.78 three true outcome slash (TTO) through this season; whereas Mahle has the huge strikeout edge with a 12.03/3.23/1.47 TTO, but continues the control and power prevention issues he’s always carried with left-handed hitters. And we’ll focus on this season between these two because Wood’s 2019-20 data is morphed by injury and Mahle’s escalation in velocity and elimination of the curveball has just made him into a different pitcher. It’s terrible to deal in small samples, but we’re splitting hairs here.

Wood comes off as safer because of the huge edge in control and power prevention that’s consistent with when Wood was a great pitcher a few year ago. The problem with this power edge is that Mahle faces a Pirates team that has no power in an extreme pitchers’ park. Mahle’s coughed up 1.92 HR/9 to left-handed hitters over his career; the Pirates only have one left-handed hitter — Bryan Reynolds — with a barrel rate over 7.0% since 2020 and PNC Park carries a home run factor of 86. So, there’s little to fear in Mahle for the ownership edge. And there’s no such thing as “safe” in fantasy baseball.

Ownership disparity is more drastic in single-entry tournaments, so expect an enormous edge for Mahle in those contests on FD. Expect Wood-Mahle to be a huge chalk duo on DK.

TIER TWO — LEVERAGE: Weaver

Luke Weaver is a similarly average pitcher than Mahle with a tighter range of outcomes than Wood. On one hand, he has as low of a blowup factor as both Mahle and Wood, if not better than both, but his ceiling is pretty low and the roof will be open at Chase Field for this one. That said, the Marlins’ projected lineup has a 24.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers and only a .149 ISO.

On FD, Weaver’s price brings him really close to Mahle in projected ownership, but Wood and Mahle are expected to carry nearly double the ownership on DK. Anything beyond single-entry, we should be seeking out leverage over the Wood-Mahle lineup with shots at a Weaver. A lot of shots at Weaver.

TIER THREE — MAXIMUM LEVERAGE: Gibson

The matchup sucks for Kyle Gibson — and Kyle Gibson kinda’ sucks. But if we’re being told that he’ll be under 5% on FD, we should want him in our player pool, if we’re playing ten — let alone 15 — lineups. He projects really well, according to THE BAT, as the Giants aren’t a huge departure from the Pirates and Marlins for Mahle and Weaver. The Giants have a 24.1% strikeout rate to right-handed pitchers with only a .155 ISO. Mahle and Weaver clearly have better matchups and they’re better pitchers, but at a fraction of the ownership, ignoring Gibson is a bad mistake to play in MME play.

Stats cited are since the 2019 season, unless otherwise noted. Park factors via EV Analytics. Projected ownership via RotoGrinders.