Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Thames, Gray, & 10-Day DL Rant
Current Trade Value: Eric Thames
The industry’s “Buy Low/Sell High” talk frustrates me because 90% of the time no context is given. Owners should expect to get some players at a discount but what are the player’s owners expecting and valuing in a rebound.
Ryan Zimmerman seems to be a sell high candidate. He’s having a great season with a .420 AVG and 11 HR. Pretty much everyone expects him to regress. But how much regression? Don’t guess. Do a little research and see how other fantasy owners value him by checking on actual trades.
The best source I’ve found to track 1-for-1 trades is Yahoo’s Trade Market. The site has a major limitation: only trades from that day are listed so it’s best to check in the evening. I will do a quick analysis of the league’s other hot hitter, Eric Thames.
Yesterday, I found Thames was traded straight up for Aroldis Chapman, Khris Davis, and Stephen Strasburg. Thames’s ADP was 182 or around a 15 round value. The other three had ADPs of 46 (Chapman), 50 (Strasburg), and 102 (Davis). They average out to around 66 with the two 50’s pointing to a possible higher value.
The players taken around 66 overall were Kyle Seager, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Carrasco, and Kyle Hendricks. Good but not elite players. It’s still a huge move up for Thames.
Today, a challenge trade came through with Thames netting Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion came off the around 26th overall but his 4 HR and .200 AVG start have hurt his perceived value. While it is just one trade and I could make a decent case for Encarnacion’s overall value being around 50. I asked my Twitter followers (another great way to find out where people stand) which side they would take. The results were about even with each side taking the lead throughout the day.
In a challenge trade, which side would you take:
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) May 1, 2017
I guess people see the pair having similar value and the trade makes sense. I like the Edwin side based on his historic, consistent production. At least now, there is some reference for trade discussion.
Notes
• Transactions in my industry leagues
TDGX (20-team, 40-man rosters)
Added Jeremy Hazelbaker and Jose Osuna. I needed at-bats with player’s flying to the DL and underperforming. I have a little more faith Osuna contributing in the future but both are fill-ins at this point.
Tout Wars (15-team, mixed league)
Added Erick Aybar and Arodys Vizcaino. I lost David Freese and Shelby Miller this week to the DL (no one else has returned) so I added Erick Aybar and Arodys Vizcaino (both must start this week). Aybar is a replacement level talent in the league (others position players purchased were Whit Merrifield, Eddie Rosario, Matt Davidson, and Ben Gamel). As for Vizcaino, I am still hunting for Saves. I have little faith in Jim Johnson to stay competitive and/or healthy.
Almost all my moves involve dealing with injured players. Last week in Tout Wars, I guessed wrong and lost David Freese for the week with a hamstring issue. This week I have the same issue with Steven Souza Jr. who may or may not play with an injured hand. Also, Cody Bellinger will get demoted when Joc Pederson maybe returns sometime this week. Logan Forsythe may return sometime early this week. Disabled list transactions are keeping players cycling on and off my roster. It’s a ton of unknowns.
I think every owner deals with injuries but MLB teams seem to be extra cautious this year and are using the 10-day DL more regularly. In 2016, there were 209 transactions to and from the DL while the number is up to 270 this year. A jump of 30%. While the DL transactions are up, the number of days have only increased by 8% (3892 days to 4198 days). I have seen some talk where people think more DL slots are needed. I am not sure.
I expect players to cycle on and off the DL at an increased rate. The DL slots will be more of a transient slot than a stash slot for long term injuries.
• Sonny Gray (back) returns for a two-start week. Here’s all that can determine on is talent at this point. His velocity (from Brooksbaseball.net) last year averaged 93.7 mph. This spring, it was at 93.9 mph. Here are some reports from his rehab starts.
April 22nd start
Sonny Gray sure looks ready to be back in Oakland. Was around 92-94 MPH with his fastball while hitting 95 a few times. 5 IP 1 H 0 BB 6 SO
— Paul (@ThatsAnError) April 23, 2017
April 27th start
Bob Melvin & some of #Athletics were watching Sonny Gray throw rehab with Nashville. Melvin said Gray look "really good." Fastball 94 mph
— John Hickey (@JHickey3) April 28, 2017
Sonny Gray works a 1-2-3 4th inning. Looking good. Sitting 94 mph. 56 pitches, 38 strikes so far. @nashvillesounds lead 1-0. #Athletics
— Jeff Hem 🗣🎙🎧 (@JeffHemPBP) April 28, 2017
@BerniePleskoff what's your thoughts on sonny gray! 7 strikeout tonight rehab game hitting 94 mph
— Wiz Wit (@pierce_1978) April 28, 2017
Several different reports there with him both sitting and touching 94 mph. I think I would feel comfortable with him sitting at 93 mph which is a little down for him.
In his two minor league starts, he allowed no runs, struck out 13, and walked no one. He didn’t struggle with control.
I am usually fairly cautious with my starters until they make a start. If I was in a daily transaction league, I might wait until after Gray’s first start (vs. Detroit) to see how he performs. Otherwise, I think owners in weekly leagues need to roll the dice (his other start is at Minnesota) and start him this week.
• Stay away from Brandon Philips while he’s wrapping his groin like a burrito.
Brandon Phillips‘ left groin strain brought tears to his eyes, but the Braves second baseman vowed Thursday that the injury will not send him to the disabled list.
“I’m not going on the DL,” said Phillips, who was out of the lineup for Thursday afternoon’s game against the Mets. “That’s not going to happen. I’ll wrap it up, be like [a burrito.]”
If possible, don’t start him until he get the burrito removed.
• The Mariners started Chase De Jong Sunday with bad results (9 runs in 7.1 innings, more walks than strikeouts). DeJong’s fastball averaged 90.2 mph and touched 92 mph. Eric Longenhagen described DeJong in his preseason preview with the following description:
He sits 88-90 with the fastball and all of the secondaries are fringey, so there’s some doubt about how the stuff will play multiple times through the order, but DeJong throws enough strikes to profile as a competent sixth starter or swing man.
Eric didn’t give him individual grades but MLB.com did. Here are his comps (limited examples because of splitter in the pitch mix).
| Name | Year | Report Publication | Fastball | Curveball | Cutter/Screwball | Changeup/splitter | Control/Command |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase De Jong | 2017 | MLB | 50 | 55 | 45 | 45 | 55 |
| Cody Anderson | 2014 | MLB | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
| Tyler Beede | 2017 | BA | 55 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 2016 | 2080 | 55 | 45 | 45 | 55 | 55 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 2017 | MLB | 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Tyler Beede | 2017 | MLB | 60 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
| Carson Fulmer | 2017 | MLB | 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
| Jharel Cotton | 2016 | MLB | 60 | 45 | 45 | 60 | 50 |
| Alex Colome | 2014 | MLB | 65 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
| Rob Zastryzny | 2015 | 2080 | 55 | 40 | 45 | 55 | 40 |
I don’t see a reason to own him in any league. His only upside is if two of his secondary pitches leave the average zone and become plus.
• I touted Robert Gsellman coming into the season but he’s really struggled so far with a 6.23 ERA. He does have a higher than desirable walk rate (3.7 BB/9) but his strikeouts (9.1 K/9) and ground ball rate (57%) are decent. His struggles stem from the league’s second worse LOB% (52.5%). I expect Gsellman is hitting the waiver wire. Pick up now before his season turns around.
• Michael Brantley looks to be back to his pre-injury self except for his career high 21% K%. He may be trading some contact for power. It’s tough to tell. I didn’t expect much from Brantley this season and he is easily exceeding all my expectation of him.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
It looks like Gray actually has Minnesota first and Detroit second. Does this change things for you?
Yep, I would roll with Gray in daily transactions. Sano can only hit 3-4 home runs off him.
Thames for E5 sounds about right. I’ve always felt that E5 was an underrated fantasy player; it’s probably because the BA hovers in the .265 range, but the number of guys who can challenge the 210-220 R+RBI threshold with 40+ HR ability is pretty small. I’m not one for splits but at least casually, it *seems* like he does his cold start/hot finish routine with some regularity. I’m all in on Thames, though.
Ryan Zimmerman is tough. I remember in Tony G’s awesome Hitter Contact Quality series he identified Zimmerman as a guy whose batted ball profile hinted at upside in 2017, and it sure seems like that is coming to fruition. The hard part is looking at Zim’s last, like, 3 seasons and trying to reconcile how his 2017 start fits in. I lean towards buying high.
You make me feel confident in Gsellman and then I read about his drop in velocity and begin to doubt. I should listen to you, right?
One of the fun elements of Fantasy baseball is riding a hunch. Those of us fortunate to secure Thames in the off season, did so on a hunch. If we want to be entirely rational then of course we would consider improving our teams by trading him for a solid star like Encarnacion. But some of the fun is suspending rational thought and staying with the hunch. Roll that 7, one more time.
Now hang on a second. Pre-season, Thames was ZiPS-projected for a .346 wOBA. Not a fantasy stat, but a suggestion that he would be a darn good hitter. His projected fantasy stats looked an awful lot like Carlos Santana. According to Yahoo, he was going about 100 picks after Santana. If you used a ~10th round pick, and still expect him to outhit Santana, fine. But if you were like me, and the other people I know who took him, using a ~20th round pick on a guy that ZiPS love isnt much of a hunch.
Yes, I agree with cmd. I wound up with Thames in 6 of my 6 leagues this year. Not because I loved him (I honestly knew nothing about him), but because I just blindly followed Steamer and ATC projections that had him as a top 50 hitter.
The increase in DL stints is pure economics: lower the cost of something and demand increases.
Not to veer too far off course, but you mention “adding DL spots.” What’s the logic behind limiting them in the first place? Is it simply being able to pick up and stash already-injured players? Is there not a setting to prevent adding straight to the DL?
I’m just curious. Seems like unlimited spots is the way to go, as teams hit hard by injuries just end up with an exaggerated penalty when there’s a limit (play short-handed or cut). I’ve never been able to grasp how having a bunch of injured players that aren’t playing is some kind of advantage.