Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Spring Training Velocities, Gsellman, Davis, & Garrett

Spring Training Velocity Extravaganza

After my Tout Wars weekend, I found time to update the spring training velocities. Here are some pitchers seeing significant changes.

Cole Hamels

Hamels’s fastball average 91.5 mph on the 21st and down to 90.8 mph on the 26th. Last season it averaged 92.6 mph. I would be diving in more on Hamels but his velocity starts low every season.

While he starts slow, owners should closely monitor his velocity to make sure it starts ticking up.

Jake Arrieta

I am less optimistic on Arrieta. He is seeing a similar drop in velocity to Hamels at ~2.0 mph.

Arrieta doesn’t increase his velocity and gaining 2 mph is tough to do. His owners need to closely watch his first MLB game to see if he can regain the lost velocity.

Robert Gsellman

I watched his spring training start yesterday and came away relieved. I know he pitched great at the end of 2016 but I had fear of a T.J. House-like breakdown*. I wanted to see Gsellman throw before going all in. Feel free to go all in. His stuff could push him into the top 20 pitchers, if not higher. His two fastballs sat at 93-95 mph with the 2-seamer generating a ton of groundballs. The 88-91 mph Warthen slider is just nasty. His curve is an average third pitch. Buy, buy, buy.

My only issues with him are a possible innings limit (130 IP in 2016). Additionally, the Mets will have a subpar infield defense and Gsellman could get BABIP’ed to death some starts.

Zack Burdi

Burdi’s throwing 99 mph bullets. With the White Sox looking to move David Robertson and possibly Nate Jones, Burdi has the chance to be the White Sox closer sooner rather than later. One issue Burdi has to get under control is his walks (5.1 BB/9 in AA and 6.2 BB/9 in AAA).

Danny Duffy

Duffy’s velocity is down 1.5 mph from last year. The drop isn’t a huge concern since he bumped up his velocity into the 96 mph range for 16 relief appearances. Over the last two months, he sat at 94 mph which puts his “drop” at only 0.7 which is completely reasonable.

Dillon Overton

For those unfamiliar with Overton, he averaged 88-90 mph in college while touching 95 mph. He had Tommy John surgery and has struggled since then with the Baseball America Handbook stating his velocity sat at 86-91 mph in 2016. It averaged 88 mph relieving in the majors. So, Overton sat at 91 mph on Saturday. He averaged 92.2 mph the week before. It is a near 4 mph jump. I am going to add him to my watch lists to see how the other pitches, curve and change, work with the fastball.

Greg Holland

Looks like Holland passed a test to possibly secure the closer’s role yesterday with back to back appearances. He maintained his velocity averaging 94.5 mph on the 27th and 94.1 mph yesterday.

Tyler Chatwood

His velocity is up ~2 mph but owners must remember he’s on the Rockies. He’s only useful for NL-only road starts in my opinion.

Hisashi Iwakuma

Iwakuma has been teetering on fantasy relevance for a few seasons but a fastball velocity drop to 86 mph could put the nail in the coffin. I am out in all formats. He could be at the point where middle relievers have more value.

Jake McGee

His velocity (95.1 mph) is back up to 2015 levels (94.5 mph) vice 2016 levels (93.1).

Rookies in the Reds rotation

Rookie Davis and Amir Garrett have been named the Reds’ third and fourth starters. I haven’t seen them pitch yet but I decided to find comparable pitching prospects to their 2017 grades. I will give an updated assessment in the near future.

While not ideal, the outlook for Garrett is better than Davis.

*In 2014, House broke on the scene with a velocity bump (+2 mph), nice groundball rate (>60%), and devastating slider and change (both over 16% SwStr%). It was all gone at the start of next season with his velocity down because of several injuries.