Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Scherzer & Fulmer

Player projection: Max Scherzer

He’s a stud. I don’t see any reason he won’t be the 2nd pitcher taken in 2017 drafts. There might even be a possible case to take Scherzer over Kershaw because of Kershaw’s recent health issues.

An eventual health issue is the only reason I could see for being leery of the 31-year-old. At RotoWire, I found the following chances for an ace pitcher breaking down from his ace status:

Age: Chance of still being an ace
26-29: 68%
30-32: 59%
33-37: 53%

Scherzer is in the middle of the 30-32 age group and has a decent chance for a decline. If an owner is worried about the eventual decline, maybe look to pick up a younger “Ace” who still puts up a ton of innings like Chris Sale (27-years-old, 226 IP) or Madison Bumgarner (26-years-old, 226 IP also)

Projection: 210 IP, 256 K’s, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 16 Wins

Player Projection: Michael Fulmer

Before I like to make a projection on a young pitcher, I also like to give a quick look at them. For Fulmer, I went with his July 27th start versus Boston because it was the last start for Fulmer a decent camera angle.

Thoughts

• His windup is generic. He goes right to the plate with a 3/4 release. In the Baseball America handbook, they had him throwing “slightly across his body”, but not anymore. Looking back at some old college video, he as completely revamped his once high energy delivery.
• Fastball: 93-96 mph. Fairly basic and straight. Besides the velocity, nothing special. He does have plus command of the pitch.
• Sinker: This pitch gets labeled as a sinker, but I wonder if it is a cutter. It doesn’t get any more sink than his regular fastball but does break the same way as his slider. It is tough to notice the difference between it and his regular fastball.
• Change: 85-88 mph, really similar to his slider but with release side run while the slider has some glove-side run. Has a nice late sink at times.
• Slider: 87-89 mph. It can be a wipeout slider, but he hung it a few too many times. Again, BA graded it as a 60 and as a “plus pitch with sharp two-plane break”. MLB.com calls the pitch a curve, grades it also at 60, and just describes it as “powerful”. During this game, it was average at best.

Ignore all previous scouting reports on him. He is a completely different pitcher with a dominating changeup (66 GB% and 19% SwStr%). I am sure he feel comfortable with his average slider (42% GB%, 13% SwStr%) but the changeup is his best pitch. Its dominance was on display more as the season went on as he tripled its usage from 6% in April to 19% in September.

I didn’t find any reason for his ERA (3.06) being under his ERA Estimators (~4.00). The regression was already happening during the season with a 2.11 ERA in the first half and a 3.94 ERA in the second half.

I am not 100% sold on him but I do think he could improve by throwing his breaking balls more consistently and using his changeup even more. For next season, I will go with the following projection for him.

Projection: 190 IP, 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 3.75 ERA, 10 Wins, 1.15 WHIP

Notes:

• I could see two players getting more draft love than expected based on their postseason performance, Javier Baez (.391/.417/.609) and Francisco Lindor (.350/.350/.700). For me, the pair’s performances help to justify their 2016 seasons, but that is about it. It is too early to know if owners will and by how much overpay, but their value is something I will track this offseason.

• Shawn Kelley was removed from game five of the Division Series with a lack of feeling in his hand.

Kelley, who has had Tommy John surgery twice, said that his right elbow was fine and that the issue was a nerve problem in his fingers.

“I got ready quick and it’s cool out there,” Kelley said. “I threw that slider to Turner. I felt some numbness going down my hand. It took a second to try to get some blood flowing to it. When I threw the next pitch to Gonzalez, I didn’t have any feeling in my fingers. It was tough to pitch.”

After the game, Kelley told manager Dusty Baker that he was getting some feeling back in his fingers.

He looked to be in a good position to take over as the Nationals closer, but they may need to go find some replacement if Kelley isn’t healthy.

• Here is the last report from Garrett Richards rehab.

Garrett Richards is sitting a consistent 95-96 with power cut life. Touched 98. Showing the hard 79-80 mph hook too. #Angels

— Josh Norris 🐻 (@jnorris427) October 13, 2016

It is nice to see the fastball velocity up into his normal range. I feel in 2017 he is going to be a draft steal or be completely useless and the results will 100% center around his health.

• The Pirates have a few too many corner infielders and they want John Jaso to try out third base.

If the Pirates keep Jaso, he could play a valuable part by moving to the other side of the infield and the corner-outfield spots.

He would effectively assume the role played this year by Matt Joyce (a fellow lefty-swinging corner outfielder) while taking over some of Sean Rodriguez’s responsibilities as an occasional third baseman and late-inning replacement at first base.

Jaso also could spell Bell or platoon with David Freese at first. At third, he could share time with Freese behind starter Jung Ho Kang, potentially creating an interesting four-way rotation that also includes shortstop Jordy Mercer.

I think there is some value to be gained in mix leagues by guessing correctly who ends up with a full-time job. Besides the above names, highly touted prospect Josh Bell is also in the first base mix. In deep leagues, I would stay away from all of them.

• Wilson Ramos will be out 6-8 months after having knee surgery. I think his value will be in leagues with a lot of DL slots where he can be benched for a couple of months and then used if he comes back healthy.