Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Kluber, Porcello, Wainwright, & Samardzija

Tout Wars Thoughts:

In Tout Wars, I am currently last in both ERA (5.32) and WHIP (1.58). I knew I would struggle in these two categories but this lack of production is about impossible to replicate. The culprits are:

Name: ERA, WHIP
Corey Kluber: 6.38, 1.42
Rick Porcello: 7.56, 1.74
Adam Wainwright: 7.24, 2.20
Jeff Samardzija: 6.16, 1.42

Two of my closers aren’t much better:
Blake Treinen: 6.00, 2.00
Ken Giles: 9.00, 1.80

I am going to be forced to stick with the closers but here are some thoughts on keeping or dumping the starters.

Corey Kluber (5.49 FIP, 4.04 xFIP)

Kluber’s main issue is giving up the long ball (2.4 HR/9). Both his FB% (43%) and Hard Hit Rate (50%) are at career highs. I would expect some regression but I am concerned because his velocity is down about 1 mph from his 2016 average.

As the chart shows, he had velocity issues to start 2016 and rebounded fine. That doesn’t mean the 31-year-old will do so again. His early season swinging strike rate is down to a career-low (10.1%). Even if his talent declines some, he’s going to be more talented than any waiver wire option. He may fall from ace status to #2/#3 starter territory.

Rick Porcello (5.39 FIP, 3.79 xFIP)

I knew Porcello was going to regress but not implode. He’s getting hit around with a 2.7 HR/9 and .385 BABIP. All of his pitches are taking a pounding except his slider. I’m not too worried because his SwStr% is at a career high (12.2%) and is K/9 is also trending up (9.7). Since becoming a flyball pitcher, he’s going to give up some home runs.He just needs to get his total closer to 1.0 HR/9.

If I didn’t own Porcello, I would maybe see if his owner would sell low. It’s worth a try.

Adam Wainwright (4.25 FIP, 4.10 xFIP)

Wainwright struggled in 2016 season and not much was expected from the 35-year-old this season. I didn’t expect much from him either when I picked him up in the reserve rounds. I figured I would drop him immediately for some other pitcher if he struggled.

I was encouraged after his first start when his fastball velocity was up a bit. The excitement was quickly eradicated. He’s gotten hit around (.458 BABIP) and I should have dug deeper than fastball velocity. When Wainwright has been productive, he his groundball rate was near 50%. In 2016, it dropped to 44% and it is only at 42% this season. The main reason is that his pitches, especially his curve are no longer breaking as much. Teams are hitting around his curve (vs wOBA .392 in ’17, .200 for career). If his curve isn’t fooling batters, he’s done. I will likely be trying to shop him or find a waiver wire replacement soon.

Jeff Samardzija (4.25 FIP, 2.60 xFIP)

I’m glad I investigated him. First, he’s changed his arsenal and has the pitch classification system all screwed up. He’s going with more 2-seamers (17% to 23%) and split finger (9% to 19%) and dropping his cutter (20% to 2%). The splitter is the difference maker with a 19% SwStr%.

He began these changes is the second half of 2016. Once he got the changes implemented in September, he posted a K/9 at 10.3 and 2.95 ERA. The changes have stuck with his K/9 at 11.4% and a 12.5% SwStr%. His 2017 struggles stem from a .347 BABIP and 1.9 HR/9 which should regress. I’ll take his new 11.4 K/9 …  I would even take one at ten. Like Porcello, the high ERA is masking some positive changes. Owners could try to buy low.

Notes

• Zach Lee is back in the majors. This one-time highly regarded prospect (Baseball American #1 Dodger in 2012), is back in the majors. I don’t think much shine exists from the high prospect status.

His biggest issue is that he never struck out many batters. As he got closer to the majors, his strikeout rate continued to drop. Last season with the Mariners’ Triple-A team, it sat at 6.1 K/9. No reasonable reason exists for owners to pick him up or continue to hold out hope for him.

• Tim Anderson will probably never post a decent on-base rate with his current plate discipline. He doesn’t care.

And despite having 125 strikeouts and 13 walks over 457 career plate appearances entering play Wednesday in Cleveland, pure patience is not necessarily going to be a virtue in his hitting vocabulary.

“That’s something for the people on the outside looking in,” said Anderson of the low walk rate. “If I start walking, they are going to say start hitting. If I don’t hit, they are going to say start walking. It has its pros and cons.

“It’s definitely nothing I pay attention to. At the end of the day, I’m in the box to help the team win.”

The low on-base rate is really going to limit his stolen base potential.