Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Hernandez, Arrieta, & Others

• Sorry for the lack of material as I am continually dealing with my basement taking on ground water after a flood last Friday. I sort of have the situation under control, but I see my work being sporadic over the next few weeks as I deal with the situation.

Putting a value on Felix Hernandez

I am not going to sugar coat this, the 30-year-old is performing like he is done as a fantasy option. Kaput. First, his velocity is at a career low with his previously deadly sinker averaging just over 90 mph. The velocity loss has his K/9 (7.4) at a career low. Additionally, the pitch is not sinking as much as it previous did and it is getting hit hard. Posting a career high 1.1 HR might be keeping him away from the strike zone. His Zone% (42%) is at a career low which has pushed his walk rate to 3.9 BB/9 (career high).

Some of Felix’s struggles could be related to a calf injury he spent time on the DL nursing it. Since returning, he has hasn’t performed any better. Sadly, pitchers can age quickly to a lower talent level. Right now that Felix’s talent level is an unplayable pitcher and I would guess he is projected near a 4.50 ERA for next season.

Felix’s struggles remind me of Justin Verlander’s slide from 2012 to 2014 when his ERA jump about one point a season (2.64 to 3.46 to 4.54) while his velocity drop 1 mph (94.3 to 93.3 to 92.3). Verlander has adjusted and become a decent fantasy option with a faster fastball and has moved away from relying on his changeup. Maybe Hernandez can also.

For Hernandez, I see owners valuing him at his 2016 numbers and I think they are a reasonable place to start. Some regression is likely, but he should also age some. Just pay close attention to his spring training fastball velocity to see if his speed is back up and buy on the low.

Arrieta has signs of an injury

The Cubs’ Jake Arrieta saw a 1.5 mph drop in his fastball in his last start.

Additionally, I saw his name pop up as a player near my spin rate injury threshold with his fastball showing a +100 rpm drop off his season average.

Both factors are tough to ignore. Maybe the Cubs will give him one more start (maybe they know something I don’t like he has a cold). Don’t be surprised one bit if the Cubs shut him down in the next two weeks to get him healthy for the playoffs.

Notes:

• Rubby de la Rosa is back off the DL, his only appearance was in two innings of relief work. His velocity and pitch movements are similar to the values before going on the DL. I like the idea of a taking a late round flier on him in ’17 especially with the potential of a +9 K/9.

One issue with all D-Backs’ pitchers is the defense behind them.

The D-Backs are on pace to have the largest ERA-FIP margin (5.26-4.57=0.68) since the 07 Devil Rayshttps://t.co/7CxWhITHvM

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) September 15, 2016

Having A.J. Pollock back for 2017 will help some and some regression could help to lower the team’s ERA to near its FIP.

• Chris Davis has been dealing with a hand injury all season.

Chris Davis is frustrated by his lingering left hand injury that has been bothering him since April, but it is not going to hold him out of the Orioles’ postseason push.

“It’s been an issue all year,” Davis said before homering in Saturday’s 11-3 win over the Tigers. “It’s not going to get any better until I have time to rest, and I’m obviously not going to rest right now with what’s at hand.”

Davis was pulled from Tuesday’s game against Tampa Bay and he took an extra day of rest on Wednesday, but he said it did not make much of a difference for him after still feeling pain Friday at Detroit.

Just keep this injury in mind when giving Davis a value for 2017.

• Matt Wisler missed a couple of days in early September because of a side injury. The injury really affected his spin rate as seen here:

The injury likely started in early July and is probably still bothering him. The injury is likely behind the difference in his first half 4.47 ERA (4.38 FIP) and second half 6.68 ERA (6.11 FIP).

• About a week ago, I pointed out Marco Estrada had a huge drop in his spin rate and now it is reported he is dealing with a herniated back.

Marco Estrada's fastball in his last had its lowest spin this season & he got knocked aroundhttps://t.co/VIuDjMrMAK pic.twitter.com/w2TMsrjO3U

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) September 8, 2016

Even though I am just getting started using spin rate, some initial results are encouraging at locating pitcher with injuries.

• Michael Wacha came off the DL and threw over 2 mph harder than earlier in the season.

He might be a nice late season pickup on the cheap.