Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Cotton, Marquez, & Margot

September 21, 2016

Cotton was originally signed by the Dodgers, he was just traded to the Athletics in the Rich Hill trade. MLB.com currently has him as the 12th ranked prospect in Oakland’s’ system with the following prospect grades:

Fastball: 60
Curve: 45
Cutter: 45
Changeup: 60
Control: 50
Overall: 50

Additionally, he started out the season as the 9th ranked pitcher in the Dodgers’ system with also an overall 50 grade.

For a game to watch, wanted to I picked his last one when he faced the Astros on August 19 but the A’s camera angle is horrible, so I went with the Royals game on the August 13.

Here are my thoughts the right-handed pitcher.

Centered on the mound and throws home with a 3/4 release. He’s listed at 5’11, so he is probably shorter. Decent poise.
Fastball: 90-94, straight, but “rose” nicely. He seems to have plus control of this pitch, but it has little to no life. Not a plus pitch.
Cutter: 86-89, Maybe a downward break on it. Sometimes release side break. Other times straight. Extremely inconsistent. Could be good pitch, but isn’t right now. It got labeled or called a slider, but no matter the name, it is just one pitch.
Change: 74-78, 12-6 break, curveball looking and curveball speed. He can drop it in for strikes. He owns LHH with it.
Curve: 76-78 12-6 movement with more break than his change. I think these two pitchers are too similar.
He nibbled around the strike zone a little too much once ahead in the count which extended out too many counts.

He is an interesting pitcher to try to piece together because his pitches don’t match a normal pattern. His fastball is OK. The cutter (slider) has potential. The change is a plus pitch. And I am not sure the curve has a place. Of the four pitches, the one which will set his place in the league in the cutter(slider). It can be a good pitch at times. I wonder if at some point he drops one of them like the curve.

I am really having problems putting a value on him. In my prospect database, the three best comps are Rob Zastryzny (2015, 2080), Alex Colome (2014, MLB), and Cody Anderson (2014, MLB). Not great pitchers. Right now, I could see myself taking a chance on him in 2017, but not counting on him.

German Marquez to start today

I am still not going to take a chance on any Rockies’ pitcher. I have vowed to not own one, until a pitcher has a decent few seasons in Colorado. Jon Gray is starting to change my mind, but I want to see him get that ERA under 4.00 at some point.

As for Marquez, he was included in the Jake McGee/Corey Dickerson trade earlier this year. To start the season, he was the #14 prospect with Tampa and 50 grade. Here is his MLB.com grades and some comps.

German Marquez’s Prospect Grade Comps

Name	Year	Report Publication	Fastball	Curveball	Changeup/splitter	Control/Command
German Marquez	2016	MLB	65	55	50	55
Anderson Espinoza	2016	MLB	65	55	55	55
Braden Shipley	2016	MLB	65	55	55	55
Hunter Harvey	2015	MLB	65	55	50	50
Sean Newcomb	2015	MLB	65	55	50	50
C.J. Edwards	2014	MLB	65	60	50	55
Jose Berrios	2015	BA	60	50	50	55
Jose Berrios	2015	MLB	60	55	55	55
Duane Underwood	2016	MLB	65	55	55	50
Ian Clarkin	2016	2080	60	55	50	50
Jameson Tailon	2014	MLB	65	60	55	55
Lucas Sims	2014	MLB	65	60	55	55
Hunter Harvey	2014	MLB	65	55	45	50
Kolby Allard	2016	MLB	60	60	50	55
C.J. Edwards	2015	MLB	65	60	50	50
Grant Holmes	2016	MLB	65	60	50	50
Francis Martes	2016	MLB	65	60	45	55

Some good names, some bad ones. With any other team, I may take a chance, but with a pitcher from Colorado. I will let someone else deal with the heartache for now.

Also, the Padres call up Margot.

While finishing this article, the news of Manuel Margot’s call up came in, so here are some quick comps. First, these are the players with similar grades to his Baseball America grades. Also, I have included MLB.com’s grades and comps because their grades, especially the batting one, was significantly different.

Manuel Margot’s Prospect Grade Comps

Name	Year	Report Publication	Batting	Power	Speed	Defense	Arm
Manuel Margot	2016	BA	50	45	60	60	55
Manuel Margot	2015	BA	50	50	60	60	55
Amed Rosario	2016	MLB	50	45	60	65	55
Dilson Herrera	2014	MLB	50	45	60	55	50
Orlando Arcia	2015	BA	50	40	60	60	60
Amed Rosario	2016	BA	50	40	60	60	60
Amed Rosario	2015	BA	55	50	60	60	60
Raul Mondesi	2014	MLB	55	50	60	60	60
Nick Gordon	2015	MLB	55	40	60	60	60
Nick Gordon	2014	MLB	55	40	60	60	60
Daz Cameron	2016	BA	45	50	55	60	55
David Dahl	2016	MLB	55	50	60	55	60
Tyler Naquin	2014	MLB	55	40	60	55	60
Dansby Swanson	2016	BA	60	45	60	60	55
Dalton Pompey	2014	MLB	55	40	60	55	50
J.P. Crawford	2014	MLB	55	40	55	60	60
Manuel Margot	2014	MLB	55	40	65	60	50

Hitters who performed similarly to Manuel Margot’s Baseball America’s scouting grades over their first three seasons
Starling Marte, Carl Crawford, Cliff Pennington, Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal, Alex Rios, Adam Jones, Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos, Brian Roberts

Manuel Margot’s Prospect Grade Comps

Name	Year	Report Publication	Batting	Power	Speed	Defense	Arm
Manuel Margot	2016	MLB	60	45	65	50	60
Franklin Barreto	2015	MLB	60	45	60	45	60
Anthony Alford	2016	MLB	60	45	70	45	60
Dansby Swanson	2016	MLB	60	45	60	55	55
Franklin Barreto	2015	BA	60	50	60	50	55
Tim Anderson	2015	MLB	55	45	70	50	55
David Dahl	2016	MLB	55	50	60	55	60
Tyler Naquin	2014	MLB	55	40	60	55	60
Tim Anderson	2016	BA	60	50	70	55	55
Tim Anderson	2014	MLB	55	40	70	55	55
Raul A. Mondesi	2015	BA	60	45	70	60	60
Andrew Benintendi	2016	MLB	60	55	60	50	60
Dansby Swanson	2016	BA	60	45	60	60	55
Dansby Swanson	2016	2080	60	50	60	60	60
Nick Gordon	2015	BA	55	50	55	50	60
Daz Cameron	2016	MLB	55	50	55	50	60
Orlando Arcia	2016	MLB	60	45	60	60	65
Trea Turner	2016	BA	60	40	75	50	55

Hitters who performed similarly to Manuel Margot’s MLB.com’s scouting grades over their first three seasons
Jacoby Ellsbury, Jean Segura, Denard Span, Starling Marte, Angel Berroa, Austin Jackson, Fred Lewis, Jason Kipnis, Chone Figgins, Jose Reyes

Overall, the names are not horrible. While his power is graded below average, some of the above comps developed decent pop as they aged. I may not jump to pick him up this season unless my team is hunting for steals. For next season, I will try to own him with steals being harder and harder to get.

Notes

• Gary Sanchez is on a roll with him blasting his 17th home run last night. Looking over the catchers, I could see a scenario where he is the #1 catcher off the board next year. He is going to be another tough person to value in 2017 especially since he is on 50+ HR pace over a full season.

• On Monday, I thought Harper was dealing with some injury and now some news is coming out that his shoulder is bothering him.

Harper is likely to fall into a hot streak, but that’s only if his troublesome upper right shoulder/neck issue improves and allows him unrestricted passes at the baseball. Go back and look at an at-bat he had against the Giants’ Matt Cain on Aug. 6. Harper fouled off a 2–2 pitch and doubled over in pain. By then the injury had already plagued him for about a month. He has played through the discomfort.

The Nationals have denied the report, but something is obviously bothering Harper.

• Justin Bour got off the DL earlier this month because of an ankle injury. Looking at his exit velocity, he is not 100% yet. In 2015, his average exit velocity was 91.7 mph. It was 91.8 mph before the injury. Historically, these values support a near .200 ISO (.218 in 2015 and .258 before the injury). Since returning, his average exit velocity is down to 86 mph or a projected .122 ISO. Well, his ISO isn’t even at the .122 level since he has yet to have an extra-base hit.I would stay away from him for the rest of the season.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG